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  • #137,341
  • Oct 15, 2015 7:28am Oct 15, 2015 7:28am
Eyes on US reports ...Expecting zigzag moves for the flow with inline inflation reports but equally important the Philly and NY manufacturing numbers that collapsed last time and triggered the snowball. A confirmation of bad numbers will send shockwaves across equites.

Not much to see 1.137x (with overshoots) and 1.141x with inline to complete the test 1.153x. A W break above 1.149x unlocks the highs ...

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,342
  • Oct 15, 2015 7:35am Oct 15, 2015 7:35am
Quoting sisse
Eyes on US reports ...Expecting zigzag moves for the flow with inline inflation reports but equally important the Philly and NY manufacturing numbers that collapsed last time and triggered the snowball. A confirmation of bad numbers will send shockwaves across equites. Not much to see 1.137x (with overshoots) and 1.141x with inline to complete the test 1.153x. A W break above 1.149x unlocks the highs ... GL all sisse
Hi sisse so when in case like this with inline cpi but core cpi improving, did we just have an overshoot?
edited: Sorry sisse. I think the market has already answered my question
  • #137,343
  • Oct 15, 2015 7:54am Oct 15, 2015 7:54am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Hi sisse so when in case like this with inline cpi but core cpi improving, did we just have an overshoot? edited: Sorry sisse. I think the market has already answered my question
In this case, the CPI is inline (expected, no surprise) so that isn't the mover.
Core CPI, however, takes precedence over the general CPI because the
'food and energy' measurement in the general CPI apparently distorts the data analysis.

If the general CPI was a big surprise (large over/undershoot) then the assessment wouldn't be so clear.
  • #137,344
  • Oct 15, 2015 8:00am Oct 15, 2015 8:00am
Quoting dasilva
{quote} In this case, the CPI is inline (expected, no surprise) so that isn't the mover. Core CPI, however, takes precedence over the general CPI because the 'food and energy' measurement in the general CPI apparently distorts the data analysis. If the general CPI was a big surprise (large over/undershoot) then the assessment wouldn't be so clear.
Always know core cpi is important but doesnt know it was that much ty
  • #137,345
  • Oct 15, 2015 8:41am Oct 15, 2015 8:41am
Quoting sisse
On the rest of the board... Gold is going to hold 1108 [check] unlocking one more time 1190.xx.[check]
...and I will take that. Clearing final target in Gold after the last fast test 1190.xx. In the last couple of sessions we completed all legs from the FED Minutes play... Here clearing a flawless round of trades across the board ....

Quoting sisse
Here actively tracking the close in equites and commodities as we have 2020.xx [check] and 49.9x [check] in play to reload. Long weekend coming with US on holidays it's always a pain in the ass for the euro given that we have a breakout. Tracking 1.137x [check] for the W roll as reference for momentum to complete the short term main target...
On the euro as widely expected back 1.137x for the news. US Equities in the driver sit for the rest of the day ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,346
  • Oct 15, 2015 8:51am Oct 15, 2015 8:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and I will take that. Clearing final target in Gold after the last fast test 1190.xx. In the last couple of sessions we completed all legs from the FED Minutes play... Here clearing a flawless round of trades across the board .... {quote} On the euro as widely expected back 1.137x for the news. US Equities in the driver sit for the rest of the day ... sisse
Do you expect EURUSD to 1.1490 or even to 1.1530 from 1.1370?
  • #137,347
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:08pm Oct 15, 2015 12:08pm
any reason why oil is up even though surplus inventories report? was the anticipation priced in? could it just be a pullback?
  • #137,348
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:28pm Oct 15, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting roobii
any reason why oil is up even though surplus inventories report? was the anticipation priced in? could it just be a pullback?
Could it have something with eia numbers being less than api?
  • #137,349
  • Oct 15, 2015 3:30pm Oct 15, 2015 3:30pm
Slightly bullish close in Euro (no surprises with a roll 1.137x) and Gold (unlocking exhaustion leg 1210.xx) but more importantly Equites breached 2020.xx in a leg that looks technically set to fail (interesting reports and NY open tomorrow).... Are we aligning for a Black Friday/Monday in equites?.

