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Trading Made Simple

  • #61,061
  • Oct 4, 2015 8:24am Oct 4, 2015 8:24am
Quoting emmanuel7788
GBPUSD Week 41 5 to 9 Oct: GU still bearish as seen in the MN chart.
Globally (MN) now the pair is in its normal range of 1.48-1.71. A pair of three times unsuccessfully tried to overcome the level of 1.48.
On W1 we see an indefinite market, which will be resolved this week.
In D1 we see that the size of the bearish candle decreased lower shadows become shorter, and the upper longer. Candle base configuration with dual enhanced divergence, and a white candle closed above the 1,516 level, which for a long time is the level of support. (Last 20 days the price is in the range 1.516-1.584, which increases the probability of upward price movement)
In H4, H1 and M15 price is testing the 1,516 level
Likely price will move up to the level of 1.53
Trading plan:
A - looking for input on the purchase on H4 H1 after departing from 1.516
B - if the price fixes below 1.504 are looking for input on sale for the purpose of 1.49-1.48.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-MN.jpg Size: 641 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-W.jpg Size: 655 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-D.jpg Size: 588 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-H4.jpg Size: 536 KB
  • #61,062
  • Edited 11:06am Oct 4, 2015 10:56am | Edited 11:06am
Trading is all about ... What do I see (Market data) ... What does it mean (Data Interpretation / Analysis) ... and What do I do (Action)
And this is how I see the next week ... Use your discretion to enter n exit the trades ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc TPD - October 1st week.doc   32 KB | 394 downloads
  • #61,063
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:51pm Oct 4, 2015 3:51pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {quote} Hi, That is a very good document to have. I used that in 2007 and develop my trading business plan and since then I have still the same content and layout. This same document was used in the development of TMS-II in 2013. What is important is that every trader must have some sort of a trading plan and follow that every day when you trade. The chapter 12 is where you prepare your trade setups, entries and exits - with both charts examples and descriptions, is a very important part of this document. This same chapter should be use...
As it turns out chapter 12 is exactly the chapter that needs to be completed for me

Describing setups for 1 timeframe will be a good start for now. I will try to add other stuff once I have mastered one ..

Good week trading all
  • #61,064
  • Oct 4, 2015 5:19pm Oct 4, 2015 5:19pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Big Picture Planning ; Post#27,200 Post#30,541
Hi. Emmanuel7788!
I read and try Big Picture Planning. The system build support and resistance lines is not necessary - all packed schedule lines. We need some way to allocate only meaningful.
  • #61,065
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:02am Oct 5, 2015 12:02am
EJ - Top down analysis ......

Monthly – At present Price is coiling around previous areas of Resistance and consolidation. Though, September candle closed below the open, it could not close below the previous Key Price Level of and BRN 133.00. Market is not overbought and the oscillator being right on 50 line, market sentiment is bullish.
Weekly – Same scenario as Monthly candle adding to the fact that the last 2 candles have bigger lower wick, indicating that the bulls are gaining the control.
Daily – The 1st candle of October was a combination of hammer and Pull back Candle Reversal Formation with higher close than the open and Friday closed above the previous candle high. Now, the market is trying for a bullish rotation on 200 EMA.
4H – Strongly bullish with Price making HL’s and the oscillator climbing up from 50 line. Market not overbought.
1H – Market is overbought. But, after Friday quadruple bottom, market is steadily going up with smaller retracements. Bulls seem to have total control.
Comments - I’m a BUYER ONLY, till I see something happening on higher time frames, to suggest the opposite
  • #61,066
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:03am Oct 5, 2015 12:03am
GJ - Top down analysis ...

Monthly – Market is overbought and at previous area of resistance. Sentiment is strongly bullish and the dip in August and September was more to do with market being at heavy overbought zone than a change in the sentiment. The dip seems to be over now and the market is heading in its original uptrend direction.
Weekly – While the price went up, the oscillator has printed symmetrical double bottom. Market not overbought.
Daily – Here, while the price made double bottom, the oscillator is going up right from heavy oversold area. Market also tested the previous areas of Support, unable to break and close below those zones. Bullish bias is returning big time.
4H – Market not overbought and the oscillator climbing up above 50 line indicates that North is the only way.
1H – Nothing to write much here, except that after NFP, price is printing HL’s and HH’s, the basic definition of an uptrend.
Comments - I’m a BUYER ONLY, till I see something happening on higher time frames, to suggest the opposite.
  • #61,067
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:03am Oct 5, 2015 12:03am
EN - Top down analysis ...

Monthly - September candle turned out to be an inside bar. Market is overbought and at previous resistance zone.
Weekly – Market is way overbought. After an Inverted hammer 3 weeks ago, the last 2 weekly candles have closed below the open. But both of them have wicks at both ends. The dips might largely be due to heavy overbought conditions. Right now, market is testing previous areas of resistance and support.
Daily – Market is testing the same areas that it tested and failed to close below, couple of times both in August and September. Will it succeed this time? Looking at candle pattern and coupled with market not yet overbought scenario, I do not think so. Until the market breaks and closes below previous resistance of 1.7275 / 1.7250, it is risky to be a bear.
4H – The price has tested this level, 5 times in 7 weeks, failing every time to break and close below this level. Market not overbought.
1H – Friday Low is holding the price from below and there is a bullish divergence just above the oversold region.
Comments – Trade shorter time frames, till some clarity comes
  • #61,068
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:04am Oct 5, 2015 12:04am
GN - Top down analysis ...

