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AUD/USD

Quoting ell3
{quote} It still makes sense in the long run to short the aud as it rallies. No one knows for sure how far the rally will run, but fundamentals favour the shorts in the long term. I have positions both directions and im still more nervous about the longs than the shorts...more inclined to want to close off the longs with tight profit margins.
Hey elle, just do what you think suits you best. Every trader is different and has their own style of trade depending on their personality. No one should dictate the way you trade for sure. Make losses, that's fine, treat it as tuition fee payable to the market and a good learning lesson.

Make profits, withdraw it and enjoy your fruits of labour

Cheers!
Quoting ell3
{quote} It still makes sense in the long run to short the aud as it rallies. No one knows for sure how far the rally will run, but fundamentals favour the shorts in the long term. I have positions both directions and im still more nervous about the longs than the shorts...more inclined to want to close off the longs with tight profit margins.
Agreed. Looking at the weekly there have been many "double bottoms". If this is a reversal than why have the major banks in Australia forecasts as a lower AUD by years end? Also they have been fairly accurate in their predictions going by this link.

https://www.commbank.com.au/content/...-Forecasts.pdf
Quoting jabbo
{quote} Agreed. Looking at the weekly there have been many "double bottoms". If this is a reversal than why have the major banks in Australia forecasts as a lower AUD by years end? Also they have been fairly accurate in their predictions going by this link. https://www.commbank.com.au/content/...-Forecasts.pdf
Apologies Jabbo, but i have never put a single tinge of trust into bankers before. They are bankers for a reason. If they had been traders, do you think they will still be working as bankers or analyst?

Of course, just like football, the ball is round. Both teams have an equal opportunity to score. It's a matter of probability.

I mean, if you really felt that being short is the right direction, go for it. Don't let anyone dictate your trading decisions because we have only got ourselves to answer to
hope that AUD has found its resistance, so went long GBP/AUD instead of shorting AUD/USD
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} never put a single tinge of trust into bankers
I wholeheartedly agree with this statement here. However you must admit that if you were following their predictions for the last few years, you would possibly be better off?

Also they are governed by Australian Federal law to not give false, misleading or deceptive conduct in their financial services. Now you can take that at face value. Haha.
Quoting jabbo
{quote} I wholeheartedly agree with this statement here. However you must admit that if you were following their predictions for the last few years, you would possibly be better off? Also they are governed by Australian Federal law to not give false, misleading or deceptive conduct in their financial services. Now you can take that at face value. Haha.
Yes, they are not supposed to give wrong info. True that. Hence, their information is available to public. Public seek their opinion and should be making big money from their advice. This world will not have poor people and people living in poverty. Everyone can just listen to these banks and put all their cash, assets into their recommendations and everyone can just sit back and wait to cash out on their profits if what you mentioned above is true.

I'm not saying, don't listen to them entirely, i agree lots of bs. TBH, i was never profitable when i first started and listened to them thinking they are the 'professionals'. Take a step back and think, if they are professionals, why will they bother to sit behind a desk all day and report numbers to news media and their superior?

Not against you my friend, just speaking my mind.

Cheers!
hahaha, relax man! we're all here to trash views around and pick up a suggestion or two. no one's dictating to anyone what to do. at the end of the day trading is about doing your own analysis and making your own informed decisions. and we share what we think occasionally
Quoting ell3
hahaha, relax man! we're all here to trash views around and pick up a suggestion or two. no one's dictating to anyone what to do. at the end of the day trading is about doing your own analysis and making your own informed decisions. and we share what we think occasionally
yeah that's right !
Nothing to relax about as nothing is heated here or being dictated. Just an exchange of ideas/opinions etc.

If everyone followed their recommendations then everyone would be rich if they were following the predictions in the link I posted earlier. However this is not the case and I would ask the question as to why people don't follow their analysis? More than likely it is a deep mistrust of banks. Myself included., but that doesn't stop me from following their advice.

Perhaps what we are seeing here is a short term correction with the AUD before continuing the long term trend. Perhaps SkyrEk is correct and this is possibly the beginning of the bottom for the AUD.

