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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #12,221
  • Sep 24, 2015 11:38am Sep 24, 2015 11:38am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} thanks. dax: xetra only, mainly from 09:00 - 11:00 cet + news release/ecb pc dow: only when cash market is open, mainly between 16:30 - 18:30 cet and from 20:00 - 22:00 cet. all the best D1
Good to see you back, and hope all is well, in front of the computer screen and away from it. Even taking shorts now I see
  • #12,222
  • Sep 24, 2015 12:26pm Sep 24, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting Islander
{quote} Hi Dano - nice Dynamic Traders chart - your comments would be helpful to those who are not familiar with Robert's work Best Islander PS I have the hourly candle closed at 11:00 GMT showing +ve divergence and the highest (tick) volume for 2 weeks PSS I see a comment that the US Data today will have delayed release to news services due to the Pope's visit....now does that mean Bloomberg & Co still get it on time??
there's no commenting - Bears on the offensive
  • #12,223
  • Sep 24, 2015 1:58pm Sep 24, 2015 1:58pm
short squeeze SP500 close gap
  • #12,224
  • Sep 24, 2015 4:49pm Sep 24, 2015 4:49pm
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} Sl hit at BE, reenter long adding step by step
hi , after write this post i tried to attach a chart but i couldnīt. I have been several hours without posibility of post. Does anybody know what happen and why?.

In the other hand, i I could finally get some survive long trade. No good timing, maybe because lately i am adding volume concepts to my trading.Also no good exits, but this is another history. Anyway here my trading today.

Regards
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The only constant is change
  • #12,225
  • Sep 25, 2015 12:07am Sep 25, 2015 12:07am
Quoting stylinex
looks like BMW is next after VW. X3 Diesel just failed the test. BMW shares could be due for a beating on Friday as the scandal widens in Germany
I believe the issue with BMW X3 failed test was on a slopping surface, and not a standard road test, so the jury is still out on this anomaly. I expect more tests to take place on different car manufacturers and these tests will become more stringent over time, so the risk is ever greater in this industry. Unfortunately the Dax has a few car manufacturers, so this market carries this risk.

I have studied and re-mediated "operational" failures in businesses for years as part of my background as a Risk Management professional. Issues like the one VW is facing will be a long standing issue that will involve substantial testing of its vehicles in each of the countries it distributes to. So the quantified fines and expected maintenance costs to rectify the issue is very likely to rise. In addition, the reputational damage to the VW companies is huge, people are a lot more environmentally sensitive/conscious so I would expect this reputational damage to impact future sales of the group, in particular, I wouldn't be surprised to see other car manufacturers start running smear campaigns against VW.

Getting back to the Dax, I'm very concerned with the gap on open at +1.5% on a Friday, so be cautious traders. In addition, the Dax broke the 1x2 Gann Fan to the south side and history suggests once it has done this, the market usually corrects lower.
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  • #12,226
  • Sep 25, 2015 12:08am Sep 25, 2015 12:08am
Hi Guys,

What is the value per point/pip movement on the DAx30 mini for one lot?
  • #12,227
  • Sep 25, 2015 12:46am Sep 25, 2015 12:46am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I believe the issue with BMW X3 failed test was on a slopping surface, and not a standard road test, so the jury is still out on this anomaly. I expect more tests to take place on different car manufacturers and these tests will become more stringent over time, so the risk is ever greater in this industry. Unfortunately the Dax has a few car manufacturers, so this market carries this risk. I have studied and re-mediated "operational" failures in businesses for years as part of my background as a Risk Management professional. Issues like...
Also another thing about Regulators, usually the first major perpetrator will normally face large fines/penalties/remediation to deter others from doing the same act.

Fines/penalties/remediation costs generally get larger when other perpetrators are caught later. Repeat perpetrators will face larger fines/penalties/remediation than previous ones.

