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  • #137,361
  • Oct 16, 2015 7:54am Oct 16, 2015 7:54am
Quote
Its my anti-leech, anti-lazy, anti-troll, anti-scammer personal FF firewall.

hahaha!
I understand!
(no 'drive-by' traders )

Quote
just ask when in doubt,

Will do!

Cheers Sisse.
  • #137,362
  • Oct 16, 2015 8:21am Oct 16, 2015 8:21am
Quoting sisse
... Its my anti-leech, anti-lazy, anti-troll, anti-scammer personal FF firewall. It does wonders filtering out the real, honest and hard working traders from the rest.
lol you should trade options, people will really leave you alone then....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,363
  • Oct 16, 2015 8:26am Oct 16, 2015 8:26am
Quoting sisse
We'll see how it pans out. Tracking like a hawk 2020.xx as only level in play across the board with lots of noise in the background of bad numbers coming today ...but that its just noise till reports .... sisse
entering the heart of earnings season, I'd bet 2020 settles in the rearview next week....the last chance is now to save the 2015 books and rally into December for a decent positive gain for the year.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,364
  • Oct 16, 2015 9:40am Oct 16, 2015 9:40am
Quoting diggo
{quote} S&P certainly does look tasty at the moment. I'd like to see a quick run into that 204x.xx zone to load up some serious short positions. Gold may already be ripe for picking for the next leg sub 1,000.
Very juicy Level on gold for heavy short. so much confluence + classic AB=CD + FIB Extension 168.....
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  • #137,365
  • Oct 16, 2015 12:11pm Oct 16, 2015 12:11pm
Try listening to a floor trader....
  • #137,366
  • Oct 16, 2015 12:14pm Oct 16, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol you should trade options, people will really leave you alone then....
Well....it is forexfactory...
  • #137,367
  • Oct 16, 2015 12:56pm Oct 16, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} entering the heart of earnings season, I'd bet 2020 settles in the rearview next week....the last chance is now to save the 2015 books and rally into December for a decent positive gain for the year.
All eyes 2020.x for the closing range. Expecting a small shack out around the level for the closing range ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,368
  • Oct 16, 2015 1:07pm Oct 16, 2015 1:07pm
A question to sisse and/or the fool: Yesterday I couldn't help but see a short on the S&P [19(40/30)] though it's only continued rising since yesterday, do you see it going north or south of here?

Regards,
Hat.
I might be wrong.
  • #137,369
  • Edited 2:30pm Oct 16, 2015 2:15pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting hat
A question to sisse and/or the fool: Yesterday I couldn't help but see a short on the S&P [19(40/30)] though it's only continued rising since yesterday, do you see it going north or south of here? Regards, Hat.
Well if you have been following the last few weeks on the topic here after the FED:

--> Fool is looking for a Happy Christmas rally with no hikes until 2016. He will get paid on top if we hold above +/- 2000.xx for expiration at the end of the month.

--> I am not really convince about the current rally (dead cat bounce is my call) and looking for a test 1790.xx before year's end. I am flat as a pancake in equities since the FED but actively looking to short if we lose 2020.xx until the next FED rate announcement later this month...

Today credit to bulls that are going to hold a very hard worked break up (break up 2020.xx). I won't buy the break ...if it goes 2070.xx in the next few days it will go without me as I am not planning to take the long side from this levels but I wont be trigger shy to the other side...

Basically the No hikes Sep + Yellen comments + Minutes are pointing to a hike DEC still as 1st option. Only a very good round of number in the US (i doubt...not expecting) in the next few days with a no hike again (expected) from the FED in Oct will make me revaluate my view in equites ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,370
  • Oct 16, 2015 10:38pm Oct 16, 2015 10:38pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Try listening to a floor trader....
what's that?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,371
  • Oct 16, 2015 10:47pm Oct 16, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Fool is looking for a Happy Christmas rally with no hikes until 2016. He will get paid on top if we hold above +/- 2000.xx for expiration at the end of the month. -->
I am in a variety of SPY and VXX trades too numerous to list, but generally I am looking for a steady grind up for the SnP, 2050 touched next week, 2070 the following week, and back to ranging 2050 - 2100+ in November, possible breakouts to 2150+ by early Dec. For any margin-using time spread I have corresponding bearish spreads, looking for drops back below 1950, similarly stepwise.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,372
  • Oct 17, 2015 6:02pm Oct 17, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} That doesn't matter to me, you're good enough. Just manage your money wisely and don't let your success get over your head. Won't work.
wouldnt that be nuts....

silver
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  • #137,373
  • Oct 17, 2015 7:32pm Oct 17, 2015 7:32pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} wouldnt that be nuts.... silver {image}
What's the production cost?
  • #137,374
  • Oct 17, 2015 7:37pm Oct 17, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} What's the production cost?
Google-fu says about $9.35

