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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #12,381
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:49pm Sep 25, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting deltaone
long @16319,1 sl -20 tp +30
sl = be now.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,382
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:50pm Sep 25, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sl = be now.
sl hit. +-0
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,383
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:51pm Sep 25, 2015 2:51pm
short @16303,3 sl -20 tp +60
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,384
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:56pm Sep 25, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting deltaone
short @16303,3 sl -20 tp +60
sl hit. -20
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,385
  • Sep 25, 2015 3:23pm Sep 25, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sl hit. -20
Is your SL meabe to tight ? I also use 20 pips and stopped out a lot !
  • #12,386
  • Sep 25, 2015 3:48pm Sep 25, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting Blanco257
{quote} Is your SL meabe to tight ? I also use 20 pips and stopped out a lot !
possible - but not likely as long as i´m on a weekly profit. as long as i have an equal distribution (1/3 sl hit; 1/3 be hit; 1/3 tp hit in the long run) i am in profit with my setup. my goal is to reach 100 points a week. although this week was mediocre, it was green. last thursday alone gave me a profit of 300 points, so on average it´s still ok. but i could have done better as i stopped trading earlier today, that´s obvious.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,387
  • Sep 25, 2015 4:36pm Sep 25, 2015 4:36pm
... and then we have our very special hindsight-gurus like local micro: after aiming at parity in order to buy an expensive car , now holding longs without end on eurusd "1,1240 and i´m not letting her go... will continue running longs for the time being (24.9.15) - PSEUDO
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,388
  • Sep 25, 2015 7:03pm Sep 25, 2015 7:03pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} same to you. good luck - although i think even if there will be "new" combatants in syria, this might "help" markets sl hit, +-0.
  • #12,389
  • Sep 25, 2015 7:11pm Sep 25, 2015 7:11pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} possible - but not likely as long as im on a weekly profit. as long as i have an equal distribution (1/3 sl hit; 1/3 be hit; 1/3 tp hit in the long run) i am in profit with my setup. my goal is to reach 100 points a week. although this week was mediocre, it was green. last thursday alone gave me a profit of 300 points, so on average its still ok. but i could have done better as i stopped trading earlier today, thats obvious.
#12'387


My sentiments exactly. Every trader has to work out which fits best for him.
To avoid hasty judgement, you have learned to tolerate ambiguity. This is a difficult task and that you cannot influence actively.
(The amygdala plays a crucial role).
FXcube
  • #12,390
  • Sep 25, 2015 7:14pm Sep 25, 2015 7:14pm
Only on very few areas can we count on clear probabilities: casinos, coin tosses and probability textbooks.
Often we are left with troublesome ambiguity. Learn to take it in stride.:nerd:
FXcube
  • #12,391
  • Sep 25, 2015 11:55pm Sep 25, 2015 11:55pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Pullback to around 9588 and then another rise to 9840. Let's see.
Looks like the Germany30Cash quote closed at 9588 on Friday Evening/Saturday morning, right on 20sma support on 4H... Now let's see if it holds and it can move towards 50% Fib of 9840:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post8508493
  • #12,392
  • Sep 26, 2015 1:43am Sep 26, 2015 1:43am
Approx. 54% of the German stocks are in the hands of Dollar investors.
Did they sell strongly during last week ?

Sixeer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX in Dollar 25.9.15.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #12,393
  • Sep 26, 2015 2:42am Sep 26, 2015 2:42am
@sixer the selloff is not only in the DAX. I always look at the DOW and SPX to see where the stocks are trading relative to the 50ema.

The first chart shows the % of SPX stocks which trade above their 50ema and this kind of selloff is the biggest in 3 years (as far back as I could extend the chart).

I would always look for buy signals when it hits 30% (my shot at oversold), but this time the selloff is amazing and don't look like it's going to stop.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The DOW looks even worse with ALL stocks trading below their 50ema, which was the case in the 08 explosion.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unbenannt.png Size: 38 KB