All eyes on S&P 2020.xx as loosing it back could open the floodgates across the board (looks extremely juicy that trade ...thats the one i have been waiting since the Minutes) ....Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload with news tomorrow but equities are the rain maker for the next leg ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,350
  • Oct 15, 2015 4:26pm Oct 15, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting sisse
Slightly bullish close in Euro (no surprises with a roll 1.137x) and Gold (unlocking exhaustion leg 1210.xx) but more importantly Equites breached 2020.xx in a leg that looks technically set to fail (interesting reports and NY open tomorrow).... Are we aligning for a Black Friday/Monday in equites?. All eyes on S&P 2020.xx as loosing it back could open the floodgates across the board (looks extremely juicy that trade ...thats the one i have been waiting since the Minutes) ....Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload with news tomorrow but equities...
When you say "Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload..", I presume you mean for a new leg back up.

But is that not contrary to expecting a big fall in equities? Doesn't such a fall not release more usd, quite apart from a move to safety. Even if this also affects the euro positively, it surely should be less of an effect than on the dollar and should we not then be looking at a continuation down in eurusd, following yesterday's drop?
  • #137,351
  • Oct 15, 2015 8:46pm Oct 15, 2015 8:46pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} When you say "Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload..", I presume you mean for a new leg back up. But is that not contrary to expecting a big fall in equities? Doesn't such a fall not release more usd, quite apart from a move to safety. Even if this also affects the euro positively, it surely should be less of an effect than on the dollar and should we not then be looking at a continuation down in eurusd, following yesterday's drop?
I think thats not at all....
Equities started making inverse correlation with EU last few days. could be a huge pump coming to EU next few session if equities slip down the edge
  • #137,352
  • Oct 15, 2015 10:00pm Oct 15, 2015 10:00pm
Can we go to 1.0993 yet?
  • #137,353
  • Oct 15, 2015 10:44pm Oct 15, 2015 10:44pm
Quoting sisse
Slightly bullish close in Euro (no surprises with a roll 1.137x) and Gold (unlocking exhaustion leg 1210.xx) but more importantly Equites breached 2020.xx in a leg that looks technically set to fail (interesting reports and NY open tomorrow).... Are we aligning for a Black Friday/Monday in equites?. All eyes on S&P 2020.xx as loosing it back could open the floodgates across the board (looks extremely juicy that trade ...thats the one i have been waiting since the Minutes) ....Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload with news tomorrow but equities...
S&P certainly does look tasty at the moment. I'd like to see a quick run into that 204x.xx zone to load up some serious short positions. Gold may already be ripe for picking for the next leg sub 1,000.
  • #137,354
  • Edited Oct 16, 2015 2:41am Oct 15, 2015 11:02pm | Edited Oct 16, 2015 2:41am
Quoting sisse
Equites breached 2020.xx in a leg that looks technically set to fail (interesting reports and NY open tomorrow).... Are we aligning for a Black Friday/Monday in equites?. All eyes on S&P 2020.xx as loosing it back could open the floodgates across the board (looks extremely juicy that trade ...thats the one i have been waiting since the Minutes)
An Oct opex (Fri 10/16) finish above 2040 makes TF's Oct SPY spreads go dingdindingding!!!...I am still betting ffr hike is off the table until Jan 2016 and the 2015 Santa rally has a green light to test/break the Summer highs, yes, that's right 2150+ is in the cards
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,355
  • Oct 16, 2015 12:23am Oct 16, 2015 12:23am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Heyho.... I'm the master of patience now.... don't have one position atm .
And good I've waited, too. Shorted at 1437 and 1472. Both s/o, of course. Next topic: stop optimization....
Fail better.
  • #137,356
  • Edited 2:29am Oct 16, 2015 2:05am | Edited 2:29am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} When you say "Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload..", I presume you mean for a new leg back up. But is that not contrary to expecting a big fall in equities? Doesn't such a fall not release more usd, quite apart from a move to safety. Even if this also affects the euro positively, it surely should be less of an effect than on the dollar and should we not then be looking at a continuation down in eurusd, following yesterday's drop?
*bump* - I had the same question in my mind.

i.e.
fall in equities = rise is USD = fall in XXX/USD crosses (though not a total inverse correlation).
So I was a bit confused also. No doubt Sisse will clarify as always.

