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  • #136,921
  • Sep 15, 2015 5:53am Sep 15, 2015 5:53am
Quoting Pharm0r
good time for a vacation. good luck everyone. nice call on oil sisse
Are you kidding me ..you are going to miss the FED? ... lol enjoy mate..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,922
  • Sep 15, 2015 6:41am Sep 15, 2015 6:41am
Quoting sisse
.... inline (with revisions) retail sales but ufff what a miss in the Empire State Manufacturing Index. It wasn't a one off last time but its actually a massive turn around. This number will bring tail (sadly it remind me of the pre financial collapse in 2008) when NY turned sour way before the rest of the US.... Whatever the case, strong misses in expectations in Germany and now in NY .... FED under extreme pressure as expected and they may have missed the window for hikes earlier this year .... NY to come but nothing to see across the board. Expecting...
yep still choppy ...
  • #136,923
  • Sep 15, 2015 7:14am Sep 15, 2015 7:14am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Are you kidding me ..you are going to miss the FED? ... lol enjoy mate.. sisse
I am.

All this work up for nothing.

I'll actually be on the road during the FED too, so I'll probably miss the whole thing. I'll see if Schickeria will text me the info...

Still holding from 1.1606, so at least I'm positioned. Otherwise I'll check in when I can, and provide a picture or two

Bath country is calling
  • #136,924
  • Sep 15, 2015 8:02am Sep 15, 2015 8:02am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I am. All this work up for nothing. I'll actually be on the road during the FED too, so I'll probably miss the whole thing. I'll see if Schickeria will text me the info... Still holding from 1.1606, so at least I'm positioned. Otherwise I'll check in when I can, and provide a picture or two Bath country is calling
Have fun! Good thing you have a short running from this high. Hope for you it goes in the right direction to grow into a nice surprise when you come back.
  • #136,925
  • Edited 1:47pm Sep 16, 2015 5:39am | Edited 1:47pm
►Lets the new season begin !!!.

Plenty of data across the board and key areas in play for the rates play. Lots of things had happened and we are 3 months deep in RMT in play since the last macro fundamental update. Lots of topics to cover till tomorrow so good time for a review and overview for the upcoming FED.

Quoting sisse
Bonds have been absolutely crazy and as usual before macro moves there are the earliest alerts that major mid and long term legs are cooking. From today FED meeting we are officially entering in RMT (Rates Mode trading). Except from unforeseen externalities the next couple of quarters Rates will be in full and only control....
For those following the conversations in this thread and/or outside. Macro fundamental view updates from last update June 2015:

Quoting sisse
..."setting YEARLY highs" in play in US equities, Oil, Gold, Euro, CHF and AUD....[check]
► After losing more than +/-12% in Equites, Gold, CHF and AUD and a staggering +/-40% in oil we pretty much confirmed the yearly highs as expected. Euro yearly was already pretty much set earlier this year...

Very juice legs completed in all majors. The juiciest one OIL and Equities. In currencies as widely expected the best performers were the pair where both sides are aligned (CAD and AUD) and in the other side the worse performers were the always confused GBP and to a lesser extend the Euro that found stronger foot via decent macro numbers and Asian money running to ride the ECB QE Pig...


► Again like last June, Treasuries leading the alerts for tomorrow. Key 2 year benchmark yield breaking multiyear highs yesterday and flirting to run high today in the NY session. The other leading market Gold a bit subdue still but on the other side of the spectrum flirting to break up in a extended leg that can be trigger as early as today inflation reports !!!.


► GOLD and Dollar are no brainer trades with or without hikes as they will get the direct hit short term while Equites are pretty much isolated in neutral.


► A rate hike will be a strong positive signal for the mid and long term that the economy is ready to walk alone but the short term impact of Bastards having to ride the pig without the FED handicap will take its tool at least until the end of the year triggering a zig zag play in US equities (down and up we go for a long term wave) and a direct play in dollar and gold (straight to the floor non stop)


► FED chickening out will have implications for the real economy an it will trigger a easy but limited ride up short term in Equities on 0 interest rates for a couple of months but after retrace it will set us in a very noisy and extended chop zone for a couple of quarters. White in gold and dollar EURO [EDIT] it will trigger a sharp zigzag move (sharp up in both non stop and then down we go to the lows of the year non stop) on portfolios clearing dollar EURO [EDIT] and gold...

