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AUD/USD

  • #91,961
  • Sep 17, 2015 10:34pm Sep 17, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting SkyrEk
I survived the spike up yesterday, added more shorts instead above .72. I agree with dab and i will be cautious being too overly long on this pair. You may ask why? 1) China isn't in good shape and won't be anytime soon 2) Commodities are likely to stay low 3) USD will strengthen after the dust settle, as long as FED is looking forward to a rate hike, USD will strengthen until FED really hike than will it weaken (initially) That's my humble opinion
So out of interest, considering the huge spike last night, which saw the Aud rise up to .728... What do you think will happen beyond now, over the next few months?

It's now dropped down to around .719. Do you think the Aud could hold around this area? A lot of Australian banks altered their prediction of the Aud at the end of the year sitting around .66 or .67, originally they predicted higher.

Ideally, I'd be interested in knowing if you could predict where the Aud could sit in early november, as I am heading to the US for a holiday, from Australia for a few weeks. No wrong answers, any prediction would be greatly appreciated!
  • #91,962
  • Sep 17, 2015 10:57pm Sep 17, 2015 10:57pm
Quoting moonhead
{quote} So out of interest, considering the huge spike last night, which saw the Aud rise up to .728... What do you think will happen beyond now, over the next few months? It's now dropped down to around .719. Do you think the Aud could hold around this area? A lot of Australian banks altered their prediction of the Aud at the end of the year sitting around .66 or .67, originally they predicted higher. Ideally, I'd be interested in knowing if you could predict where the Aud could sit in early november, as I am heading to the US for a holiday, from...
Hi Moonhead, apologies but i can't really predict where will the currency rate be during November. However, i trade based on probabilities. .72 will be my gauge, if it goes above, then i will see if it closes above. If the week closes below .72, then i will think that more downward movement next week. When FED made their announcement, AUD spike up but retrace the bull spike almost the next hour. Compared to euro, euro bulls remained while aussie bulls got slaughtered and closed below .72.

The banks prediction could be true, could be not. No one can that certain.
  • #91,963
  • Sep 18, 2015 12:58am Sep 18, 2015 12:58am
Went long again at 0.71662 and locked profit at 0.72....risk free trade

Easy trade AU and a no brainer trade for sure where its going
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  • #91,964
  • Sep 18, 2015 1:07am Sep 18, 2015 1:07am
Moved SL up to 0.72072 to trail market and get more pips ! She wants to keep on moving up !

You bloody beauty mate !
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  • #91,965
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:44am Sep 18, 2015 2:44am
Hi peeps. Where should be one looking to sell Aud?
  • #91,966
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:50am Sep 18, 2015 2:50am
Quoting alz
Hi peeps. Where should be one looking to sell Aud?
I wouldn't touch it until this month/quarter is over at least. Then reassess. The fed announcement has given the green light for an extended bull run.
  • #91,967
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:11am Sep 18, 2015 3:11am
Now that the big FOMC decision out, lifting AUDUSD beyond 0.7200 upper trend-line resistance of a well-established descending trend-channel the pair now is attempting to conquer 50-day SMA resistance near 0.7250. The pair seems all set to continue its upward trajectory towards its next major resistance near 0.7390-0.7400 zone.
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  • #91,968
  • Sep 18, 2015 3:23am Sep 18, 2015 3:23am
Quoting alz
Hi peeps. Where should be one looking to sell Aud?
Best to wait out for reversal camdles firdt before shorting. Otherwise, it looks rather bullish currently.
  • #91,969
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:55am Sep 18, 2015 7:55am
won't close this until it crosses and closes below the 20 ema so far +85 pips

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forex forex forex
  • #91,970
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:05am Sep 18, 2015 8:05am
To.75 on the Fed news and then down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #91,971
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:31am Sep 18, 2015 8:31am
Quoting swimmax
won't close this until it crosses and closes below the 20 ema so far +85 pips {image}
I added a little more and immediately set a tight SL (just for fun) looking for it to go above the HH then set BE
forex forex forex
  • #91,972
  • Sep 18, 2015 8:50am Sep 18, 2015 8:50am
Quoting swimmax
{quote} I added a little more and immediately set a tight SL (just for fun) looking for it to go above the HH then set BE
S/o on the new trade about to step out of the longer trade as well...
forex forex forex
  • #91,973
  • Sep 18, 2015 10:16am Sep 18, 2015 10:16am
Quoting alz
Hi peeps. Where should be one looking to sell Aud?
bit late now but I should have said just below the 7276 high from after FOMC news.