VW's balance sheet looks like it can weather the fines/remediation costs, but its going to take a massive hit to their market capitalisation, if they commit another act like this, it would likely spell the end of them.
  • #12,228
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:00am Sep 25, 2015 1:00am
Quoting cat
{quote} Good to see you back, and hope all is well, in front of the computer screen and away from it. Even taking shorts now I see
thanks. yes, when markets change, setup needs to be modified, too. still bullish in the long run (years)
"an apeīs an ape, a varletīs a varlet though they be clad in silk or scarlet."
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,229
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:03am Sep 25, 2015 1:03am
Quoting Dane
Hi Guys, What is the value per point/pip movement on the DAx30 mini for one lot?
Hi Dane,

it's $1/point if i'm not mistaken, though i would recommend you check with your broker
best,
  • #12,230
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:07am Sep 25, 2015 1:07am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I believe the issue with BMW X3 failed test was on a slopping surface, and not a standard road test, so the jury is still out on this anomaly. I expect more tests to take place on different car manufacturers and these tests will become more stringent over time, so the risk is ever greater in this industry. Unfortunately the Dax has a few car manufacturers, so this market carries this risk. I have studied and re-mediated "operational" failures in businesses for years as part of my background as a Risk Management professional. Issues like...
great risk assessment
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,231
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:14am Sep 25, 2015 1:14am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I believe the issue with BMW X3 failed test was on a slopping surface, and not a standard road test, so the jury is still out on this anomaly. I expect more tests to take place on different car manufacturers and these tests will become more stringent over time, so the risk is ever greater in this industry. Unfortunately the Dax has a few car manufacturers, so this market carries this risk. I have studied and re-mediated "operational" failures in businesses for years as part of my background as a Risk Management professional. Issues like...
i agree - the market should be able to carry this risk. and besides toyota managed to survive some years back when they had the problems with the breaks....(hmmmm - polluting the environment, which by the way we've been doing since the beg. of times, or not being able to stop on the highway....) anyways, a more likely catalyst for a break in the markets imo is Glencore - and important player in commodities trading arena. remains to be seen
wish you all a green day!
  • #12,232
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:33am Sep 25, 2015 1:33am
If anyone's looking for a top and a bottom today, on the upside I'd be surprised to see a break and hold much above 9680-9704. The downside is less clear cut for me, but somewhere around the 9470s would be a fair stab at this stage, oh and, Good morning Cats

ps - that was 76.4% resistance for those not using fib levels, though we'll have to wait and see whether London wants to break that or bring it back down.
  • #12,233
  • Sep 25, 2015 1:38am Sep 25, 2015 1:38am
GM . The Fed's Yellen's DOVISH comments yesterday evening expecting a US rate hike later this year sent the Dow up 200 pts from ~its 50% retrace from its rally off the August Low. Now to see IF this starts a Christmas Rally in the Dow / S&P - its now up 300 pts

In contrast, the Dax only just held above its August Low in a less convincing spinning top as opposed to the Dow's hammer / doji / pin. Will the DAx follow the Dow's lead??......TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,234
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:00am Sep 25, 2015 2:00am
I think if that DOW & S&P500 bounce back then the DAX for sure will ride along. I expect the DAX to be at around 10,800 minimum by the end of this year unless of course we really are in a bear market now and break through that 9321 mark on the DAX. Look at below then. I do wish I held some of those positions from last night on the DAX I had bough for a bounce. Sold too quickly though. Got it too excited too quickly and unloaded my share on that bounce (like sex lol..).
  • #12,235
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:01am Sep 25, 2015 2:01am
long @ 9607,8 sl -10 tp +30
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,236
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:03am Sep 25, 2015 2:03am
Quoting deltaone
long @ 9607,8 sl -10 tp +30
sl hit. -10

short @9599,8 sl -10 tp +30 sorry typo
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,237
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:04am Sep 25, 2015 2:04am
Sold at 9598 after grave-yard doji lower high. SL +1
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,238
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:05am Sep 25, 2015 2:05am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sl hit. -10 short @9599,8 sl -10 tp +30 sorry typo
sl hit. -10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,239
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:07am Sep 25, 2015 2:07am
Quoting Islander
Sold at 9598 after grave-yard doji lower high. SL +1
Closed +1 on stop and reversed to long at 9602 SL now +10

Edit: SL to +15
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,240
  • Sep 25, 2015 2:11am Sep 25, 2015 2:11am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Closed +1 on stop and reversed to long at 9602 SL now +10 Edit: SL to +15

Closed +15 on stop.
Trading Levels with WRBs
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