A jump to the beginning - chaos and market forces

Natural Laws vs Behavioral Laws

1. Everything is connected and interconnected (A deeper understanding is required to be understand this). To think that you have no connection between an ant on the other side of the planet (that you have never seen nor touched) is simple ignorance. One's own connection to the planet, to humanity, to the universe, no matter how great or small, all the way to the unseen.

2. Behavioral Laws are by-products of Natural Laws (and not the other way around). So if you want to fix or solve a problem or find a solution, you should be tackling with the root source and not the middle-man.

3. Behavioral Laws is good at tackling the middle-man instead of the source. Example, someone has a fever, behavioral law would give paracetamol to lower the fever. Instead of curing what caused the fever (the source), it is focused on addressing the wrong issue. Our society through behavioral laws would prefer to remove the blinking red lights, instead of finding the reason why the Red lights are blinking. You have dandruff, wash it with some topical shampoo, instead of addressing what's causing the dandruff. You don't like the flabs on your love handles, wear some spandex, instead of addressing the weight issue. Weight problems, here take some pills, instead of exercising and proper diet. The floor is dirty, just sweep it under the sofa, instead of not wearing dirty shoes in the house. Cut the pollution, subsidize polluting car companies, instead of subsidizing every household with solar panels. I did it on my own, F*** you, no man is an island alone. It's not working, just buy another one, instead of replacing a simple fuse. etc... etc... etc...

And guess what when it comes to trading?.... "let's find out people's behavior", instead of what is causing the behavior. That's why I couldn't care less of anyone's opinion about the market. I couldn't care less of market sentiment. I couldn't care less if the majority are buyers, because I know for a fact, that it only takes 1 domino to snowball and tumble the majority. I prefer to skip through the middle man and get to the root source of the problem.

I have studied behavior and psychology greatly. And at the end of the road, it was actually the behavioral science that told me that the answers are not through behaviors because behaviors are by-products. Dandruffs are by-products of an unbalance immune system. Flabs are by-products of over consumption of food. Weight issue is by-products of your chemical-receptors in the brain. Pollution is by-product of profits and greed. You, you are a by-product of the universe, despite of whatever you think.

I still remember one of my teacher that asked me what I see in the drawing.

I said, "I see an old lady."
Years have passed and my teacher asked me the same question.
I replied, "I see an old lady and a young lady."
More years have passed and my teacher asked me again the same question.
I replied, "I see lines."

When you study psychology you will realize and become aware of all the biases we have.
Once you notice this, you can work on removing these biases and see the world in a different light.

You can't tackle Natural Laws without first conquering Behavioral Laws. It is like a missing gap in knowledge and it will only set you back. Like trying to write a book and your grammar is all over the place.

So this thread is more of like an end game approach. Some will try the end game approach without solid foundations and they too will fail at it.
That's why when people don't understand what I'm gibbering about and have lots of question, I tend to tune out because we are not on the same page.


Peace,
CrucialPoint

P.S. Guys, Please read my bio I will only post what I want to share and nothing more.
I'm not here to mentor or train people... If you can't keep up, I not here to help to.
I post ideas.... Nothing more, nothing less... take it or leave it.

Nice CP..... in that we see a biased 2D abstraction and not the reality. The illusion of reality is a game played by the artist and one that is blindly practiced by the 'personae' as opposed to the organism. :-)

Here is what I think...(apologies for any scientific inaccuracies)

Gann was wrong because he was trying to predict a point in time where price should move to. Price moves regardless of time. Time is something that appears to us to move linearly (4th dimension) but I think what science is showing is that past, present and future all exist in the now but in different space/dimensions/worlds. We find it hard to visualise because we are in a 3/4dimensional world. This is why we can say that price is moving up and down in the same space and the same time. Remember this...

However the chart in front of us is the reality we see. We do not see the other dimensions. What would be the point of charting all other dimensions anyway? So we have to work with what plays out on our chart. So what can we do? Well as in life there are so many variables that can affect price direction. We cannot predict these we can only react to them. As has been said by other posters we can say what probable outcomes given certain information. We have some control over how they affect us. We can be in or out of the market. We can decide when or where to enter/exit. When we are in a trade we can reduce the impact of any strong moves against our position.

