News trading discussion - continuation

scalping DAX

You can safely go to rest.
All good trading.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Why in October "no", and before the end of the year, "it is so"

Bullard (FOMC, Fed) October sees a good opportunity to start raising interest rates. But that's why the rate increase could still happen in 2105, but probably not in October.

During the press conference, Janet Yellen asked almost direct question, roughly paraphrasing, "you warn us about raising rates, whether the press conference," to which Yellen said, "if we raise interest rates, of course, we will collect a press conference ". Press conference in October is not yet scheduled.

Bullard, usually in a flock of hawks, and considers that the excessive stretching of the timing of a rate hike would be a departure from the direction of monetary policy, which adheres to the Fed.

Traditional "blue" Williams argued that still requires "a little" patience before raising interest rates. His "little" de facto he also supported the growth expectations.

The strongest statement appeared Lockhart, who noted that "the October meeting will be important for the Fed," and "refusal to increase rates - a big risk."

Traditionally it overtighten the blanket in different directions, but it is worth noting one important observation: all FOMC members from the post noted the US economy to achieve most of the goals.

Markets will continue to look for signals to clarify expectations about the timing of the Fed raising interest rates, in this plane looks quite actual performance Janet Yellen on Friday. Pay attention.

The markets see the chance of the Fed raising interest rates in October under the 15% -25%.

Wednesday
4:45
09/23/15
CN manufacturing PMI index
(CN Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
probability trades.

For China, a lot of attention lately, and so have to wake up to oversee the publication of indicator PMI. The Chinese authorities have complained about the excessive thickening clouds markets here and see what kind of mood will show us the manufacturing sentiment indicator.
Forecast 47.5, in that case - a zone of pessimism and 2.5 basis points below the line of demarcation zones sentiment.
In the circumstances, the belief in the Fed's decision, lower prices for raw materials and production activity China, actualization expectations of action to stimulate the economy by the RBA, the script pessimist seems most appropriate for trading (a fact lower than forecast) as the script optimist (a fact higher than forecast) still leave some questions in the fog - hardly swing value above the zone of optimism as sharp fluctuations historically PMI for could not be found, and if the indicator is in the area of ​​the negative influence - questions, questions remain about the prospects. Moreover, the question of a recession in Australia is still open.

Wednesday
10:30
09/23/15
EU manufacturing PMI index in Germany
(EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Mario Draghi will speak at 16:00 the same day, before the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary regulation. Perhaps it would be more interesting event for the markets, rather than the publication of the German Manufacturing PMI.
Recall that the ECB introduced a leniency program whereby the Bank buys bonds worth 60 billion euros monthly. The program was launched in March and expected to be completed in September 2016. On the subject of speculation in the markets arise as to the timing of the program, and in terms of its volume. It is expected that the ECB may either increase the size of the program or to extend the period of its validity - any argument supporting such actions will put pressure on the euro.

Wednesday
15:30
09/23/15
CA The core retail sales
(CA Core Retail Sales), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Canada has traditionally suffered from fluctuations in oil prices and raw materials. Governor of the Bank of Canada Poloz, expected on Monday supported this idea, but argues that Canada can adapt to such price levels. I do not painless, but still.
The indicator of retail sales is usually mix with the consumer price index, which means - net deficit statistics. Subconsciously, the markets are more susceptible to the pessimist scenario, on the optimistic scenario is better to prepare a short movement.

hello vfish okay? I wanted to learn his method because the topic did not understand very well, I like to operate news but I have not been very successful and thought its interesting method, tell me you read the last two candles in m1 before the news to entecipar? how do you do? if you can help me I would be very grateful, thank you, sorry for bad English

Hello China.

Thursday
11:00
09/24/15
NO GOOD Interest
(NO Interest Rate), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
09/24/15
US natural gas reserves HARD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

At 8:30 am EST the US will release Core Durable Goods orders. Expected at 0.2 after a prior of 0.4.

Good luck everybody!.

USDNOK

Friday
15:30
09/25/15
US Final GDP
(US Final GDP), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
28% probability trades.

All a good weekend.

USD Natural Gas Storage 106B 95B 73B
#NatGas_X5,M1
Place to post manual trades.

[цитата = Топпо QQQ; 8509999]. USD Хранение природного газа 106В 95B 73B # NatGas_X5, М1 место для размещения ручной сделок {} изображения [/ цитата]

Wednesday.
11:30
09/30/15
GB Final GDP
(GB Final GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Wednesday.
15:15
09/30/15
US ADP number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday.
15:30
09/30/15
CA GDP growth GOOD
(CA GDP), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

To understand how business responds to a couple of different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
_________________
CA GDP growth
date of
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
USDCAD reaction in paragraphs
Comments
07/31/2015 40 0.2 (back to) Reaction to 40 n., A pullback from US data
07/30/2015 40 0.2 with full back the pair, a sharp pullback.
06/30/2015 -0.2 40 Height couple
03/03/2015 40 0.1 Norm drop
01/30/2015 25 0.2 Small grew couples

I'm not interested.

Hey vvFish ,

Would you mind telling me the probabilistic figures of the news trading . Or you use standard deviation only , and if you do what do you use to calculate it

Thanks in advance