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AUD/USD

  • #92,101
  • Sep 24, 2015 3:06am Sep 24, 2015 3:06am
Quoting ell3
TP at .6960. Still weary of a bounce. I guess likely to see it go lower but im happy with what I've got! How low do you guys think we'll hit today?
who knows? perhaps 6960 was enough for today or even for this week
  • #92,102
  • Sep 24, 2015 3:07am Sep 24, 2015 3:07am
Quoting ell3
TP at .6960. Still weary of a bounce. I guess likely to see it go lower but im happy with what I've got! How low do you guys think we'll hit today?
As long as we are below 0.7, we are on track to test 0.689 again. From there, we will see if it is a bounce or trend continuation lower.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #92,103
  • Sep 24, 2015 4:25am Sep 24, 2015 4:25am
entered again at .6970, couldn't resist the obvious potential. wow the poor aud is really being battered down!
  • #92,104
  • Sep 24, 2015 5:11am Sep 24, 2015 5:11am
Audusd in in very strong down canal, but i take one long trade with tight stop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 73 KB
  • #92,105
  • Sep 24, 2015 5:28am Sep 24, 2015 5:28am
So I was talking to someone today and they predicted that the Aud would be sinking to 0.60 by the end of this year... What are everyone's thoughts around this?
  • #92,106
  • Sep 24, 2015 5:47am Sep 24, 2015 5:47am
Quoting moonhead
So I was talking to someone today and they predicted that the Aud would be sinking to 0.60 by the end of this year... What are everyone's thoughts around this?
i always sell audusd, audjpy, audchf, or buy gbpaud, euraud.....easy money
  • #92,107
  • Sep 24, 2015 5:49am Sep 24, 2015 5:49am
Quoting myskip99
{quote} i always sell audusd, audjpy, audchf, or buy gbpaud, euraud.....easy money
But do you foresee the dollar sinking as low as 0.6 by year end? That seems like a stretch to me?
  • #92,108
  • Sep 24, 2015 6:03am Sep 24, 2015 6:03am
Quoting moonhead
So I was talking to someone today and they predicted that the Aud would be sinking to 0.60 by the end of this year... What are everyone's thoughts around this?
It very well may, however Aus does have higher interest rates than other developed nations except NZ of course (in fact it would take 8 or so US rate hikes to hit our overnight cash rate, so interest rate parity theory in this example seems to be taking a back seat for now). Also remember the RBA intervened down in the 50's / 40's some time ago, so whilst the RBA wants a lower AUD, it does have limits (probably because we import heaps of stuff).

Guess it's all up to china / commodities really (and if US actually has the balls to hike). If China were to ramp up fiscal / infrastructure stimulus again (unlikely? dunno), then the AUD may attract a few bids.

I'm not bullish AUD atm, but I do see downside risk limited if we head into the low 60's. At that point, Aus Govt. bond yields would be extremely attractive given FX risk is subdued. A lower AUD would imply risk off globally, so inflow for safe bonds may support the AUD somewhat (guessing there).

My guess is we may see low 60's, even 50's, but depending on other macros, it may not be for long (so much talk at the moment about fiscal stimulus for infrastructure, hard to imagine that wouldn't support the AUD / commodities at least a little bit. My 2 cents.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #92,109
  • Sep 24, 2015 6:24am Sep 24, 2015 6:24am
Quoting paddlepip
{quote} If China were to ramp up fiscal / infrastructure stimulus again (unlikely? dunno), then the AUD may attract a few bids.
China construction industry practically came to a standstill due to clamping down on corruption practices. Nobody in China dares to embark on construction projects fearing corruption investigations. Officials do not approve construction projects also due to same reason. We knows what happen after if construction projects is lesser.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #92,110
  • Sep 24, 2015 6:26am Sep 24, 2015 6:26am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} But do you foresee the dollar sinking as low as 0.6 by year end? That seems like a stretch to me?
Technically, AUDUSD below 0.7 is bad. Now staying below 0.6975 after week close will be even worse.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #92,111
  • Sep 24, 2015 6:56am Sep 24, 2015 6:56am
Damm..it bounced just 2pips shy of my Tp target!
  • #92,112
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:36am Sep 24, 2015 8:36am
Quoting ell3
Damm..it bounced just 2pips shy of my Tp target!
Does this look like a rally forming? Or just a "strong" bounce and then back down? Trendlines don't suggest the buyers have taken control... but im pondering whether or not to keep the short. Darn.
  • #92,113
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:39am Sep 24, 2015 8:39am
From my personal perspective, .6940-.6950 is a good strong support, price seem to be showing signs that it will be bullish for the next few days/ weeks to come.

I have entered long on this trade for the rally upwards to come.

SL below today's low.

Good luck all and more green pips to come!
  • #92,114
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:43am Sep 24, 2015 8:43am
Quoting ell3
{quote} Does this look like a rally forming? Or just a "strong" bounce and then back down? Trendlines don't suggest the buyers have taken control... but im pondering whether or not to keep the short. Darn.
As long as it stays below 0.7, the downtrend is still intact. 0.7 may becomes a strong round number resistance. This may be opportunity for more shorts to be added.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #92,115
  • Sep 24, 2015 8:57am Sep 24, 2015 8:57am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} As long as it stays below 0.7, the downtrend is still intact. 0.7 may becomes a strong round number resistance. This may be opportunity for more shorts to be added.
Agree, but there is never certainty in FX. I will look for the bullish 4hr close and add even more longs.
  • #92,116
  • Sep 24, 2015 9:08am Sep 24, 2015 9:08am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} As long as it stays below 0.7, the downtrend is still intact. 0.7 may becomes a strong round number resistance. This may be opportunity for more shorts to be added.
I came out of it. 15pips lost. I'd rather sit back and watch. But I must say..the turnaround at 6938ish was sudden and quite ferocious! Missed opportunity. Good luck @Skyrek, maybe i'll join you in a long if it dips again.
  • #92,117
  • Sep 24, 2015 9:42am Sep 24, 2015 9:42am
Quoting ell3
{quote} I came out of it. 15pips lost. I'd rather sit back and watch. But I must say..the turnaround at 6938ish was sudden and quite ferocious! Missed opportunity. Good luck @Skyrek, maybe i'll join you in a long if it dips again.
Thank you, u too, GL!

I have added even more longs currently. I see a very bullish 4hr candle being formed.
  • #92,118
  • Sep 24, 2015 9:51am Sep 24, 2015 9:51am
opened another short intraday though
  • #92,119
  • Sep 24, 2015 9:58am Sep 24, 2015 9:58am
Quoting Windstrown
opened another short intraday though
alright, GL mate
  • #92,120
  • Sep 24, 2015 10:00am Sep 24, 2015 10:00am
thanks , hit my tp today earlier ^.^470 pips long live aud
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