---- ----- ----

Exact levels later but for now early fireworks with inflation numbers missing targets and NO HIKES look ready to roll tomorrow. NY can kickstart the move as early as today European closing range. As discussed earlier this week 1108.xx Gold ,1.127x Euro, $43.6x in OIL are the levels to track, trade and reload accordingly.

Tracking very closely the opening for a chance to ride the early moves in Oil and Gold ... On the rest of the board, nothing to see until tomorrow, same levels, same trades, same all...

GL all for the Q3 legs ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,926
  • Sep 16, 2015 6:14am Sep 16, 2015 6:14am
Quoting sisse
► for now early fireworks with inflation numbers missing targets and NO HIKES look ready to roll tomorrow. NY can kickstart the move as early as today European closing range. As discussed earlier this week 1108.xx Gold ,1.127x Euro, $43.6x in OIL are the levels to track, trade and reload accordingly. Tracking very closely the opening for a chance to ride the early moves in Oil and Gold ... On the rest of the board, nothing to see until tomorrow, same levels, same trades, same all... GL all for the Q3 legs ... sisse
Hi Sisse, how do u evaluate the inflation - just a headline miss or real miss? It seems the odds of hike are lower now - pretty interesting reaction in gold - kind of a shy wave, which may become a monster tomorrow.

In any case, great u back and thousand thanks for the info in this crazy time! Keep it up
  • #136,927
  • Sep 16, 2015 6:29am Sep 16, 2015 6:29am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hi Sisse, how do u evaluate the inflation - just a headline miss or real miss? It seems the odds of hike are lower now - pretty interesting reaction in gold - kind of a shy wave, which may become a monster tomorrow. In any case, great u back and thousand thanks for the info in this crazy time! Keep it up
A simple miss but in the context of hikes tomorrow, a nervous FED reading it will be enough to trigger a early soft play (marekts wont bet the house on it ).

Self inflicted wound by the FED. Markets called the indecision and lack of north early this year and now FED is playing catch up .... it will get nasty until the FED takes action as markets will be always one step ahead making the FED policies more and more ineffective by the minute ...

We'll see ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,928
  • Sep 16, 2015 7:21am Sep 16, 2015 7:21am
I think we just wittnesed the best opps to preposition for the FED - cuz to play tomorrow it´s gonna be some seriously hard stuff. Too bad I managed to get into gold only hope you guys managed to grab sth too
  • #136,929
  • Sep 16, 2015 7:37am Sep 16, 2015 7:37am
Quoting sisse
► A rate hike will be a strong positive signal for the mid and long term that the economy is ready to walk alone but the short term impact of Bastards having to ride the pig without the FED handicap will take its tool at least until the end of the year triggering a zig zag play in US equities (down and up we go for a long term wave) and a direct play in dollar and gold (straight to the floor non stop)
The odds makers bet the super dovish Yellen FOMC will not have the stones to pull the trigger, but I bet they will. They'll raise the ffr no more than 25 bps & at the same time they'll drop down the dot plot. US equities will dip hard back down to /ES 1820 or lower, but I don't think a rebound will take until the end of the year. It will be a great time to have some dry powder, as US equities will trade at new highs in 2016. Best of luck to all & enjoy the show!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,930
  • Sep 16, 2015 8:33am Sep 16, 2015 8:33am
Quoting Pharm0r
..... call on oil sisse

Quoting sisse
For those following the OIL swing $43.6x [check] holding the energies close will unlock a 3rd attempt to crack $45.8x [check]and the leg to $49.9x. Also GOLD, with a strong contrarian opp ...fading the lows (109x.xx [check]holding the close till the FOMC for reference) with no rates for a quick rally to $1200.xx with extension to $1250.xx.

Superb moves as widely expected since Monday in Oil and GOLD. ​ NY triggered momentum with simple and direct rides. Pretty much all done until the FED.