A reference point is needed as helps us to see how price has moved and the momentum behind it. By it's very nature a reference point will need to lag behind price. CP mentioned an exercise of putting string across our monitors is a 3d representation of what Gann did in 2d. I guess it is 3d because the string has depth. In scrolling the chart I believe all we are doing is just reversing what would normally be done by Gannalysts. Moving the chart to line up with the reference points instead of redrawing the reference points on the chart each time. Does this help us?

CP says we can choose any reference point but different reference points have different sensitivities. Now imagine if we chose a reference point that never changed from the day we started trading. Would that be any good to us? Would it be sensitive enough? A candle open is a reference point that we can use as it resets/recalibrates on our chosen time frame. We can also learn the wave of probability or most likely movement of price for the candle period from history/stats which we can use to trade forward. Just like in life how choices we make or certain laws limit the probable outcome. As has been said by other posters we can say what probable outcomes given certain information. You can't imagine a drug abuser having a high life expectancy. This is his deviation from a more normal path. Time used in this case is giving us a boundary so that we can conclude probabilities. For example do we expect a GU 1hr candle to move 500 pips in either direction from open in an hour? Not impossible but unlikely. So there are some things we can rule out in probable price movement from a point. Personally I think it would be better to have a reference point that is more dynamic than this, a rolling reference point.

In summary I think CP is saying is that for the most part price is unpredictable (chaotic) and we should not try to predict it. Just like in life we can't predict exactly what path we are going to take as other people and things have an impact on it. We have a certain element of control by the decisions we make. Focus more on price movement and momentum which we can determine by measuring from a reference point. This is another useful thing we can take from the past on our charts. The trend of the moment is our best chance of success and capturing the randomness. I believe to be most effective the reference point needs to be dynamic and recalibrate based on price movement (not time).

Regards

Neio

Time: Equation in Question


If no-one enter/exit the market in 1 sec, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 1 min, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 15 min, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 30 min, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 1hr, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 4hr, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 6hr, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 12hr, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 1day, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 1 week, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 1 month, will the market move?... No.
If no-one enter/exit the market in 1 year, will the market move?... No.


OK...
Is is fair to assume and conclude that Time has no bearing on market movement?
Time = 0

Yet if we look at history (through cognitive bias) we assume/presume that time plays a role in market movement.
Like the old saying, "Improvement is always the results of change. But change is never always an improvement."

When you look at it, it appears time played a role in market movement, but when you critically analyze it, time has no bearing on price movement.
Nice one Brain!!! haha it was very funny... losing all those sleepless nights




Peace,
CrucialPoint

There are a lot of good informations posted here, guys take what you think its useful for you and don't criticize, and if you post your ideas then try also to prove them.
"I believe that time is an important factor, you will not see the truth since you will leave your beliefs".
"Statistics help us to find patterns, you should learn statistics"
"Natural laws and behavioural laws are two different things"
No, it doesn't work this way at least for me.
For every assumption there should be an explanation.

I write with right hand and other people tell me "you are doing it wrong".
This is an assumption but the explanation? Do I write wrong because you have been brainwashed and think to write right?
Assumption >> explanation.
Your point of view without a correlated explanation is like building a car without the knowledge to drive it, it means nothing, it means that you don't know what you are doing.

Alex

ahaaaaaaa....but whose time? I must admit, I like your questionning style CP. :-)

An Interpretation as I currently see it.......

Time is simply that which measures seperation in terms of a standard periodicity and is only relevent as a coordinate measure taken from a particular reference frame.

The time you are applying in your example is 'external' time which is an arbitrary benchmark adopted by us humans on this dinky little planet so we can share consensus on what is regarded as simultaneous events. The time being applied here is Newtonian time where a fictitious external grid is applied as our method of attempting to measure 'change' in a standard way in our narrow domain. Newtonian time adopts a god eye perspective where we are looking from outside in. An illusory grid is overlaid over the system with defined intervals and the temporal intervals represent time.

This is different to a relativists view of time where all system events are laid out in bold in a dynamic arena and standard time is merely an arbitrary illusion created from a particular perspective taken within this system. One persons time is another persons space etc etc etc dependent on who is doing the looking. In this view time is simply a convenient method of looking at this system from inside out as opposed to outside in and only relevant from a particular reference frame.

The reality appears to be that it is the relationship between 'events' that matter and not the arbitrary classifications we apply to these interactions such as 'when' and 'where' it happened. Once again we are back at the important fact about systems, that is the inter-retionships and connections that matter and not the 'things' within it.

