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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #11,901
  • Sep 20, 2015 5:11pm Sep 20, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Ok... So what are you seeing? Further drops or a bounce?
The count is calling for more downside below the recent lows...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #11,902
  • Sep 21, 2015 12:16am Sep 21, 2015 12:16am
Dax is back on the 1x1.5 line (image 1), which is the average line of velocity that I think the market will meander along for the next year (until the next great crash).

Image 2 shows that the market tracks the 1x1.5 line for at least 1.5 years before a break to the 1x2 line and the market corrects.

I favour long positions at this level. It may go lower, but I think it will eventually track along the 1x1.5 line.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAXX-1C.png Size: 262 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAXX-1A.png Size: 393 KB
  • #11,903
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:39am Sep 21, 2015 1:39am
i'm having a bullish bias, especially if the price can keep above the .618 Fibo (Oct 2014 lows - April 2015 highs) @9,900...though VW is getting hit hard @ 10% due to that emission scandal...
best,
  • #11,904
  • Sep 21, 2015 1:41am Sep 21, 2015 1:41am
what i am noticing is a parallel relation between DAX and Oil, correct me if i am wrong but it is obvious to me that they move up and down together .
can someone explain what makes DAX ( or maybe stocks in general ) be connected with Oil prices?
  • #11,905
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:22am Sep 21, 2015 2:22am
Dax30 Short Trade Open/Close:
Entered from retrace, closed below half level before LO.
31.3 pips average, 125 pips total gain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX30M5 Short 21.9..png Size: 50 KB
PVSRA
  • #11,906
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:24am Sep 21, 2015 2:24am
GM - sold 9898 SL now +10
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,907
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:28am Sep 21, 2015 2:28am
Quoting Islander
GM - sold 9898 SL now +10
Closed +50
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,908
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:30am Sep 21, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Closed +50
Would have been nice if you had posted your entry price
  • #11,909
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:34am Sep 21, 2015 2:34am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Would have been nice if you had posted your entry price
hint - 9898
  • #11,910
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:35am Sep 21, 2015 2:35am
Quoting Decu33
{quote} hint - 9898
What I had meant was the trade before being sold/closed.
  • #11,911
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:36am Sep 21, 2015 2:36am
Dax30 Short Trade Open/Close:
Re-enter from retrace.
31 pips average, 62 pips total gain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX30M5 Re-enter 21.9..png Size: 62 KB
PVSRA
  • #11,912
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:38am Sep 21, 2015 2:38am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} What I had meant was the trade before being sold/closed.
Islander is a trader and not selling signals. This way, he gives you oportunity to learn to become your own best signal service!
PVSRA
  • #11,913
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:46am Sep 21, 2015 2:46am
Long ES
  • #11,914
  • Sep 21, 2015 2:49am Sep 21, 2015 2:49am
Quoting ash1485
what i am noticing is a parallel relation between DAX and Oil, correct me if i am wrong but it is obvious to me that they move up and down together . can someone explain what makes DAX ( or maybe stocks in general ) be connected with Oil prices?
This may help, an excerpt of what Delta1 sent to me:
"K+S is the only real basic resources company in the Dax30. EON and RWE have oil services, but core business is energy production (coal, gas, nuclear power, clean energy). BASF has oil and gas service too - but oil and gas is also an input factor for their large chemical production unit.

Dax30 is largely importing commodities for its manufacturing and services industry, so lower input factor costs are better for the economy. "

The correlation matrix (page 15 attached), has the Dax30 and Oil having a very low positive relationship, which makes sense fundamentally.

Hope this helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf CorrelationMatrix.pdf   1.0 MB | 787 downloads
  • #11,915
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:16am Sep 21, 2015 3:16am
I'm having some issues with this broker's charts and had to use anotherone to get a DJIA chart open.

For information, here's what I've been doing. All except the retrace buy were worth ~50 ticks and were simple KISS entries as I've posted before. BFN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sep 21 D 1m 0810.png Size: 28 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,916
  • Edited 3:30am Sep 21, 2015 3:18am | Edited 3:30am
A heads-up for today: Volkswagen is trading -16% to -18%, so this heavily skews the movement of Dax compared to other European indices. The potential multibillion fine from the American EPA will keep the stock (and the Dax) down for the day.

EDIT: The other car manufacturers Daimler and BMW are also trading -3 to -4% so not a happy day for the Dax.
  • #11,917
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:29am Sep 21, 2015 3:29am
Dax30 Long Trade Open/Close:
Entered on the break of the whole level, closed after some high activity.
23.5 pips average, 47 pips total gain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX30M5 long 21.9..png Size: 62 KB
PVSRA
  • #11,918
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:32am Sep 21, 2015 3:32am
Quoting attilafx
Long ES

SL BE
  • #11,919
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:42am Sep 21, 2015 3:42am
Quoting squallpips
A heads-up for today: Volkswagen is trading -16% to -18%, so this heavily skews the movement of Dax compared to other European indices. The potential multibillion fine from the American EPA will keep the stock (and the Dax) down for the day. EDIT: The other car manufacturers Daimler and BMW are also trading -3 to -4% so not a happy day for the Dax.
Just realised this... This is not good for the Dax and VW.

"As many as 482,000 diesel-powered cars are said to be affected. With fines theoretically costing as much as $30,000 per vehicle, VW could face a bill totaling more than $18 billion (16 billion euros).

EPA also ordered VW to fix the cars at its own expense, which would likely add further costs. "

Considering H1 2015 profit for VW was EU7.6Bn, then this potential fine and recall work will wipe out its profit for the year.
  • #11,920
  • Sep 21, 2015 3:52am Sep 21, 2015 3:52am
Quoting attilafx
{quote} SL BE
SL BE +4
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