Monthly – September candle turned out to be an inside bar. Market is way overbought and a classic trend line (EMA 89) rejection.
Weekly – After a triple top, market is selling off from way overbought region. Market, right now, is at the area, from where it started heading up again.
Daily – Market not overbought. Looking at the candle formations, bear pressure to be diminishing. Price is kind of stalled at previous area of resistance and consolidation.
4H – While price made symmetrical double bottom, the oscillator is going up from oversold region, bulls are taking control.
1H – Nothing except that the oscillator is climbing from oversold region.
Comments – Trend is up in higher time frame. Wait till shorter time frames gel and align with higher time frame and then go long.
  • #61,069
  • Oct 5, 2015 3:17am Oct 5, 2015 3:17am
Some good moves since Tokyo open today.

Took this GBPNZD H4 trade. Exit +50pips, re-enter 2 positions as p[rice momentum move lower +50 +88pips. With one open position now will exit at 50pips.
All trades in the direction of the TDI and Stoch.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD week 41 5 Oct H4 trades.png Size: 35 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,070
  • Oct 5, 2015 4:16am Oct 5, 2015 4:16am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Some good moves since Tokyo open today. Took this GBPNZD H4 trade. Exit +50pips, re-enter 2 positions as p[rice momentum move lower +50 +88pips. With one open position now will exit at 50pips. All trades in the direction of the TDI and Stoch. {image}
Hi, Big Emm!
A question, if I may: How come you did not hold back from selling into support? I would have been afraid to sell there, although the indis were pointing in the right direction.
Thanks in advance for your answer!
  • #61,071
  • Oct 5, 2015 4:33am Oct 5, 2015 4:33am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Hi, Big Emm! A question, if I may: How come you did not hold back from selling into support? I would have been afraid to sell there, although the indis were pointing in the right direction. Thanks in advance for your answer!

Hi,

Look at the lower TF H1. After Fridays' NFP it closed very bearish and today open was a gap down. Once that gap was filled, the selling continue. That's market sentiments bearish outlook ahead of negativeUK PMI.
Yes, there is support seen on the Weekly, but with selling momentum the support can be broken. We mitigate this risk with position sizing and ME/ME.
Anyway last night Big Picture Planning conclusion was bearish for GA, GN, GC and also EA, EN, EC. So this week we look to sell these GBP and EUR cross pairs.

Also took GA H4 with ME/ME.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD week 41 5 Oct H4 trades..png Size: 38 KB


regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,072
  • Oct 5, 2015 4:56am Oct 5, 2015 4:56am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, Look at the lower TF H1. After Fridays' NFP it closed very bearish and today open was a gap down. Once that gap was filled, the selling continue. That's market sentiments bearish outlook ahead of negativeUK PMI. Yes, there is support seen on the Weekly, but with selling momentum the support can be broken. We mitigate this risk with position sizing and ME/ME. Anyway last night Big Picture Planning conclusion was bearish for GA, GN, GC and also EA, EN, EC. So this week we look to sell these GBP and EUR cross pairs. Also took GA H4 with...
Behold all ye . a miracle has happened -- I had a winning trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 5 10 15.png Size: 60 KB
  • #61,073
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:38am Oct 5, 2015 5:38am
Long at LO for quick 40 pips, closed when new h1 bar hesitated below resistance with new due
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ _ H1.png Size: 60 KB
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #61,074
  • Oct 5, 2015 5:44am Oct 5, 2015 5:44am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, Look at the lower TF H1. After Fridays' NFP it closed very bearish and today open was a gap down. Once that gap was filled, the selling continue. That's market sentiments bearish outlook ahead of negativeUK PMI. Yes, there is support seen on the Weekly, but with selling momentum the support can be broken. We mitigate this risk with position sizing and ME/ME. Anyway last night Big Picture Planning conclusion was bearish for GA, GN, GC and also EA, EN, EC. So this week we look to sell these GBP and EUR cross pairs. Also took GA H4 with...
Nice trade Emmanuel, well done
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #61,075
  • Oct 5, 2015 6:14am Oct 5, 2015 6:14am
Quoting robuk
{quote} Behold all ye . a miracle has happened -- I had a winning trade {image}
well done on that one , hope many green pips to you
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #61,076
  • Oct 5, 2015 6:33am Oct 5, 2015 6:33am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} well done on that one , hope many green pips to you
Hello, The ScorpS!
I don't know if you've seen it, but I sent you a message a while ago. I'd really appreciate the answer. Thanks in advance!
  • #61,077
  • Oct 5, 2015 6:33am Oct 5, 2015 6:33am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} well done on that one , hope many green pips to you
Thanks TSS and so good to see you doing so well , which I always knew you would . Keep up the good work .
  • #61,078
  • Oct 5, 2015 7:09am Oct 5, 2015 7:09am
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} Nice trade Emmanuel, well done
thanks TSS.
You are doing well ...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,079
  • Oct 5, 2015 7:20am Oct 5, 2015 7:20am
Quoting robuk
{quote} Behold all ye . a miracle has happened -- I had a winning trade {image}
Hi Rob,

Good trade though a bit late in entry. I see you got the basics and you should do well when you focus in the higher TFs like H4 and D1.
You just need to work on the timing of the day when you will look for trade setups and be discipline doing that.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #61,080
  • Oct 5, 2015 7:24am Oct 5, 2015 7:24am
GBPJPY week 41 5 Oct H4 trade.

Took this trade when Tokyo open today. Target the recent high and BRN183.00.

We should now look at how today D1 candle will close and if we have a D1 buy setup tomorrow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY week 41 5 Oct H4 trade.png Size: 38 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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