In this market it is the participants that cause price movement by the way they interact with the market. Price movement represents the relationships between these interactions, but if we apply arbitary classifications to their description such as 'time' then don't be surprised if we all adopt different interpretations on the when's and the where's. Time is merely a tool that from a particular viewpoint only chooses the 'when' this event occurred. Time in itself is meaningless and once again is an abstraction we apply to make sense of a system but it can blind us as we start to attach an actual existence to this abstraction. I suppose it is handy however in that it allows us to keep our day jobs.

In a system with no change, there is no time. Snapfreeze the system and time simply stops. A simple photograph is locked in time, a motion picture allows time to flow...but it is not about the time at all, it is about the 'change of state' of a system.

The collective effect of interactions at specific locales with the system defines the particular state and that should be the name of the game, and this like any other process requires a dualistic interpretation. An interaction is a two way street as it involves the system itself (behaviour eliciited by 'other participants' and the behaviour of the participant who is interacting with the system).

The way we personally interact with that external collective viewpoint actually matters despite us believing that our actions are insignificant. The inter-relationships in this system mean we need to pluck it carefully without disturbing the balance.....which means that if we want to trade what we see, then pluck it (trade it) in harmony.

What is harmony, in the context of the market? It is the way the system flows. What isn't an illusion are the constraints that appear from our personal viewpoints which define form (patterns) as these are indications of the market 'laws' associated with collective behaviour. The constraints represent themselves as price barriers or limits within which collective behaviour is defined. Price is the artifact or the whirlpools in a stream which is a representative symptom of collective behaviour but the 'constraints' are the root 'causes' of the whirlpools, namely that which defines how the river flows.

A serious comment this time: It appears that there is some misunderstanding of W. D. Gann's life and debated success.
One thing: Gann has predicted the great economic crisis almost a year before it happened in a spectacular bull market of the 1920s.
I would not put his name and the word 'wrong' in the same sentence. I regularly use reversal patterns like double top/bottom. Guess who was teaching this in his courses a century ago?
As for how wealthy he was at the time of death, you need to read his later work and understand that he was a highly religious man. I would not be surprised if he donated most of what he earned through trading and courses. I just think it is plausible he took literally that "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich person to enter the Kingdom of God!" quote as he did many other passages in the Bible.
Anyways, just my two eurocents.
Cheers,
k

Time and Price when considered at reoccurring intervals or levels are totally irrelevant.
They have no predictive value whatsoever.
Gann, Elliot and all the others all terribly mistaken and made some money by teaching not trading.

All and all another obvious case of:

==> Pareidolia The imagined perception of a pattern or meaning where it does not actually exist.

Actually, there are records of Gann's spectacular trading results in Wyckoff's newspapers, which you'd know about had you invested some effort into checking your claims.
Cheers,
k

I am sure he had to show something positive to gain some sort of credibility. I find it interesting that in the 1920's or today more money can be made from teaching than trading...
The comforting aspect of Gann's methodology is that there is always some support / resistance line or some magic time / price value on the chart that you can hope will save you from a bad position (:

Wyckoff on the other hand.. is more solid stuff.

Copernicus "......In a system with no change, there is no time. Snapfreeze the system and time simply stops. A simple photograph is locked in time, a motion picture allows time to flow...but it is not about the time at all, it is about the 'change of state' of a system.........."

This is the point: everytime people speak about time fall in the wrong assumption that time is linear: it is so radicated in our mind that is extremely difficult to think at time as a non linear element.
Time itself does not affect anything because time itself does not exist.
Therefore it is a nonsense speaking of time and price because the premise is false: it is not time but space-motion-time as a wholeness with price.

Also is not correct to say that past and future coexist in the now all together; past and future they simply do not exist: the past is just a memory of what has already happened and ended, so past is something that has gone, it does not exist anymore, therefore it has no influence on the present, but it affects us psychologically because we have the memory of it; future is a pure illusion, it does not exist until it comes but when it comes it is no more future, it is the present.
So the only existing moment is the now and in a blink of an eye what was the now becomes the past: our life is a sum total of many present moment that forms one after another: we can only exist in the now and the now is the only moment on which we can act and change because we can live in the now only.