Sisse's analysis is always impressive to say the least, and I have a lot of respect for his knowlege.

However, Sisse's posts are sometimes quite esoteric if you haven't been following him for years
and understand his terminology (I'm only half way there).

It would remove erroneous guesswork if Sisse used standard terms like 'short' and 'long' where appropriate
but I guess it just isn't Sisse's style of writing.

It would read better to me (and immediately highlight any typo/conflict) if the paragraph said:

"All eyes on S&P 2020.xx as loosing it back could open the floodgates across the board (looks extremely juicy that 'SHORT' trade ...thats the one i have been waiting since the Minutes) ....Also tracking 1.135x for a chance to reload 'LONG' with news tomorrow but equities are the rain maker for the next leg ...".
(This isn't 'spoon feeding', it is just clarity).

p.s.
The above is just a friendly comment, not a criticism, but I know how this forum works.
So, before anyone posts any snide remarks just because they 'understands everything perfectly'
and feel that anyone else who doesn't understand is some kind of idiot then save that post for another thread.

We're all mature traders here .
  • #137,357
  • Edited 3:00am Oct 16, 2015 2:48am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} *bump* - I had the same question in my mind. i.e. fall in equities = rise is USD = fall in XXX/USD crosses (though not a total inverse correlation). So I was a bit confused also. No doubt Sisse will clarify as always. Sisse's analysis is always impressive to say the least, and I have a lot of respect for his knowlege. However, Sisse's posts are sometimes quite esoteric if you haven't been following him for years and understand his terminology (I'm only half way there). It would remove erroneous guesswork if Sisse used standard terms like...
Since the DAX and ES got below where the free money was handed out (shown relating to time by vertical red line on the chart, and to price by the horizontal lines marking the levels price was at at the open of the day the action was taken), although the daily/hourly moves don't necessarily match this, the correlation between EURUSD and risk on/risk off has stopped being inverse on the weekly chart. Easier to see the previous inverse correlation reverting back on the DAX (neg correlation shown in pink shaded area on DAX chart). Remains to be seen what will happen if equities get above there again, or get below and stay below.
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  • #137,358
  • Oct 16, 2015 2:56am Oct 16, 2015 2:56am
Thanks MissPips!
  • #137,359
  • Oct 16, 2015 7:13am Oct 16, 2015 7:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} An Oct opex (Fri 10/16) finish above 2040 makes TF's Oct SPY spreads go dingdindingding!!!...I am still betting ffr hike is off the table until Jan 2016 and the 2015 Santa rally has a green light to test/break the Summer highs, yes, that's right 2150+ is in the cards
I just have a strong bad feeling in equities. Technically, it looks more and more like a "dead cat" bounce by the day and fundamentally the 'no hike' relief rally is pretty much over as the FED can only kick the can so far this time (what 1 or 2 extra months in 2106?) ... call it experience, hunch or a random bias. I am only looking to the other side until the next Fed meeting...

---<>--- you know what they say "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ..... then " it probably is a duck [dead cat bounce]" ...

We'll see how it pans out. Tracking like a hawk 2020.xx as only level in play across the board with lots of noise in the background of bad numbers coming today ...but that its just noise till reports ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,360
  • Oct 16, 2015 7:31am Oct 16, 2015 7:31am
Quoting bullionman
.... However, Sisse's posts are sometimes quite esoteric if you haven't been following him for years and understand his terminology (I'm only half way there). It would remove erroneous guesswork if Sisse used standard terms like 'short' and 'long' where appropriate but I guess it just isn't Sisse's style of writing.
...

Its my anti-leech, anti-lazy, anti-troll, anti-scammer personal FF firewall. It does wonders filtering out the real, honest and hard working traders from the rest.

My 2 cents, just ask when in doubt, post your market view with whatever slang word (real traders will get the point...I guarantee you) you want and share you opinion especially if you have a different view with valid arguments here or via PM....

The slang, market talk and not chew & dumb down every single sentence only filter the lazy and increase the level of the discussion for those few who regularly are trading for real and not just demo trading or gambling with crumbs here and there in their free time ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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