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  • #1,029,941
  • Oct 3, 2015 3:37pm Oct 3, 2015 3:37pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} The last four (all in blue because all were red, so should have been EUR positive) Edit: Ooops, was missing one. Reloaded pic {image}
I see you like to analyse the past, me too. I'll give you a hint how you can trade nfp in the future.

You can either trade before or after release. Second option is safer. Unless you get obvious signs like yesterday then you take your position before.

Anyway lets get back to the safer way. NFP reaction has only a few after scenarios/patterns. If you're smart enough you can go back, extract each one of them and mark them your way i.e. A, B, C... I'm not talking about what's gonna happen within next few days but minutes/hours after release.
i.e. if the price goes in one direction, retraces (HFT SL hunt) quickly after x amount of time then continues rally after y time, it's a pattern A;
if it's not gonna retrace after a few minutes, it's gonna go furher and reverse deeper after x amount of time - pattern B
and so on...

If you can spot which scenario algos start to run after few minutes you can get a big chunk even after the release.

These patterns are not identical but similar enough to be spotted. The above are just general examples how it should be analysed.

You may ask what was yesterday's scenario?
April's nfp.
  • #1,029,942
  • Oct 3, 2015 4:12pm Oct 3, 2015 4:12pm
Interesting note: I'm syncing eurusd exchange rate with fed's official numbers (here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/hist/ ). Last time did it in first weekend of May. Last rate was 1.1194. Did it today and huh last rate is 1.1192 - nothing changed so far!
  • #1,029,943
  • Oct 3, 2015 4:18pm Oct 3, 2015 4:18pm
hi all, hope you having great weekend,
my opinion is that To go with the majority of Asia markets viewers or analyses ,although its bit like gambling ,but hay No pain no gain
cheers all and good luck coming week
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #1,029,944
  • Oct 4, 2015 1:10am Oct 4, 2015 1:10am
Quoting KzX
{quote} I see you like to analyse the past, me too. I'll give you a hint how you can trade nfp in the future. You can either trade before or after release. Second option is safer. Unless you get obvious signs like yesterday then you take your position before. Anyway lets get back to the safer way. NFP reaction has only a few after scenarios/patterns. If you're smart enough you can go back, extract each one of them and mark them your way i.e. A, B, C... I'm not talking about what's gonna happen within next few days but minutes/hours after release....
Interesting idea.Thanks! Here's more of them. (They are labeled for the date of the release not the actual month's payrolls BTW).
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  • #1,029,945
  • Oct 4, 2015 2:20am Oct 4, 2015 2:20am
Quoting KzX
{quote} I see you like to analyse the past, me too. I'll give you a hint how you can trade nfp in the future. You can either trade before or after release. Second option is safer. Unless you get obvious signs like yesterday then you take your position before. Anyway lets get back to the safer way. NFP reaction has only a few after scenarios/patterns. If you're smart enough you can go back, extract each one of them and mark them your way i.e. A, B, C... I'm not talking about what's gonna happen within next few days but minutes/hours after release....
one fundamental miss I had yesterday which should have been so obvious to me...Previous number was 136k trending down, the projected number was 201-203k depending on the site...there was no way that the actual was going to be close to 200k, 175k would have been a stretch and even at 180, dollar would have been sold...because it was quite away from projected...at 142k it was better than previous but still waaaayyy off mark. Just comparing projected to last numbers should have been so obvious. Although I didn't get burned, I lost most profits on carrying short. Another hint was the subtle hint by KiwiTr about demand levels at 55, he obviously had some info I could not see but was letting me know that there was demand at near 150 and they were going to hold it, reason being...they were loading up on longs...hindsight is 2020 but I neglected to see such an obvious fundamental analysis that should have been staring me in the face...trading after release was easier since after the massive profit taking there were no more buyers, but I should have got the real move AND the reaction. hopefully better foresight next time for me
  • #1,029,946
  • Oct 4, 2015 5:56am Oct 4, 2015 5:56am
1.12 is like a magnet!
  • #1,029,947
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:38am Oct 4, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If worry opening price will jump over your stop Did you look at this chart? Gave hint but you didn't bite {image}
Just saw this.