Cheers.
Quoting TroJan
{quote} MP means?
Market Profile...
Quoting jabbo
Nothing to relax about as nothing is heated here or being dictated. Just an exchange of ideas/opinions etc. If everyone followed their recommendations then everyone would be rich if they were following the predictions in the link I posted earlier. However this is not the case and I would ask the question as to why people don't follow their analysis? More than likely it is a deep mistrust of banks. Myself included., but that doesn't stop me from following their advice. Perhaps what we are seeing here is a short term correction with the AUD before...
Anything is possible man. Bottom or not, as long we profit, any other matters doesn't matter.

Its all about the PIPs, which i am sure everyone here will agree. Haha, up- trend, down- trend, consolidation, as long we reap the pips man!
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Anything is possible man. Bottom or not, as long we profit, any other matters doesn't matter. Its all about the PIPs, which i am sure everyone here will agree. Haha, up- trend, down- trend, consolidation, as long we reap the pips man!

I agree.....long/short still green and $$$ A good trader knows when to pull out and change direction.

Just saying. Yes it might fall and drop like a motherfucker but unless you have a big balance and really want to hold it for that long then go ahead....

Me I rather just trade price action and take quick pips and I have no patience for long term trades....sure I lose money but I eventually make it back and im comfortable in taking losses....its all part of the game.....

Took a bit of a hit when this fucker fell from 0.72....now made my money back + extra.....good times....

Looking to long EUR/AUD for a quick scalp....nice 50-100 pip move for a long there and its on a nice support.....
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Anything is possible man. Bottom or not, as long we profit, any other matters doesn't matter. Its all about the PIPs, which i am sure everyone here will agree. Haha, up- trend, down- trend, consolidation, as long we reap the pips man!
Exactly. As long as there is some profit in the trade, and the RR is decent, it is worth it.

I wasn't necessarily saying this is the "bottom" we saw in 2008 at 60cents.
I'm not saying this is the point where we can LONG and hold it for 5 years and profit 4000 pips.
Although it very well could be (doji candle for month of September) but I don't trade that way...

Add to your winners and enter near the edges, keep it simple!
Attached Image
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
Hedge/scalp short.

90 pip move needs a breather.
Attached Image
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
I think it will keep climbing towards 0.7220 again.
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Hedge/scalp short. 90 pip move needs a breather. {image}
Yep, i went short but with EURAUD instead

Just nabbed 60 pips of that sucker for a long....and its at a bottom support....but be careful cuz it moves hard fast....can make u or break u LOL
Quoting jabbo
{quote} Agreed. Looking at the weekly there have been many "double bottoms". If this is a reversal than why have the major banks in Australia forecasts as a lower AUD by years end? Also they have been fairly accurate in their predictions going by this link. https://www.commbank.com.au/content/...-Forecasts.pdf
In my opinion that link alone is not sufficient to judge the accuracy of their predictions. Only the blue bits are forecasts, the black bits are actuals or probably the average for the month in question (or quarter). To judge their accuracy you'd have to have a look at an old page. Do you have one saved from say a year ago? I quickly tried to grab one from cached pages but was unsuccessful.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Quoting dab
{quote} In my opinion that link alone is not sufficient to judge the accuracy of their predictions. Only the blue bits are forecasts, the black bits are actuals or probably the average for the month in question (or quarter). To judge their accuracy you'd have to have a look at an old page. Do you have one saved from say a year ago? I quickly tried to grab one from cached pages but was unsuccessful.
A link to all of their forecasts.

https://www.commbank.com.au/corporat...financial.html
Quoting jabbo
{quote} A link to all of their forecasts. https://www.commbank.com.au/corporat...financial.html
Thanks - case in point, I went back a year and clicked on forecast for 5/9/14 and at that stage they were forecasting 94c for December 2014 vs the actual of 81 to 85. For September 2015 they were forecasting 90c vs current levels.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
still hold long? doesn't seem to break the resistant...
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