AUD/USD | Page 4600 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #91,981
  • Edited 6:39am Sep 19, 2015 6:23am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting diggo
{quote} I wouldn't touch it until this month/quarter is over at least. Then reassess. The fed announcement has given the green light for an extended bull run.
I was referring to the bull run statement, and yes I know that no one was implying that the Australian economy is suddenly strong. I was just making a point about the basic premise of forex trading (which of course is a different animal these days with CBs pulling the strings).

I disagree that the FED's decision opens the door to an Ozzie 'extended' bull run. Also, I am not trading 'against' the FED I am trading with the trend and 'against' an economy that still has some struggles ahead.

There is a good possibility that the RBA and the FED will not change rates for the rest of the year so we are left with technicals and fundamentals. The Ozzie retraced roughly 5.6% from its 9/4 multi year low. That is a healthy retrace and may be technically just what the doctor ordered. Fundamentally going forward I have to give the edge to the US from a perception standpoint even though I believe the 'numbers' don't truly reflect what's going on in the US economy. I am not saying I am UJ bullish or necessarily AU short either but I don't expect the Ozzie to make it back to 7500 or near the daily 200SMA. I suspect we will range for awhile and then see 7000 again.

Overall, there is too much global uncertainty, too much commodity price pressure, too many things that can go boom in the night for me to be holding riskier assets. I'd rather be selling the risk rallies, the Ozzie, Kiwi, EJ, etc.

Anyways, always good to hear another traders view. There are plenty of green pips for all of us
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,982
  • Sep 19, 2015 8:53am Sep 19, 2015 8:53am
Quoting Expo33
And there we have it boys and girls, another 35 pip drop right back to the 200SMA on the 4H and this Doji followed by a 100 pip pin bar on the daily. Not the most bullish set up I've seen in my life It makes sense though. Who wants to hold risk over the weekend especially with the Dow Jones down nearly 2% on the day {image}
200 sma, doji, pin bar or anything of this kind does not have much meaning or importance. there is no guarantee that next candle will not be a huge bullish candle
As Above, So Below
  • #91,983
  • Sep 19, 2015 8:58am Sep 19, 2015 8:58am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Rates on hold. Lows of the month/quarter set in stone now. The fed decision unlocks 0.755x for the next leg up once the first target (0.725x) is cleared.
I have no clue how long you have been trading but anyone who has at least 3 yrs experience can tell for sure that there is absolutely nothing set in stone in financial markets. Stating otherwise is simply ridiculous.
As Above, So Below
  • #91,984
  • Edited 10:27am Sep 19, 2015 10:12am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} 200 sma, doji, pin bar or anything of this kind does not have much meaning or importance. there is no guarantee that next candle will not be a huge bullish candle
I never stated that next week is guaranteed to be bearish because of those two daily candles, but it does tell me where a good entry for selling may be. Of course, tomorrow my ex wife could suddenly become delightful and pleasant. Anything can happen.

Of course no indicator can tell you anything about the future price but I find the 200SMA is very often well respected and is important to my trading plan.

Below I see a dozen or so 200SMA rejections on the 4H over 2 weeks. For me a productive tool for finding high probability selling entries while trading with the trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 200.jpg Size: 210 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,985
  • Sep 20, 2015 11:53am Sep 20, 2015 11:53am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} 200 sma, doji, pin bar or anything of this kind does not have much meaning or importance. there is no guarantee that next candle will not be a huge bullish candle
True but there is no guarantee on anything trading and the grave stone doji and the fact it is OB and standing at a previous support line can be not a bad short entry position.
  • #91,986
  • Sep 20, 2015 12:24pm Sep 20, 2015 12:24pm
copper price down and looks like it might go lower this week.
Iron is ranging.
honestly i want to see if there is a bear monthly candle but i made my move on friday and it paid off now i have a nice trailing stop oppened.
Attached Image
  • #91,987
  • Sep 20, 2015 5:01pm Sep 20, 2015 5:01pm
Aud/Usd maintains the gains from last week, just below 0.7200 level. Strong support can be found at 0.7170.
  • #91,988
  • Sep 20, 2015 10:28pm Sep 20, 2015 10:28pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I was referring to the bull run statement, and yes I know that no one was implying that the Australian economy is suddenly strong. I was just making a point about the basic premise of forex trading (which of course is a different animal these days with CBs pulling the strings). I disagree that the FED's decision opens the door to an Ozzie 'extended' bull run. Also, I am not trading 'against' the FED I am trading with the trend and 'against' an economy that still has some struggles ahead. There is a good possibility that the RBA and the FED...
My apologies, "extended" was the wrong word to use. I believe we are only at the beginning of a temporary bull run (1-3 months) barring a catastrophic collapse in China.

As I said, I agree with you in the longer term. However, the fed's decision will create a sell-off in the USD in the coming months. The RBA is content with interest rates at the moment, and will be for quite some time. We have rock solid multi-year support at 0.685x. I had a pending buy order at 0.686 but we didn't quite make it. Perhaps in December we will break below this level with a US rate hike. I will not be selling until at least 0.755x.
  • #91,989
  • Sep 20, 2015 10:47pm Sep 20, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} My apologies, "extended" was the wrong word to use. I believe we are only at the beginning of a temporary bull run (1-3 months) barring a catastrophic collapse in China. As I said, I agree with you in the longer term. However, the fed's decision will create a sell-off in the USD in the coming months. The RBA is content with interest rates at the moment, and will be for quite some time. We have rock solid multi-year support at 0.685x. I had a pending buy order at 0.686 but we didn't quite make it. Perhaps in December we will break below this...
Certainly no apology necessary just swapping views and will have to agree to disagree. Of course I don't trade longer term, just looking for some intraday bounces

I don't think the no rate hike decision has any staying power. IMO, fair value for UJ seems to rest on 120 and fair value for AU seems to rest on 7180. With so many global uncertainties possible I just don't see bulls being able to create enough momentum to make it back to 7550. Sellers are likely positioned and ready to beat back any short term rallies. And as I said before, there are numerous potential global 'risk off' events just brewing and waiting to come to fruition.

