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  • #61,541
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:11pm Oct 14, 2015 11:11pm
Good morning all, well morning in my time zone, are we all ready to kick some ass, I have a good question I have being pondiring, maybe emmanuel7788 can help me with, I normally only take trades with the direction of the long term trend, my question is so for example, I want to short on 4h TF, its a downtrend on 4h TF, I go to higher TF, its a downtrend on Daily TF aswell, BUT ITS A UPTREND IN THE WEEKLY TF, will that still be a good trade to take or not??
  • #61,542
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:19pm Oct 14, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} Hi Emmanuel, Are you referring to the Fib Hi/Lo of the previous H4 candle that closed about 8 mins ago? Thank in advanced for the clarification. Best, N
yes, the last H4 that closed. that is the setup candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 15 Oct H4 Fib 38-50 entry.png Size: 67 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,543
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:30pm Oct 14, 2015 11:30pm
Quoting stefan17
Good morning all, well morning in my time zone, are we all ready to kick some ass, I have a good question I have being pondiring, maybe emmanuel7788 can help me with, I normally only take trades with the direction of the long term trend, my question is so for example, I want to short on 4h TF, its a downtrend on 4h TF, I go to higher TF, its a downtrend on Daily TF aswell, BUT ITS A UPTREND IN THE WEEKLY TF, will that still be a good trade to take or not??

That depends on the trading range of the currency pair.
Let look at both EURAUD and GBPAUD, the previous weeks were bearish, but this week these went into correction so we see Daily were bullish Bias.
we can trade against the Weekly in the correction following the Daily trade bias. there is enough room for making pips.

But if we strictly want to trade following the Weekly Trend or Bias, then selling in H4 means we have to face the drawdown during the correction/retracement ealry this week. Not a good idea knowing that retracement can be deeper than 50%. But trading with MEE/ME we can use the retracement to Build up positions but we must watch our drawdown and use Position Sizing to manage our risks. It's no fun when we want to recover from drawdowns. Any drawdowns above 10% is very difficut to recover that is why I use 1% risk and chop that into 5 smaller trades of 0.2% risk.

How to Identify Trend and Trade Bias? {Link} click link.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,544
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:39pm Oct 14, 2015 11:39pm
Morning all,

This was my big picture on EURJPY. Are we not inside a WRB?

Definatly bullish but i'm looking at 137..

Best of luck today,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,545
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:42pm Oct 14, 2015 11:42pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} that's what the smart money wants us to see ... 'bouncing off', so don't fall for the trap becasue the market often set us up. Some think they can catch bottoms by wanting to catch the turning early. we wait for and see the price reaction at support and resistance, then we decide our next move. a FIb 38/50 of the H4 Hi-Lo is good retracement entry.
Big retrace now -- hoping for bounce off 200 ema on m15 and S/R level
  • #61,546
  • Oct 14, 2015 11:52pm Oct 14, 2015 11:52pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} That depends on the trading range of the currency pair. Let look at both EURAUD and GBPAUD, the previous weeks were bearish, but this week these went into correction so we see Daily were bullish Bias. we can trade against the Weekly in the correction following the Daily trade bias. there is enough room for making pips. But if we strictly want to trade following the Weekly Trend or Bias, then selling in H4 means we have to face the drawdown during the correction/retracement ealry this week. Not a good idea knowing that retracement can be...
Thanks Emmanuel that helped allot, gives me a much better understanding
  • #61,547
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:20am Oct 15, 2015 12:20am
Quoting robuk
{quote} Big retrace now -- hoping for bounce off 200 ema on m15 and S/R level
no hope. Cut loss fast like Big E.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,548
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:41am Oct 15, 2015 12:41am
something must have spooked the euro.
all EUR pairs falling ..... I take profits
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,549
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:41am Oct 15, 2015 12:41am
Hi
Nice to see thread with someone who apparently knows a lot and shares his knowledge. It goes a long way back...
Trying to see if I get you guys.
In this example, you would have entered and be stopped, correct? Or am i missing something?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,550
  • Oct 15, 2015 12:49am Oct 15, 2015 12:49am
Quoting thewriter30
Hi Nice to see thread with someone who apparently knows a lot and shares his knowledge. It goes a long way back... Trying to see if I get you guys. In this example, you would have entered and be stopped, correct? Or am i missing something? {image}
Hi,