Here, very happy clearing main news targets and leaving the rest for the FED play with a very wide and healthy buffer to dance tomorrow.

I hope you got some if you still around ....

Quoting The Fool
{quote} The odds makers bet the super dovish Yellen FOMC will not have the stones to pull the trigger, but I bet they will. They'll raise the ffr no more than 25 bps & at the same time they'll drop down the dot plot. US equities will dip hard back down to /ES 1820 or lower, but I don't think a rebound will take until the end of the year. It will be a great time to have some dry powder, as US equities will trade at new highs in 2016. Best of luck to all & enjoy the show!
Technically the map is cleared and screaming No Hikes but I agree with you. I still think the FED wont shoot themselves in the foot and do their proper job and hike instead of dancing at the bastards rhythm.... I am happily Lock & Loaded in euro, gold and oil with very good entries so I am not afraid to play the reverso if that is the case ....

Countdown timer starts with the european close...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,931
  • Sep 16, 2015 8:40am Sep 16, 2015 8:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} Superb moves as widely expected since Monday in Oil and GOLD. ​ NY triggered momentum with simple and direct rides. Pretty much all done until the FED. Here, very happy clearing main news targets and leaving the rest for the FED play with a very wide and healthy buffer to dance tomorrow. I hope you got some if you still around .... {quote} Technically the map is cleared and screaming No Hikes but I agree with you. I still think the FED wont shoot themselves in the foot and do their proper job and hike instead of dancing at the...
missed the 43.92 long I was looking for by the spread. never got a second chance

Good luck tomorrow
  • #136,932
  • Sep 16, 2015 12:07pm Sep 16, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting sisse
► "A rate hike ... triggering ... a direct play in dollar and gold (straight to the floor non stop)"

► "FED chickening out will have implications ... in gold and dollar it will trigger a sharp zigzag move (sharp up in both non stop and then down we go to the lows of the year non stop) on portfolios clearing dollar and gold..."
... sisse
Hi Sisse, have been following your posts and trying to understand, but the above two excerpts are totally contrary to what I thought I'd grasped up till now.

In the event of a rate hike I understood the dollar would strengthen and not drop to the floor, while in the event of the Fed chickening out I'd have expected the dollar to weaken and not go sharp up)

"GOLD and Dollar are no brainer trades with or without hikes as they will get the direct hit short term ..."

And if I haven't grasped the correct implications of a fed hike/no hike then of course I also wouldn't know what to understand from the above ..except alas that it's looking like I'm the "no-brainer" here

Any enlightenment from you or anyone else greatly appreciated and thanks everyone for sharing your insights.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #136,933
  • Edited 12:42pm Sep 16, 2015 12:32pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Hi Sisse, have been following your posts and trying to understand, but the above two excerpts are totally contrary to what I thought I'd grasped up till now. In the event of a rate hike I understood the dollar would strengthen and not drop to the floor, while in the event of the Fed chickening out I'd have expected the dollar to weaken and not go sharp up) "GOLD and Dollar are no brainer trades with or without hikes as they will get the direct hit short term ..." And if I haven't grasped the correct implications of a fed hike/no hike then...
Hi Commercial, I was thinking about the same stuff u do - but I would bet that when he talked about Dollar he meant Dollar on EUR/USD pair and not USDollarIndex, i.e. dollar itself. Than it makes sense - if u have hike =) dollar to the floor on EUR/USD, if no hike =) sharp up on dollar in EUR/USD = actually sharp up for EUR. At least thats how I understand it + it also makes sense with gold, i.e. hike = gold to the floor x no hike = sharp up. I think this is most likely the logic he meant/it works.

The other interesting thing is the part "sharp up in both non stop and then down we go to the lows of the year non stop"- would be great if Sisse could elaborate on this part more.

