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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,461
  • Oct 1, 2015 3:34am Oct 1, 2015 3:34am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,462
  • Oct 1, 2015 9:05am Oct 1, 2015 9:05am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,463
  • Oct 1, 2015 11:45am Oct 1, 2015 11:45am
Friday
4:30
02/10/15
AU Retail Sales
(AU Retail Sales), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Served with a delay

Friday
15:30
02/10/15
US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT!
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,464
  • Oct 1, 2015 12:25pm Oct 1, 2015 12:25pm
Hi guys.I have never traded between October and December. Anyone with an experience pip movement during red news in this seoson? Is it better than during winter? Is it like summer?
Thanks
1000 pips a week target
  • #1,465
  • Oct 1, 2015 1:05pm Oct 1, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting vvFish
Friday 4:30 02/10/15 AU Retail Sales (AU Retail Sales), Australia, AUDUSD Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release. 25% probability trades. Served with a delay Friday 15:30 02/10/15 US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT! (US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release. 50% probability trades.
Which Broker do you use to trade?
  • #1,466
  • Oct 1, 2015 8:45pm Oct 1, 2015 8:45pm
AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% -0.1%
Late entry, small profit
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  • #1,467
  • Oct 1, 2015 10:39pm Oct 1, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting Ducdaovn
{quote} Which Broker do you use to trade?
any
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,468
  • Oct 1, 2015 10:42pm Oct 1, 2015 10:42pm
Quoting toppo qqq
AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% -0.1% Late entry, small profit {image}

My friend, you are a rare visitor to the topic.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,469
  • Oct 1, 2015 10:45pm Oct 1, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting pgicheru
Hi guys.I have never traded between October and December. Anyone with an experience pip movement during red news in this seoson? Is it better than during winter? Is it like summer? Thanks
News trade does not depend on the season.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,470
  • Oct 2, 2015 6:35pm Oct 2, 2015 6:35pm
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.0% 0.2% 0.4%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 142K 201K 136K
USD Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
Failed to place manual entry 5 sec before news time (late to attend PC). This entry was with trapping pending orders EA and MM with WUKAR WB trailing EA with TP set at 200 pt. Platform froze for a few min, but EA did the job. Just FWIW.
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  • #1,471
  • Oct 2, 2015 10:39pm Oct 2, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting toppo qqq
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% USD Non-Farm Employment Change 142K 201K 136K USD Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Failed to place manual entry 5 sec before news time (late to attend PC). This entry was with trapping pending orders EA and MM with WUKAR WB trailing EA with TP set at 200 pt. Platform froze for a few min, but EA did the job. Just FWIW. {image}
Excellent.
I unfortunately was not able to participate in the auction.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,472
  • Oct 2, 2015 10:42pm Oct 2, 2015 10:42pm
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,473
  • Oct 2, 2015 10:49pm Oct 2, 2015 10:49pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Nonfarm unties the hands of the Central Bank.

In the coming days we will get a lot of comments on the statistics of the US labor market, backed by follow in the coming weeks as we get «feed back on the Non-Farm» from neighboring central banks, and the first may be the RBA.
USD
The dollar received a dose of adrenaline from the publication of Friday's labor market statistics, the weak data muffled drove expectations of interest rate at the end of 2015 (if not at the beginning of 2016).
Mainly in the week for the Americans will find comments from Fed officials, as well as search for true and real fundamental soil, which can radically differ from the inflated text of the press.

Thursday will be published minutes of advanced meeting FOMC, but they are probably of little interest, since it does not take into account the latest publication of Friday's NFP.
The dollar is looking for, and careful monitoring of moods. A key factor will be his October 27-28 - Meeting of the FOMC, which will take place with a full card at the layouts of its members.
On the probability of a rate hike in December
GBP
At the pound there is now every chance to show their teeth in this Monday, the week will start with the publication of Service PMI, which is quite capable to reflect the growth of business sentiment, as the GBP had never disappoint the markets in the phase of "probable rate hike will happen soon", which was launched thanks to Mark Carney.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting of the MPC, and we are interested in the voting structure of the interest rate: see McCafferty was attached to someone else in the group "for" improving "as the British is just hobbling Statistics inflation.
EUR
Mario Draghi said that the euro zone growth returns. In his opinion for the last 3 years it has been real progress in the stabilization of the euro zone. But the CPI Flash Estimate y / y returned to the zone of deflation (-0.1%) still leaves the game talk about the expansion of QE. Perhaps the Euro is worth waiting for the ECB meeting (22/10).
AUD
The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (for us early in the morning). Official forecasts say is the immutability of the interest rate, which should remain at 2.0%. Ho. But the probability of decline already in the meeting remain.
The unemployment rate remains high (6.2%), the risk of dipping back into recession remains, as the economy creeps below trend. Despite this, business sentiment is stable and growing, most policies RBA soul, and the rate of AUD provides more competitive advantages. The rate is already at a low level, but is it enough? Analysts had expected a further decline down to 1.5% in the first half of 2016, but now a question of the United States, the Americans will go to raise their rates, and how soon? Perhaps the best solution for the RBA will not hesitate to further easing and stimulation just to the growth in property prices is not interfered with.
Learn all very soon, Tuesday is not recommended to skip.
CAD
Again, pay attention to Friday, 9 October. Canada will present its Non-Farm, and if he has traditionally confused with the US labor market statistics, here it is absolutely free.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,474
  • Oct 2, 2015 10:51pm Oct 2, 2015 10:51pm
Monday.
11:30
05/10/15
GB The index of activity in the services sector
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,475
  • Oct 5, 2015 4:46am Oct 5, 2015 4:46am
Tuesday
6:30
06/10/15
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
38% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,476
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:43am Oct 6, 2015 3:43am
Wednesday.
11:30
07/10/15
GB Industrial Production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
24% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,477
  • Oct 6, 2015 3:55am Oct 6, 2015 3:55am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at 2%