This equity selloff is not over and we can bet on the DAX as the auto scandal deepens...
Best regards, Zef
  • #12,394
  • Sep 26, 2015 12:43pm Sep 26, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting ZeF
This equity selloff is not over and we can bet on the DAX as the auto scandal deepens...
I agree with you Z. If VW, as big as they are, are manipulating emissions don't you think other manufacturers like BWM and Mercedes are doing it in their own ways too?This is serious added incentive for the markets to tank.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #12,395
  • Sep 26, 2015 4:03pm Sep 26, 2015 4:03pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I agree with you Z. If VW, as big as they are, are manipulating emissions don't you think other manufacturers like BWM and Mercedes are doing it in their own ways too?This is serious added incentive for the markets to tank.
one of VW biggest shareholders is the federal state niedersachsen (20%). its taxes and dividends are imporatnt for the city wolfsburg and federal state niedersachsen. there are strong relationsships between politicians there and the bundesregierung. i dont think this chapter will be closed without political guidance, and therefor the outcome will not be that bad as actual capitalisation values this. VW is much to cheap, and also if other german automakers will be effected: do you really think this will harm the sales of them in the long run? its still "made in germany" what you get when you pay, and this means sales will decrease only a little bit i guess. in comparison: look at the doomed us auto industry (gm got bankrupt for "hard facts" (death casualties because that cars where not safe for the costumers), chrysler was selled to fiat etc... ok, ford - last man standing. but auto manufactures are critical for germany, don´t think politicians here will let this core industry with so many voters/employees go down. this is not america, this is germany.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,396
  • Sep 26, 2015 8:21pm Sep 26, 2015 8:21pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} one of VW biggest shareholders is the federal state niedersachsen (20%). its taxes and dividends are imporatnt for the city wolfsburg and federal state niedersachsen. there are strong relationsships between politicians there and the bundesregierung. i dont think this chapter will be closed without political guidance, and therefor the outcome will not be that bad as actual capitalisation values this. VW is much to cheap, and also if other german automakers will be effected: do you really think this will harm the sales of them in the long...

Hi Deltaone Thanks for yur reply. Te auto sector in Germany is clearly bigger than the sector in the US. Where I was going with my reply was that if VW was doing what it did it is likely that other german manufacturers are doing it too. Sales of German vehicles will not be affected much in the long run because of this. I am still aspiring for a X6. Tecnology is converging and I believe there is really nothing that Mercedes has on BMW or VW. So my thoughts are if one is doing it there must be another one doing it as well. What this has done is make german auto makers vulnerable to the US government. If they cant get the better of you by designing better cars they will do so by imposing fines
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #12,397
  • Sep 27, 2015 12:52am Sep 27, 2015 12:52am
@Olu @D1 I am thinking of a dax crash possibly through the prism of cascading subcontractors failures and further revelations about this software issue. Other diesels from Europe have comparable emissions to VW's BlueTec scam. Have the other manufacturers actually done the impossible or did they rig the tests too ? Time will tell and if things are legit, there should be a healthy rally. If things are not legit, I do hope the German government will let free market economics play out.

Talking about the actual stock of VW, if big US funds will build large shorts, no amount of PR or money printing will heal this drama...
Best regards, Zef
  • #12,398
  • Sep 27, 2015 3:20am Sep 27, 2015 3:20am
Hey all.

Some time ago I posted a chart of the term structure of German interest rates so here is the follow up.

Date range is from Jan 2014 to today. It includes the Bund sell off in April and the August 24th bloodbath.

What I'm looking for in this type of analysis is how the short end is reacting to risk off. The short end is highly liquid, less volatile and is historically a popular place to park cash in a risk off event. As German sovereign bonds are considered one of the safest it should give a good indication of just how much fear there is, however considering ECB's intervention, it is really difficult to work out whether the move in yields are front running more stimulus (which is off the table for now) or is actually a dash for safety.

View1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 168 KB


View 2:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 82 KB


As a comparison, here is the Australian Term structure of interest rates that much more clearly shows how the short end of the curve is bought when SHTF (Aug 24th)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Term structure 2015 sep.png Size: 87 KB


Conclusion: ECB is not making it very easy for us mere plebs to work out what's happening. Bond markets in other nations (where there are no central bank shenanigans) however paint a pretty clear picture that cash right now likes short duration fixed income securities.

Have a great weekend all!
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #12,399
  • Sep 27, 2015 4:43am Sep 27, 2015 4:43am
Quoting Liand
{quote} Hello Fisher755 Can you share your indicators and your template I like your chart Thanks in advance . Liand
Sorry, I somehow missed your post.

The best way to start using PVSRA template is to get to it from my posts history.
I have to point out, that you would have to read much to become familiar with the template and the indys, without the knowledge it is useless..

Traderathome is working on some improvements that come with the latest PVSRA developments, and will probably post the new ZIP file sometime until the end of this year. I too am a part of the testing, so my template can be a bit different from the exsisting ZIP file.
PVSRA
  • #12,400
  • Sep 27, 2015 5:16am Sep 27, 2015 5:16am
There will be Holidays I believe in Hong Kong,China and Taiwan on Monday for their Autumn MoonCake Festival Holiday. Had I hung on to my short positions I would have made almost $8K instead of losing almost $8K on Friday. That selloff on the DOW brought the DAX down a good 100 points in after hours trading. Next time I will decrease my position amount to be able to hang on a little longer and average down to allow for an exit or await the roller coaster look to get back down to starting position.
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