But I bet its gonna be more clear when Sisse posts more stuff tomorrow. Hopefully!!!
  • #136,934
  • Sep 16, 2015 1:49pm Sep 16, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Hi Sisse, have been following your posts and trying to understand, but the above two excerpts are totally contrary to what I thought I'd grasped up till now. In the event of a rate hike I understood the dollar would strengthen and not drop to the floor, while in the event of the Fed chickening out I'd have expected the dollar to weaken and not go sharp up «) "GOLD and Dollar are no brainer trades with or without hikes as they will get the direct hit short term ..." And if I haven't grasped the correct implications of a fed hike/no hike then...
You are absolutely right .... I made a mental typo mistake. I was thinking about the EURO but writing about the Dollar. .... I edited the mistake ... Dollar will shot down...

" ► FED chickening out will have implications for the real economy an it will trigger a easy but limited ride up short term in Equities on 0 interest rates for a couple of months but after retrace it will set us in a very noisy and extended chop zone for a couple of quarters. White in gold and dollar EURO [EDIT] it will trigger a sharp zigzag move (sharp up in both non stop and then down we go to the lows of the year non stop) on portfolios clearing dollar EURO [EDIT] and gold..."

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,935
  • Sep 16, 2015 3:15pm Sep 16, 2015 3:15pm
Just 20 hours til the greatest financial event of all time. After this Sept FOMC, everything changes, etc etc and so on ad nauseum....fuck I'm so tired of this bullshit. Nevertheless, it could be big. Show your trading prowess (aka, luck) by predicting where your favorite dog will be at the close of business this Friday. Fiber, gold, oil, the S&P, whatever. The wiener gets to gloat. I'm only riding SPY and VXX trades, so here goes.....the Fed will deliver the first ffr hike in a million years tomorrow at 2PM NY time. US equities will tank and VXX will spike, and there'll be massive follow through on Friday.

SPY will finish the week at $189.25 and VXX will be at $27.67. (Looks so totally wrong, really only for that reason does it have a chance.....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,936
  • Sep 16, 2015 4:02pm Sep 16, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} .... I was thinking about the EURO but writing about the Dollar. .... I edited the mistake ...
Phew! Appreciate that Sisse, thanks also Chester you were spot on!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #136,937
  • Sep 17, 2015 1:14am Sep 17, 2015 1:14am
....and we are finally here. FED rates in play in nearly 7 years (that's an eternity at 0 interest rates !!! under any record).

Markets in no man's land until the announcement.

As usual (especially today) all micro and short term levels RAISED. Only macro and fundamental levels in play until the W close (we have large options expiration too and futures rollovers ...uff).

Actual initial knee jerk reaction flows will be impossible to realistically trade during the announcement. If you are not already in with a good entry (whatever the side) better sit aside and let the markets find its foot first.... For the short term reaction moves, plays will extend as late as the M/Q roll before smoothing the waves till years end for the mid term legs.

► Two simple scenario in play. Hikes or not Hikes each with a mild and strong version:

Hawkish ⇔ Dovish

⇒⇒ Real Sep Hike >= 0.25 ........ ⇒⇒ Soft Sep Hike < 0.15 ........ ⇒⇒ Confused FED ........ ⇒⇒ No Hike Sep/Hawkish FED ........ ⇒⇒ No Hikes / Dovish FED

► From the fundamental side:

more probable scenario ⇔ less probable scenario

⇒ Kicking the can but with a strong signal that hikes DEC is done deal will please most of the bastards but it will leave a dark cloud over the FED inability to take action and control monetary policy. Slightly positive signal for the economy but heavily dependant on any tiny wind on markets. Expecting an orderly & limited rally in equites and gold and a steeper selloff in dollar.


⇒ Fed will get rid of the hot potato and please both sides regaining the upper hand in terms of monetary policy. Positive signal in the short and mid term. We'll have to wait for the real deal (real hike) at the end of year. Watch out short term for equites and dollar selling off but finding strong support at the lows to form a base for a zigzag move. ​


⇒ A confused FED will trigger more volatility and risk off across the board leaving the markets in full control. Negative signal for the economy short term. Markets wont like this one. Expecting volatility to increase in the upcoming weeks with sharp and noisy swings to both sides in all markets ​


⇒ Economy ready to walk alone. Strong positive signal for the mid and long term. Get ready for a extended long term rally (buy and hold) as soon as FED finish normalising rates (+/- post US Elections / Q1 2017). Watch out short term for equities and gold taking a hit in the short term and dollar flying high

​

⇒ Bastards will love this option. Even the more QE camp will have a feast on the media .... very bad signal for the economy in the mid and long term. More importantly FED will completely lose the ability to offset any major shock in the next 6 months. Fingers cross China doesn't collapse or else. Expecting short term sharp rallies in Equities and gold and deep sell off in dollar.