According to the results of the meeting on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 2%. It seems that the main reason was ...
Monetary policy should be adequate to the level of low inflation.
The Council decided to carefully examine the next data of economic growth and prospects for the verdict, the adequacy of policy in the future.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace.
Trading conditions in Australia deteriorated.
Administrative regulation helps to contain the risk of just the price of the real estate market.
Inflation remains within the normal range, even at low interest rate of the Central Bank.
As noted earlier, it seems that the RBA is seriously concerned about the state of real estate prices that have been warmed up due to the low interest rate. We also note the importance of the report on the state of the Australian trade balance.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,478
  • Oct 6, 2015 8:01am Oct 6, 2015 8:01am
I am also interested to find out more about news trading specifically the type of news that will bring high impact because some times those listed on FF calendar proven to not bring big impact to the market. I'm not a news trader but I take news schedule and incorporate it in a different way in my trading.
Different/opposing ideas will make us learn and understand many things.
  • #1,479
  • Oct 7, 2015 1:09am Oct 7, 2015 1:09am
At 10:30 am EDT the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.Check expected number a couple of minutes before the publication

*************************************************************
U.S. Crude-Oil Stocks Expected to Have Risen in Latest Reporting Week
Published: Oct 06, 2015
By Timothy Puko

U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to show an increase, in data due to be published on Wednesday by the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from seven analysts surveyed showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have increased by 2.5 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Oct. 2.

All seven analysts expected stockpiles to have risen. Forecasts ranged from an increase of 2 million barrels to one of 4.8 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles were expected to fall by 100,000 barrels, according to analysts. Three analysts expected a decline, three expected a rise and one expected no change. Estimates ranged from a rise of 1.4 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, were expected to fall by 600,000 barrels. Four analysts expected a rise and three saw a decline. Forecasts ranged from a drop of 2.6 million barrels to a gain of 1 million barrels.

Refinery use was seen falling 0.8 percentage point to 89% of capacity, based on EIA data. Five analysts expected a decline, one expected no change and one didn't report expectations. Forecasts ranged from no change to a drop of 1.5 points.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late on Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed a decrease of 1.2 million barrels in crude-oil supplies, according to a source. The group said that gasoline supplies rose by 4.7 million barrels and that U.S. distillate stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week, according to a source.

Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Confluence Investment Management 2 -1 -2 -1.5
Energy Management Institute 2 1 1 -0.5
Excel Futures 2.714 1.376 0.736 -0.7
IAF Advisors 2 0 0.5 n/a
Price Futures Group 2 0.5 -2 0
Ritterbusch and Associates 4.8 -2 -2.6 -1.5
Schneider Electric 2 0.5 0.5 -0.5
AVERAGE 2.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8

High 4.8 1.376 1 0
Low 2 -2 -2.6 -1.5

***********************************************************

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,480
  • Oct 7, 2015 11:56am Oct 7, 2015 11:56am
Thursday
14:00
08/10/15
3 Kommentarii4 new comments
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

The Bank of England, the next challenger "to surprise". If we now look at Canada, New Zealand and Australia, as central banks are most likely to reduce the interest rate, the Bank of England - the first favorite on its rise. But the surprise is not the case.
UK really hard growing, and markets are absolutely sure that the first half of 2016 we expect an increase in interest rates. The rhetoric of Mark Carney as the control knob, hawk, we all remember the phrase "interest rate hike will happen more quickly than anticipated." But the whole point is: how long will the Bank of England on the way in the global "stop", and pause by the Fed? The slightest hint of the word "translation" of monetary policy in a neutral channel, we expect disappointment - surprise.
Inflation remains at zero, while remaining a major stumbling block to raise rates. Rumor has it that the consumer price index, and all can go down into the negative, deflationary zone.
The market will adjust rates gradually, gently shifting the expected timing of interest rate increase, but is also present, and the risk that there is a trigger that will change quite dramatically expectations. Now it is a major risk for the pound. And while we have seen, leveling the imbalance between expectations of interest rates in England and the United States after Friday's Farm.
No, although fresh report on industrial production and showed an increase of it, but the interest rate right now does not expect. First of all we are interested in the structure of voting on it. Recall that is the only voting "for" an increase in the Bank of England's MPC remains McCafferty, and once to join him at least 1 more member of the committee, the pound strengthened at this time.
Details of trading on the voting structure can be found in the section Triggers.
PS Oh, and do not forget that volatility can occur on text-based protocol, and most likely, will be: forward comments regarding the Bank's assessment of global prospects, are not pleased in general.



Thursday
17:30
08/10/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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