The scientists that made the experiment of the balls in a jar, which I described in a previous post, concluded that was the proof that human behaviour is governed by the same natural laws, matter and spirit are not segregated, they relate with one another, everything, without exceptions, is governed by the same natural laws and follows the same scheme, so price does too; as a result of human behaviour, it follows that same scheme
.....BTW: I've read the story of Jessie Livermore, the mith of all traders in the world, .........he affirmed, in an interview about his astonishing results, that price follows a scheme.....he saw it in a moment in time where there were no computers, no fancy indicators, only the price tape.......some food for thoughts.
Call it the Code or the Divine Matrix or the Intelligent Energy or God, it doesn't matter; it does exist: it is in the nature of things, it is in front of us, we can see it everywhere, we can observe it.....what kind of a further proof do you need?! Is there someone able to affirm that laws of motion did not exist before Newton??!!
Everything we need is already present, we just need to see it; all human discoveries came from observation of what is already in nature, Newton discovered the laws of motion throughout observation and so did and still do all the scientists....observation is the only proof you need.
Most of the times we do not see the evidence because we are looking at it from the wrong perspective; in the moment in time we change our point of view it appears to us .

Copernicus: ".........The collective effect of interactions at specific locales with the system should be the name of the game, and this like any other process requires a dualistic interpretation. An interaction is a two way street as it involves the system itself (behaviour eliciited by 'other participants' and the behaviour of the participant who is interacting with the system).
The way we personally interact with that external collective viewpoint actually matters despite us believing that our actions are insignificant. The inter-relationships in this system mean we need to pluck it carefully without disturbing the balance.....which means that if we want to trade what we see, then pluck it (trade it) in harmony.
What is harmony, in the context of the market? It is the way the system flows. What isn't an illusion are the constraints that appear from our personal viewpoints which define form (patterns) as these are indications of the market 'laws' associated with collective behaviour. The constraints represent themselves as price barriers or limits within which collective behaviour is defined. Price is the artifact or the whirlpools in a stream which is a representative symptom of collective behaviour but the 'constraints' are the root 'causes' of the whirlpools, namely that which defines how the river flows."
You couldn't have made a synthesis better than that about market and our interaction with it!!
C. I think you are much more deep inside the rabbit hole than you realize.

With all due respect, Mingary, "something positive" is a serious understatement to a 1000% in a month.
As I've said before, having read much of Gann's work, including his two semi/fully religious works, I doubt that "making more money" was the primary motivator for his actions after 1910s. He claimed to have discovered his method in the late 1900s. The Ticker article by Wyckoff is from 1909.

k

Ok then.. who, today, is making 1000% per month with the Gann stuff ? (:

Over the years countless many have tried to trade the "Gann way" and none have been successful.
One thing is sure, it has everything to make up some great teaching material for a cult following...
Guru,
Mystery,
Mystical,
Pseudo Science
... etc..

Cheers S. If this is a rabbit hole then I am enjoying it. Be back soon.... so we can get deeper into the good stuff. :-)

The point is that often heard claims that Gann was a loser in the market, and that he had to resort to teaching are demonstratably false, and that the fact that he did not have an extraordinary wealth at the time of his death is not really a strong evidence to the contrary.

I do not know about the real Gann traders.

My own trading borrows mostly from the similarity thread, CaptainJack's forum on stevehopwoodforex.com, Wyckoff and Eliott, less from Gann (and only things I learned before finding out they originated from him). My personal record is ~700% per month, but this is unfortunately very far from consistent, and it relied on a recognition of a large tf pattern in oil giving a smooth trend that lasted several days, which does not occur often. Regardless of this being a one off event, it went to show me that these kinds of gains are in principle possible.

Cheers,
k

I believe it's possible too. The challenge is to be in the move when it happens and still have lots of dry powder left ..

Here is the video of averaging.i first came across this on one of crucialpoints old threads.thought it would be worthy of posting for those that have not seen it

You sure do speak in absolutes. How much of Gann's concepts have you tried? And I don't mean on the surface, but delved into? It's not like Gann spelled things out step by step. Do you know how to use the Square of 9 chart? How about the angles? Or grids? Ever dabbled in the astro? Know how to square price? time? A range? Done enough research to gather statistics to show that the methods aren't sound?

I don't know of too many that have. And far less that have done so to an extent to know what they were doing. Yet it sure seems like there are plenty out there willing to discount something they know little about.

It's nonsense like every wannabe intelligent post in this thread.
Like a NFP request of 10000 person's what they expect. And....... this theory fall badly !
Try it !