► From a technical and trading side: ... TBC...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,938
  • Edited 4:44am Sep 17, 2015 1:46am | Edited 4:44am
Levels all lined up and counting on explosive volatility to bring them into play.

Conservative pre-emptive selloff in bonds from the very risk averse players so nothing much to see there.

All equities CFD's I'm actively tracking are holding or relatively holding above last years highs.

However, US equities tell a different story technically and they're obviously more directly exposed by a potential FED play or non-play today too. 1995 (SPX.) is the only level to watch but played around the level fading whoever's left carrying the can there. So far only a break-back of 1960 with a hawkish FED is technically on the cards.

Also tracking (not actively trading.) commodities. Gold and oil look tired at the lows. I'd prefer a quarterly resolution at these levels before a move up in the coming months taking back 1172 in gold and 48 in oil but we're more likely to see how they play out with extreme volatility before this month or even week is over.

I'm bearish on the pair. Even with a relatively dovish FED I think the R/R is skewed toward the bears. Tracking 1.1466 very closely with a dovish FED otherwise it's tight and uninteresting for me. All eyes on 1.097 in the coming days if a hawkish FED plays out and I miss my entries. I'll gauge the action in between in the coming days.

Initial signs and hints overall are for a dovish non-hike FED and I don't disagree at this stage knowing the FED; coupled with the crazy events over the few weeks. This should be interesting. Over to you Mrs.Yellen.
  • #136,939
  • Sep 17, 2015 3:07am Sep 17, 2015 3:07am
..and that was it for the European session.

Lots of action expected later and lots of unaware soft hands will get wiped out in the next few days as the next legs will short-circuit short term indicator based traders, that have been trading the v. conformable FX ranges during the summer.

► From a Technical side and for trading: (cheatsheet)

Here a quick cheatsheet with key technical levels and flows. All levels detailed are in play for the FED decision short term swings. Everything in between the levels is just thin air during the FED initial reaction...

Floor ⇔ Flip ⇔ Top

GOLD

$975.xx | $1020.xx (strong) | $1075.xx (momentum) | $1108.xx ...|Actual|... $1128.xx (momentum) | $1190.xx (strong) | $1235.xx


OIL

$25.6x | $36.2x (momentum) | $40.5x | $43.6x (momentum) ...|Actual|... $47.2x (strong) | $49.9x


S&P

$1740.xx (Steel Support) | $1820.xx (very strong) | $1940.xx (momentum) | $1985.xx ...|Actual|... $2021.xx(soft) | $2070.xx


Euro

$1.057x | $1.081x (momentum) | $1,091x (strong) | $1.108x | $1.127x (momentum) ...|Actual|... $1.147x (soft) | $1.184x (very strong)]



Not much to see till the NY opening range as Europe and the rest of the world will stay sidelined in the backside until the FED roll the dice.... here not much to do either at these levels so same trades, same all until later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,940
  • Sep 17, 2015 4:55am Sep 17, 2015 4:55am
Quoting sisse
..and that was it for the European session. Lots of action expected later and lots of unaware soft hands will get wiped out in the next few days as the next legs will short-circuit short term indicator based traders, that have been trading the v. conformable FX ranges during the summer. ► From a Technical side and for trading: (cheatsheet) Here a quick cheatsheet with key technical levels and flows. All levels detailed are in play for the FED decision short term swings. Everything in between the levels is just thin air during the FED initial...
Euro : (floor : 1.02xxxx ..... flip : 1.14xxx ...... top : 1.20xxx)
Re-Incarnated
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