Hard for me to track multiple currencies during the day. Most is taken on mobile. I'll try and pay attention better....problem is I have to write down to memorize fib levels to trade from mobile. That crude trade was just eyeballing obvious PA....more of a risk than I probably should have taken. But you gotta risk it for the biscuit

EU: 1.12005 was a short term bull norm I just noticed, I'll be looking to long if we open near it. Target 1.1391 (doubt it'll get that high, but I'll take the shot)
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  • #1,029,948
  • Oct 4, 2015 12:19pm Oct 4, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Just saw this. Hard for me to track multiple currencies during the day. Most is taken on mobile. I'll try and pay attention better....problem is I have to write down to memorize fib levels to trade from mobile. That crude trade was just eyeballing obvious PA....more of a risk than I probably should have taken. But you gotta risk it for the biscuit EU: 1.12005 was a short term bull norm I just noticed, I'll be looking to long if we open near it. Target 1.1391 (doubt it'll get that high, but I'll take the shot) {image}
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  • #1,029,949
  • Oct 4, 2015 12:56pm Oct 4, 2015 12:56pm
ehhh

its Sunday. Risking it anyway
  • #1,029,950
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:13pm Oct 4, 2015 3:13pm
Anybody else use mbtrading and get a gap down from 1.1206 to 1.1191 at 4:59pm est Friday close? Don't seem right
  • #1,029,951
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:41pm Oct 4, 2015 3:41pm
Not even one projection over the weekend?
Here's one in case FED wants to go for hikes.
Daily.
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  • #1,029,952
  • Edited 4:03pm Oct 4, 2015 3:45pm | Edited 4:03pm
How are any of those trend lines valid other than the (2) (4)

and shouldnt 5 go under?
  • #1,029,953
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:50pm Oct 4, 2015 3:50pm
Fed hiking? Future a market see quoting The home march 2016 atm

I mena fed have not necessarily been logic in anyway but with such an nfp
this all full employment idea and dependency on data makes it now something at the very least happening in Dec if so
imho but you never know ....
Quoting KzX
Not even one projection over the weekend? Here's one in case FED wants to go for hikes. Daily. {image}
  • #1,029,954
  • Oct 4, 2015 4:26pm Oct 4, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting Kribstreet
Fed hiking? Future a market see quoting The home march 2016 atm I mena fed have not necessarily been logic in anyway but with such an nfp this all full employment idea and dependency on data makes it now something at the very least happening in Dec if so imho but you never know .... {quote}
How many times you saw posts like: 'I don't understand, why it's going this way if the data is that and that?'

Mr P,
What trendlines? these are not trendlines. Bullish wolfie wave sounds familiar?
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  • #1,029,955
  • Oct 4, 2015 4:45pm Oct 4, 2015 4:45pm
Buy at 1.1223
S/L: 1.1149
TP1: 1.1440
TP2: 1.1640

Sell at 1.1220
S/L: 1.1321
TP1: 1.0860
TP2: 1.0540
Visit my Drumming & Percussion Blog - DrumsCult com
  • #1,029,956
  • Edited 5:11pm Oct 4, 2015 5:00pm | Edited 5:11pm
Two scenarios at 1.12170

Buy sl 1.1189 - tp 1.12750
Sell sl 1.12750 - tp1 1.1189 / tp2 1.11620
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  • #1,029,957
  • Oct 4, 2015 7:23pm Oct 4, 2015 7:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a db using 1104 as a leg. that leg un-broken is still bullish for 1320. bears did close -1209 on the week and day, was/is bearish. the day has changed positions last week several times around 1209 with close. we still may see 1320 and the week can still close Friday below 1209 or more. 1320 is just a small chart. i try to wait for these to play out, not because i think its bullish.. but because even if wrong its cheaper to trade less and wait for the better possible trade. i could have used 1282 last week bounce (1282 bear norm), but the...
still missed 1320. still on the side. it was close, still waiting
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,029,958
  • Oct 4, 2015 10:37pm Oct 4, 2015 10:37pm
1.1250 is a quite srong resistance..
But in my view, Trend still starting to be bullish..
Hope there will be a break up soon..
GTS V8 Return This Month: na
  • #1,029,959
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:29pm Oct 4, 2015 11:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}still missed 1320. still on the side. it was close, still waiting

trying to gather your line of thinking here... since the 1320 level still has yet to be touched your awaiting that level for a move down to or under something like 1089? it seems if 1320 gets touched now surely 1333 will as well... i understand your interest in a predefined move to a level a few hundred pips away but im losing your reasoning when the level is within a bid ask spread of being touched... just sayin...
and i too still excpect 1320 prior to a bold move below 1100 just trading a combination of scalps and waiting for these larger unretraced moves to occur prior to entering shorts for a bigger move lower...
  • #1,029,960
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:18am Oct 5, 2015 12:18am
Quoting KzX
{quote} How many times you saw posts like: 'I don't understand, why it's going this way if the data is that and that?' Mr P, What trendlines? these are not trendlines. Bullish wolfie wave sounds familiar? {image}
BWW Pattern you posted twice, first "daydreaming" and "reality".... both the same outcome. Held long day before knowing what was possible, didn't have wherewithal to hold going into NFP day. In hindsight, looking at projected and previous numbers I would have bet and gambled going up...coulda, woulda, shoulda, but I most likely I would have done the same thing under the same circumstances...analyzing and doing are sometimes two very different animals for me.
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