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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #58,081
  • Oct 6, 2015 1:32am Oct 6, 2015 1:32am
Quoting Exodus
...is that paint dry yet?
My research also coincide with you,

in the long term this looks to go UP

but in case that the pair test lower levels before I see several supports like 119.8 and others below, but the big support would be @ 119.00 ish

but I doub that it will go all the way there.

right now Im on a small short. with a SL@ 120.6 and TP@ 120. but I did not bet the farm just a couple of chickens.
  • #58,082
  • Oct 6, 2015 5:14am Oct 6, 2015 5:14am
The pair is back to near 120.30 level, on the downside, support can be found at 120.06, break below would lead to further loss.
  • #58,083
  • Oct 6, 2015 7:21am Oct 6, 2015 7:21am
Quoting Ngp
{quote} In your experiences do you find that this pair is controlled or influenced more by the dollar and US stocks, or the yen and japan's nikkei 225. I would agree with this outlook however the 225 in japan kept climbing today as well topped out around 18400 and seemed to slowly drag U/J up with it.
Maybe I have flawed thinking about this, but here is what I generally believe.

Whilst the Japanese stock market is open a strong run up on the Nikkei produces a strong(-ish) run up on UJ. Getting hold of volume data for the Nikkei is something I have not yet tried, so I think I will.

I expect that the Nikkei influence recedes when the Japanese stock market is closed. I expect this because real-money trading weakens the Yen when the Nikkei rises, and I expect real-money trading to reduce when the stock market has closed.

Conversely, if there is a bull-storm on the US stock markets on any day I expect the US$ to weaken during trading hours, and likewise when there is a sell-off the US$ should strengthen.

Yesterday there was a strong start to the week on stock markets around the globe. That period between 00:00 and 05:00 GMT did not show as big a lift as it has done, so maybe the volume was low. A similar rise on the US markets produced very little effect..... Maybe risk is still 'off'.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #58,084
  • Oct 6, 2015 7:42am Oct 6, 2015 7:42am
UJ long 120.38 SL .23 ... lets see ...
  • #58,085
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:02am Oct 6, 2015 8:02am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Maybe I have flawed thinking about this, but here is what I generally believe. Whilst the Japanese stock market is open a strong run up on the Nikkei produces a strong(-ish) run up on UJ. Getting hold of volume data for the Nikkei is something I have not yet tried, so I think I will. I expect that the Nikkei influence recedes when the Japanese stock market is closed. I expect this because real-money trading weakens the Yen when the Nikkei rises, and I expect real-money trading to reduce when the stock market has closed. Conversely, if there...
Thanks Exodus...
  • #58,086
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:02am Oct 6, 2015 8:02am
Quoting liquidice
UJ long 120.38 SL .23 ... lets see ...
TP target?
  • #58,087
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:15am Oct 6, 2015 8:15am
No point in guessing the near-term direction...
Consolidating below 200-day SMA after a sharp fall...
121.20-30 remains immediate strong resistance and a break below 118.50 would confirm a retest of August lows...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH406102015.png Size: 11 KB
  • #58,088
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:43am Oct 6, 2015 8:43am
Quoting Ngp
{quote} TP target?
No tp just yet... I want to see how the price react... Quite sticky for now...
  • #58,089
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:46am Oct 6, 2015 8:46am
Quoting hippiedog
{quote} Ha tell me about it. Jump on G/U or Aud/Nzd both looking good for 100 pip buys after breakout. Plus NZD news tonight. But for the sake of this thread usd/jpy usd/jpy usd/jpy usd/jpy its all about usd/jpy this post
They both came home for 100 pips lads so you know, hope you took them
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #58,090
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:58am Oct 6, 2015 8:58am
Quoting liquidice
{quote} No tp just yet... I want to see how the price react... Quite sticky for now...
out 120.45 .. actually my TP at .50 ... I'm just a loser in letting the profits run ...
  • #58,091
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:42pm Oct 6, 2015 8:42pm
Quote
Overall, although various factors support the BoJ's optimistic outlook, JPY strength on risk aversion and JPY weakness on further easing appear to be offsetting. Such conditions will hang over the BoJ's monetary policy meeting on 30 October. Although the options market continues to favor JPY strength, speculation for further easing could gain traction through end-October.
How far can this pair go?
https://www.vinsonfinancials.com/en/...nto-30-october
  • #58,092
  • Oct 6, 2015 9:22pm Oct 6, 2015 9:22pm
I think JPY can go short when M30 chart AO crossover from top to bottom because day chat AO is below 0 line and although H4 AO is above 0 line but is in red which show the buying power is weak.

When M30 trying to crossover from bottom to top, it fail and fractal showing lower high. High chance when M30 crossover from top to bottom, it will push H4 AO from above 0 line to crossover and align with day chart AO.

This is my personal view and please correct me or share with me if anyone got other opinions.


Thanks
  • #58,093
  • Oct 6, 2015 10:25pm Oct 6, 2015 10:25pm
Its back at daily support. Playing ping pong. Until it breaks cleanly one way or the other I will continue to step aside.
  • #58,094
  • Oct 6, 2015 10:53pm Oct 6, 2015 10:53pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Thanks! Nothing complex just the Fibonacci retracement and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and of course pivot points The trend lines and channels are just hand drawn, not random, but no set in stone, certainly subjective on my part. I am looking for confluence (a situation in which two or more things come together or happen at the same time) in this case a level of support confirmed from different indicators, etc etc Already 20 pips in the green, SL moved to BE. Free trade, done for the week (well except for my Kiwi short disaster)
Hello Expo33

Just write to thank for the advice that you provide time ago, I still on the process of learning it, but is very helpful.

have a successful trade.
  • #58,095
  • Oct 7, 2015 3:28am Oct 7, 2015 3:28am
Quoting Ngp
interesting will read more into it hippie, always interesting to read what is working for others...
Hey Ngp just updated image url to the thread if you do want more info. Cheers.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #58,096
  • Oct 7, 2015 10:16am Oct 7, 2015 10:16am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post8528718
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #58,097
  • Oct 7, 2015 10:20am Oct 7, 2015 10:20am
short 119.81, SL .96, TP .45
  • #58,098
  • Oct 7, 2015 11:57am Oct 7, 2015 11:57am
Quoting liquidice
short 119.81, SL .96, TP .45
Ouch .. got stopped ...
  • #58,099
  • Oct 7, 2015 2:21pm Oct 7, 2015 2:21pm
If someone is going to go short (or long for that matter) when price is stuck in a range, the time to do it is when it at the top of the range (short) or bottom (long). Not the other way around.

HTH
  • #58,100
  • Oct 7, 2015 6:54pm Oct 7, 2015 6:54pm
Break below 118.33 would confirm a bearish trend.
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