EURUSD

i'm Long G/J small [email protected] [email protected]

As predicted last Friday, silver to have a clean breakout.

The only traders selling in the low 14's were the longs from 2009, who bought at $9 or $10.

They were selling into some strong liquidity (fresh spec longs, and shorts being closed) at roughly a 40% profit.

Sure they would have liked to sell all their positions at a 200 to 400% profit but there wasn't much liquidity in the $25-$50 range

Want to try again around 0.7194

on a side note, (own personal views, please do not trade off this - just wanted to share) i met some old physical crude traders friends over coffee the other day.. but the general gist i get seems like people are starting to re position for a higher crude with $40 as the cost of production base on Saudi's ghawar... $60 looks like a fair price on the 20's so i guess a flattener should be in order.

By that theory, i think that the dollar is gonna see some downside pressure... This is how i'm positioning

Longer TF: (1 - 3 months)

Long AUD from 0.70 (adding and tp at 0.74)
Long C01 from 48 (adding and setting trailing -> 58 will take me out)
Long GBP from 1.52 (on break and retest - looking for 1.54)
Long CT10, Short CT30b (steepening)

Sector rotation out of financials into healthcare pharms and consumer companies that have been underweight the last few quarters


Shorter TF: (Intraday)
Intraday Scalp range of EURUSD (1.11 - 1.13)
This pair is crap... EURO now primarily more as a safe haven than USD, correlated with yen.. absolutely bonkers... Divergence of policy means that i don't want to get my balls busted..


Neutral views
US equities index (SP500)


Essentially my view is this... in the Short term, we will see a rebound in some commodity prices due to the instability in the M/E and a cutting of production in the US coupled with EL NINO will see the dollar come under pressure.

Which means that that is generally good for the US fed as they can then raise rates in the slightly longer tf in march 2016 without worrying too much about the strength of the USD that will make them uncompetitive... A pick up in inflation due to rising prices will also give them the reason for hiking....

There in lies my neutral view for SP500 because the US will continue to do well in the longer term but in the meanwhile, the hike might dampen people's mood...
I am rotating into consumer and pharms as a defensive measure (aging population and pick up in spending)

I am putting on a steepener 10s30s as i think we will see ST IR start to pick up but the Long end of the curve to not pick up as fast due to growing (but slower and less worrying) inflation in the Long run.

I'm still waiting..to the Up side....

Somewhere around .7150/80 would align w/1.5600

10-4

I just bought EURUSD at .1214 with stop at .1208, when the resistance at .1220 is broken, the way for the bulls is free.

@KiwiTrader

7137 being tested now in AU..

Nice call.

I think it can go for 7155

Yea I cant find anything either with a simple google search. hmmm, I wonder.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...ccalendars.htm

Oct 28th. It's their next meeting. You can take a look at federalreserve.gov for more info.

Edit: oops typo

October27-28
Thank you my friend, you are a true ninja in disguise.



Enjoy.

Too tempting
Big fat divergence (on every time frame up to 4hour)

Still think it will go for .7190 but needs to consolidate first

the target is now irrelevant

coming up

Below I have few more numbers. since long chop, area is a bit stacked. 1,1152...1,1136...1,1086

edit: and yeh, as expected got another level cut and running for that UTL. UJ now not looking good

s/l -$1200?

one day i'll be on your level.

the trend is your friend

think of the upside