So I was talking to someone today and they predicted that the Aud would be sinking to 0.60 by the end of this year... What are everyone's thoughts around this?
So I was talking to someone today and they predicted that the Aud would be sinking to 0.60 by the end of this year... What are everyone's thoughts around this?
Ignored
i always sell audusd, audjpy, audchf, or buy gbpaud, euraud.....easy money
So I was talking to someone today and they predicted that the Aud would be sinking to 0.60 by the end of this year... What are everyone's thoughts around this?
Ignored
It very well may, however Aus does have higher interest rates than other developed nations except NZ of course (in fact it would take 8 or so US rate hikes to hit our overnight cash rate, so interest rate parity theory in this example seems to be taking a back seat for now). Also remember the RBA intervened down in the 50's / 40's some time ago, so whilst the RBA wants a lower AUD, it does have limits (probably because we import heaps of stuff).
Guess it's all up to china / commodities really (and if US actually has the balls to hike). If China were to ramp up fiscal / infrastructure stimulus again (unlikely? dunno), then the AUD may attract a few bids.
I'm not bullish AUD atm, but I do see downside risk limited if we head into the low 60's. At that point, Aus Govt. bond yields would be extremely attractive given FX risk is subdued. A lower AUD would imply risk off globally, so inflow for safe bonds may support the AUD somewhat (guessing there).
My guess is we may see low 60's, even 50's, but depending on other macros, it may not be for long (so much talk at the moment about fiscal stimulus for infrastructure, hard to imagine that wouldn't support the AUD / commodities at least a little bit. My 2 cents.
{quote} If China were to ramp up fiscal / infrastructure stimulus again (unlikely? dunno), then the AUD may attract a few bids.
Ignored
China construction industry practically came to a standstill due to clamping down on corruption practices. Nobody in China dares to embark on construction projects fearing corruption investigations. Officials do not approve construction projects also due to same reason. We knows what happen after if construction projects is lesser.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
Does this look like a rally forming? Or just a "strong" bounce and then back down? Trendlines don't suggest the buyers have taken control... but im pondering whether or not to keep the short. Darn.
From my personal perspective, .6940-.6950 is a good strong support, price seem to be showing signs that it will be bullish for the next few days/ weeks to come.
I have entered long on this trade for the rally upwards to come.
{quote} Does this look like a rally forming? Or just a "strong" bounce and then back down? Trendlines don't suggest the buyers have taken control... but im pondering whether or not to keep the short. Darn.
Ignored
As long as it stays below 0.7, the downtrend is still intact. 0.7 may becomes a strong round number resistance. This may be opportunity for more shorts to be added.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
{quote} As long as it stays below 0.7, the downtrend is still intact. 0.7 may becomes a strong round number resistance. This may be opportunity for more shorts to be added.
Ignored
Agree, but there is never certainty in FX. I will look for the bullish 4hr close and add even more longs.
{quote} As long as it stays below 0.7, the downtrend is still intact. 0.7 may becomes a strong round number resistance. This may be opportunity for more shorts to be added.
Ignored
I came out of it. 15pips lost. I'd rather sit back and watch. But I must say..the turnaround at 6938ish was sudden and quite ferocious! Missed opportunity. Good luck @Skyrek, maybe i'll join you in a long if it dips again.
{quote} I came out of it. 15pips lost. I'd rather sit back and watch. But I must say..the turnaround at 6938ish was sudden and quite ferocious! Missed opportunity. Good luck @Skyrek, maybe i'll join you in a long if it dips again.
Ignored
Thank you, u too, GL!
I have added even more longs currently. I see a very bullish 4hr candle being formed.