It also says production costs go down as oil goes down

Quote
Now, the data that showed the biggest difference was the change in the group’s production cost. Total production cost for the group fell nearly 10% ($53 million) from $586 million in Q3 2014 to $533 million Q1 2015. While the group’s total silver production declined 1 Moz in Q1 2015 compared to Q3 2014, the majority of the cost decline came from lower oil-energy prices.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/top-pri...h-lower-costs/

They lost money as well though. It stands to reason that once it gets too cheap....one of two things happen

1. They find a way to mine it cheaper
2. They stop mining it

I need to find a better source though
  • #137,375
  • Oct 17, 2015 7:54pm Oct 17, 2015 7:54pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Google-fu says about $9.35 It also says production costs go down as oil goes down {quote} http://www.silverdoctors.com/top-pri...h-lower-costs/ They lost money as well though. It stands to reason that once it gets too cheap....one of two things happen 1. They find a way to mine it cheaper 2. They stop mining it I need to find a better source though
I've done quite a bit of research on the subject of "production cost" as I've been scale-in buying.

It's difficult to get a good production cost number since 70% of mined silver is a by-product of mining other metals (copper, zinc, lead, etc....).
So if the mine produces copper, lead, zinc & silver then the miner just needs the selling price of the 4 metals to be more than production costs for them to sell the metals. So if total mining costs are $20, if they get $5 each for copper, lead & zinc they only need $5 for silver to be @ break-even. So how do you determine the cost to mine the silver? As long as the "sum" of the 4 metals can make a profit they could be selling the silver for $3/oz and they would consider this to be above production cost.

If other metals were priced higher now & miners were in a strong financial position they may hold onto the silver for better prices but most miners are hurting with all metals low so they need to sell everything just to cover costs.
  • #137,376
  • Oct 17, 2015 7:57pm Oct 17, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I've done quite a bit of research on the subject of "production cost" as I've been scale-in buying. It's difficult to get a good production cost number since 70% of mined silver is a by-product of mining other metals (copper, zinc, lead, etc....). So if the mine produces copper, lead, zinc & silver then the miner just needs the selling price of the 4 metals to be more than production costs for them to sell the metals. So if total mining costs are $20, if they get $5 each for copper, lead & zinc they only need $5 for silver to be @ break-even....
I caught that as well. Some are saying the production cost is closer to $20

Even so, the same applies. Either they find a way to do it cheaper, or stop doing it.

Hard times brings innovation, oil has proved it again and again. What were they doing when silver was $50 an oz? Shoring up their reserves most likely
  • #137,377
  • Edited Oct 19, 2015 3:25am Oct 18, 2015 5:13am | Edited Oct 19, 2015 3:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well if you have been following the last few weeks on the topic here after the FED: --> Fool is looking for a Happy Christmas rally with no hikes until 2016. He will get paid on top if we hold above +/- 2000.xx for expiration at the end of the month. --> I am not really convince about the current rally (dead cat bounce is my call) and looking for a test 1790.xx before year's end. I am flat as a pancake in equities since the FED but actively looking to short if we lose 2020.xx until the next FED rate announcement later this month... Today...
Hi Sisse, what do u mean by the last sentence? I understand your view on equities as given by the prediction of the first hike in DEC + by expectation of mediocre US macroeconomic numbers. But why would you, as you suggest, change your view in case - 1) very good round of numbers + 2) no hike in OCT (expected), i.e. hike in DEC. The only change to the state/evaluation now would be that we would get "very good round of numbers" - but it would not change anything when it comes to the timing of the first hike because there is only two left FED meetings = in OCT (ruled out) and DEC. So in what way and why would it change your view? Because the good numbers would mean steeper gradual tightening cycle?

And btw. how do you see the W close in EUR/USD? The pinbar looks bearish but as the triangle on W is approaching its end the pinbar does not look convincing at all

Thank you and have a great weekend
  • #137,378
  • Oct 18, 2015 10:52am Oct 18, 2015 10:52am
Hi my decent trader mates!

Signals above daily tf:
Monthly - Buy
Weekly (new!), daily - Sell

Therefore I would like to sell as high it is possible. I don't think it will dive from current levels, first I would like to see a new high (or at least a try to crack current top) with huge sentiment change over retail traders (attacking top with very positive Eur data / very negative Usd data). Buying hysteria and stuffs like that...(TP 1.20 with bold characters from the breakout traders) -> H4 is still buy, so an intraday up move would be logic.

If it's going down from current levels (than the current top already did it's job), than just watching and waiting till new buying opportunities... (again a weekly and daily buy signal)

Good luck and have a great week!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,379
  • Oct 18, 2015 11:37am Oct 18, 2015 11:37am
Quoting Likerty
{quote}...U/J also.. despite climbing here and there, but keeps finding sellers for 115.80...
E/U and Gold positioning for another go higher, but before that - fresh lows for the week should be made. Gold should bounce either in 1171/73 area or 1167/66.
Euro also has two - 1.1320's or 1.1280's
69
  • #137,380
  • Oct 19, 2015 1:22am Oct 19, 2015 1:22am
technically pretty much a down trend for eurusd and with a negative forecast for eur PMI and fears off negative eur minimum bid rate i think this is going down
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