Edit: I did not see the blue mark circle around your TDI. Do not simply trade the TDI cross especially after there is a weekend gap down. let the gap be filled first.
TDI is 'stupid' blind indicator, it does not see price gaps.

if you had buy following the previous week trend/bias, you should hold and let it test the previous high.... then we see if that continues.

also look at GBPUSD, when will it fall?


where have your been? have not seen you lately.
come back to this thread and participate. lots to learn and share here.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,551
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:06am Oct 15, 2015 1:06am
Currently in GBP/JPY Short, trade still going 80 PIPS sofar
  • #61,552
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:10am Oct 15, 2015 1:10am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} that H4 close above the WRB high and the TDI Green Price Line cross the Yellow Market Base Line. So technically, it is good for buy setup. Risk is 70pips below the last low i.e. this current week low that is about 0.5ADR(100 days). Good to go.
Hi Emmanuel,

I thought you were long on this. How did you manage this trade? Are you still holding? I ask this to learn.

Cheers,

okoso
  • #61,553
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:14am Oct 15, 2015 1:14am
Quoting okoso
{quote} Hi Emmanuel, I thought you were long on this. How did you manage this trade? Are you still holding? I ask this to learn. Cheers, okoso

got out -70pips....when LO broke down.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,554
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:20am Oct 15, 2015 1:20am
Hi
I feel welcome. THANKS!
I was thinking of opening my own thread...something along the lines Trading for idiots (in a good way of course) Trying to all help each other....I see a lot of "I MADE 21343 PIPS" sort of posts ....Sounds like showing off (again no disrespect) but it helps no one. Also i don't see the "I lost 3243242 pips" sort of posts.....the real ones, I am still in the 95% who plainly loses. So 38 out of the 40 actually viewing this now are FX losers ...
I was away because I lost a fortune. Having said that , it was mainly emotional, lost track of systematic trading and logic...sad story.
Anyyyyhow...I never give up, and re-discovered your thread. Most Gurus seem gone, you are still here...how have you been? Living of FX already?

Ok, that GAP explanation was great, so simply and yet I did not see it.!!!
Another one, sorry: Daily AUD USD chart. Another fail entry it seems. I guess Daily may not work seems it's full of gaps right? every 5 bars

As you can see i am wiser...little but enough to learn all the BADs before getting greedy with the GOODs
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  • #61,555
  • Oct 15, 2015 1:57am Oct 15, 2015 1:57am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} no hope. Cut loss fast like Big E.
Unfortunately I went to sleep , trying to be like Big E, and my stop got hit - 60
But I got 'em all back on EA , plus a few extra + 70 , so all is well I live to fight another day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,556
  • Oct 15, 2015 2:01am Oct 15, 2015 2:01am
Quoting stefan17
Currently in GBP/JPY Short, trade still going 80 PIPS sofar
Closed GBP/JPY Short, was pulling to much back for my liking 45 PIPS PROFIT
  • #61,557
  • Oct 15, 2015 3:10am Oct 15, 2015 3:10am
Quoting emmanuel7788
something must have spooked the euro. all EUR pairs falling ..... I take profits
ECB not wanting the euro so high is what happened.
That's also why I haven't trade euro pairs all that much except eurusd. Central banks are fighting each other over lower currency. Except Fed and BoE who want to raise rate.
  • #61,558
  • Oct 15, 2015 3:44am Oct 15, 2015 3:44am
Quote
o look at GBPUSD, when will it fall?

Emmanuel, I avoid the GBPUSD usually. I just dont get it. it has been in a consolidation mode for ages, sudden moves with no technical logic behind (that I can understand)
Will it fall? why? What are the fundamentals?
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  • #61,559
  • Oct 15, 2015 4:06am Oct 15, 2015 4:06am
Another BO attempt .... Doing the same thing over and over and expecting the outcome to be different

Now I'm in a position were I like being bullish but S/L way to close and volatility is going to take this stop out for sure. Pretty hard to close this out but I think it's the right thing to do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,560
  • Oct 15, 2015 5:20am Oct 15, 2015 5:20am
I went short on EA H4, now it's pulling back, any suggestion/comments plz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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