If it now revisits - just below the 7280 high should provide some resistance but less than the 7276 high.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,974
  • Edited 11:01am Sep 18, 2015 10:38am | Edited 11:01am
I keep hearing how the FED decision somehow makes this now a bull run for the Ozzie? Really?

Let's not forget, the basic premise of a currency pair relationship: the health (or perceived health) of one economy verse another.

The FED not hiking rates doesn't suddenly make the Australian economy strong. And even though I think in many ways the US "recovery" is smoke and mirrors, the bottom line is that there is at least the perception that some type of recovery is happening. The FED's impotence is just that, the FED's impotence. But make no mistake, there are still many problems and challenges facing the Australian economy. In addition, regardless of this little Ozzie erection (sorry couldn't help it) the projection for interest rate direction for each country is what? Ozzie...no change or rate cut, US...no change or rate hike with the likelihood that nothing will happen in either country for the rest of the year. So beware bulls, you can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig

On the Daily you see the Doji on FED decision day followed by today's rejection of the short term trend line. Looks like we have a bit of a pin bar/tweezer developing heading into the weekend. Also, previous support turned resistance in the 7260 area, who do you think is selling at this level now....hmmm....the big boys and girls?

Another thing to note is the 38.2RT from the last major move down, exactly what you would expect in a strong downtrend

Looking at the 4H, there was a clear break through the 200SMA band, however it seems now we may be headed right back to the 7190 area where the 200SMA is on the 4H. Also note, the bearish divergence, not text book, but still jumps out at me.

Just my rant.....it has been a productive week. I hope everyone recharges over the weekend and comes back ready to do battle on Monday.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,975
  • Sep 18, 2015 2:48pm Sep 18, 2015 2:48pm
And there we have it boys and girls, another 35 pip drop right back to the 200SMA on the 4H and this Doji followed by a 100 pip pin bar on the daily. Not the most bullish set up I've seen in my life

It makes sense though. Who wants to hold risk over the weekend especially with the Dow Jones down nearly 2% on the day
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,976
  • Sep 18, 2015 7:00pm Sep 18, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Expo33
however it seems now we may be headed right back to the 7190 area where the 200SMA is on the 4H.
Spot on!
  • #91,977
  • Sep 18, 2015 9:44pm Sep 18, 2015 9:44pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Spot on!
Thank you. If only it was that easy when I actually have a live position
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #91,978
  • Sep 18, 2015 10:30pm Sep 18, 2015 10:30pm
We had a new Prime Minister. Also note iron ore prices came back up. I don't think FOMC has much to do with it, like the news says. Probably temporary or a short term liquidity move by market makers.
  • #91,979
  • Sep 19, 2015 3:56am Sep 19, 2015 3:56am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Dont underestimate the power of 0.70/0.68. Go back more than just a few years and you will see we've had some strong bounces off this historically important level. Bears need a weekly close below this level otherwise we will be going up. I suspect it will hold UNLESS the fed decide to lift off this month.
Rates on hold. Lows of the month/quarter set in stone now. The fed decision unlocks 0.755x for the next leg up once the first target (0.725x) is cleared.
  • #91,980
  • Sep 19, 2015 4:13am Sep 19, 2015 4:13am
Quoting Expo33
I keep hearing how the FED decision somehow makes this now a bull run for the Ozzie? Really? Let's not forget, the basic premise of a currency pair relationship: the health (or perceived health) of one economy verse another. The FED not hiking rates doesn't suddenly make the Australian economy strong.
I don't think anybody said that. Australia's woes are well documented, nothing has changed there. The Fed's decision will weaken the USD (for a couple of months at least), that's a simple fundamental fact. You would be a fool to ignore that.

The only positive for the USD from the announcement, was Yellen's comments on the recent global turmoil. This may or may not keep a lid on the rallies.

Longer term I am targeting below 0.60 for the aussie. Right now is not the time to be bearish however. Trade against the Fed at your peril...
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