Trade safe and may the pips be with you
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,990
  • Sep 20, 2015 11:26pm Sep 20, 2015 11:26pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Certainly no apology necessary just swapping views and will have to agree to disagree. Of course I don't trade longer term, just looking for some intraday bounces I don't think the no rate hike decision has any staying power. IMO, fair value for UJ seems to rest on 120 and fair value for AU seems to rest on 7180. With so many global uncertainties possible I just don't see bulls being able to create enough momentum to make it back to 7550. Sellers are likely positioned and ready to beat back any short term rallies. And as I said before,...
From experience, I think it has more power than anything. A 600 pip bounce isn't much in the big scheme of things. I wouldn't be surprised to go even higher. We've had three 600-900 pip bull runs in the past couple of years in a strong bear market. Coming off historically important support is a good place to do it. We also have the 50% fib of the previous leg at 0.7535 which happens more times than not.. I'm sure we will clear plenty of soft bear hands in the next couple of months before the longer term trend resumes.
  • #91,991
  • Sep 20, 2015 11:47pm Sep 20, 2015 11:47pm
I will be worried if i am having longs in this trade.
All i see is many bearish 4hr and hourly candles currently.
On my hourly chart, candle already close below my uptrend line.

Hence, bearish momentum is definitely building up.
  • #91,992
  • Sep 20, 2015 11:53pm Sep 20, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting SkyrEk
I will be worried if i am having longs in this trade. All i see is many bearish 4hr and hourly candles currently. On my hourly chart, candle already close below my uptrend line. Hence, bearish momentum is definitely building up.
how low can we go?
Attached Image
  • #91,993
  • Sep 21, 2015 12:54am Sep 21, 2015 12:54am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 350 KB
  • #91,994
  • Sep 21, 2015 6:17am Sep 21, 2015 6:17am
looks like a sell with those spikey tops off resistance
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 28 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #91,995
  • Sep 21, 2015 8:12am Sep 21, 2015 8:12am
crosing fingers to see channel break
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eOaiYBT.png Size: 12 KB
  • #91,996
  • Sep 21, 2015 8:34am Sep 21, 2015 8:34am
sell@ 0.7146, tp0.7100
  • #91,997
  • Sep 21, 2015 10:10am Sep 21, 2015 10:10am
im really bleeding out alot today.
kinda surprised at the strength of the USD and how the aud is just sinking non stop together with the EUR and NZD and ..well.. generally across the board.

i didn't quite expect the bearish trend to return in play in such committed fashion so fast.
mulling over whether or not to stop loss or to hold, betting on a change in direction. the technicals don't seem to mean much and the fundamentals are just conflicting in the short term.

anyone got a take on this?
  • #91,998
  • Sep 21, 2015 11:08am Sep 21, 2015 11:08am
Quoting ell3
im really bleeding out alot today. kinda surprised at the strength of the USD and how the aud is just sinking non stop together with the EUR and NZD and ..well.. generally across the board. i didn't quite expect the bearish trend to return in play in such committed fashion so fast. mulling over whether or not to stop loss or to hold, betting on a change in direction. the technicals don't seem to mean much and the fundamentals are just conflicting in the short term. anyone got a take on this?
If you care to read it, I spelled out why this isn't surprising to me on post 91980 and 91981
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,999
  • Sep 21, 2015 11:10am Sep 21, 2015 11:10am
Quoting ell3
im really bleeding out alot today. kinda surprised at the strength of the USD and how the aud is just sinking non stop together with the EUR and NZD and ..well.. generally across the board. i didn't quite expect the bearish trend to return in play in such committed fashion so fast. mulling over whether or not to stop loss or to hold, betting on a change in direction. the technicals don't seem to mean much and the fundamentals are just conflicting in the short term. anyone got a take on this?
Hi, Sorry to hear about your bleeding out.

All i can say is, do not listen to analysis said by experts or be influenced by others. Take the trade on your own together with your own strategies. Trust the charts, nothing else. The chart infront of you tells you everything, you don't need someone else to tell you another.

Like i have said in my earlier posts, it is definitely bearish. While some people in this forum said that it is a trend reversal (to bullish trend), i didn't agree to it even though it was a populist view. I held on to my shorts, and added even more shorts at .7270.

Have a trade plan, a strategy and of course, the trend is your friend.
Fundamentals and Technical must tally for a successful trade.

I won't say i am the best in here, however, you can always learn alot from what others talk about here.

Nonetheless, here is my track record currently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 146 KB
  • #92,000
  • Sep 21, 2015 11:39am Sep 21, 2015 11:39am
thanks for that @expo33 & @skyrek

yeah, i know which way it's headed...got a long term short in there from much higher fortunately, aiming for .71.

but was trying to steal a few pips from the small up and down swings....bleah. unfortunately for me i have this nasty habit of loading my short term positions with a larger % of my capital. when it went from .7180 to .7155ish in 10mins, i thought..hmm, nah not too far off. but then it went and broke all the MAs. took me awhile to wisen up and cut loss at .7126 eventually. way too late. anyway, that's just one bad day!
18 traders viewing now