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  • #1,025,781
  • Sep 14, 2015 11:50am Sep 14, 2015 11:50am
I think EU is forming a bearish pennant.

The spike to 1.17 3 weeks ago seems to be a fake out. Now market returned to the top of the pennant and ready to go down.

The timing of this scenario couldn't be better, as we are in the big FOMC whacky smacky rate decision once-in-a-decade week and that could give EU a killing blow and finally make those parity callers happy.
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  • #1,025,782
  • Sep 14, 2015 11:51am Sep 14, 2015 11:51am
captn obvious.
follow the flow
  • #1,025,783
  • Sep 14, 2015 11:54am Sep 14, 2015 11:54am
Quoting Atihun
captn obvious.
New avatar for you

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  • #1,025,784
  • Sep 14, 2015 11:57am Sep 14, 2015 11:57am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} New avatar for you {image}
only if you change yours too
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follow the flow
  • #1,025,785
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:01pm Sep 14, 2015 12:01pm
Quoting Atihun
{quote} only if you change yours too {image}
done
  • #1,025,786
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:02pm Sep 14, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} Sells closed +77 nice start of the week. 1st buy @136.25
close all buys -43 pips losses.
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Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,025,787
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:02pm Sep 14, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} done
ok
follow the flow
  • #1,025,788
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:04pm Sep 14, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} close all buys -43 pips losses. {image}
135.xx = buyer
  • #1,025,789
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:04pm Sep 14, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} close all buys -43 pips losses. {image}
still runing EU longs ?
  • #1,025,790
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:04pm Sep 14, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} close all buys -43 pips losses. {image}
Small losses, u still have 30pips profits

Andrew
  • #1,025,791
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:12pm Sep 14, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 135.xx = buyer
I short EJ now
Quoting edyraper
{quote} still runing EU longs ?
Yes still keep EU longs
Quoting dna9179
{quote} Small losses, u still have 30pips profits Andrew
yes still net 30 pips not bad
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,025,792
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:14pm Sep 14, 2015 12:14pm
Tmr is risk for eu, german zew... it might just ride it downwards as sentiment for eur has lost.. jpy, aud n gbp appears to be stronger compare to euro
  • #1,025,793
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:19pm Sep 14, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} still runing EU longs ?
My EU long positions
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Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,025,794
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:20pm Sep 14, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} I short EJ now
I won't short from current level
  • #1,025,795
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:23pm Sep 14, 2015 12:23pm
Obviously a big week this week. I'm still looking at EU longs, expect to buy more on dips. I can squint my eyes & draw targets that hit 1.18 this week & then 1.22/23 later this year, but I'm no good at predicting the future.

Today I'm looking for a continuation of this last 2 hrs rise in EU starting at 1.1283 on up to 1.1328-38 & then another 90-100 pips down to 1.1230/40ish region during Asia/early Europe on Tuesday sessions. Perhaps some range then before a pre-FOMC spike to 1.18 would be my preference (of course, not till I see it's about to happen & load up a bit more).

By the way, bonds are favoring EU longs now, too.
defense wins championships
  • #1,025,796
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:25pm Sep 14, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I won't short from current level
Yes I know you. I'm in testing mode & just stick to the rules of the system
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,025,797
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:29pm Sep 14, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting seemoore
Obviously a big week this week. I'm still looking at EU longs, expect to buy more on dips. I can squint my eyes & draw targets that hit 1.18 this week & then 1.22/23 later this year, but I'm no good at predicting the future. Today I'm looking for a continuation of this last 2 hrs rise in EU starting at 1.1283 on up to 1.1328-38 & then another 90-100 pips down to 1.1230/40ish region during Asia/early Europe on Tuesday sessions. Perhaps some range then before a pre-FOMC spike to 1.18 would be my preference (of course, not till I see it's about to...
Rate hike = equities up or down

Rate unchanged = equities up or down

Both scenarios above affecting EU in what way to 1.18
  • #1,025,798
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:45pm Sep 14, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Rate hike = equities up or down Rate unchanged = equities up or down Both scenarios above affecting EU in what way to 1.18
Just my guess.

Rate hike = equities down to around 1837, lower monthly BB. then prob more down after small bounce.
EU up due to risk off, margin calls, etc.

Rate unchanged = equities spike up, then more down. Don't know if down will be fast or slow. If unchanged (which is not my leaning as of today), then expect very hawkish press conference, well, hawkish for Yellen, so imagine a mean sparrow.
EU up due to perceived dovish Fed.

Yes, I have EU up both ways. I still can't grasp why any scenario will result in EU going down with this backdrop (equities falling, bonds rising).


Both get EU to 1.18. Rate unchanged prob gets it to the 1.22/23 area in Oct/Nov? I didn't check trend speed on that yet. Will do next weekend if get to 1.18 already.
defense wins championships
  • #1,025,799
  • Sep 14, 2015 12:49pm Sep 14, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Rate hike = equities up or down Rate unchanged = equities up or down Both scenarios above affecting EU in what way to 1.18
Depends upon US$ reaction to hike/no hike.

US$ up=equities down
US$ down=equities up

So depends upon if hike is priced into US$ already.
Equities are more concerned with affect of strong US$ on earnings & not the impact on economy.
My guess is for a .25% hike but no big rally in US$.

Just my unprofessional opinion.
  • #1,025,800
  • Sep 14, 2015 1:00pm Sep 14, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Just my guess. Rate hike = equities down to around 1837, lower monthly BB. then prob more down after small bounce. EU up due to risk off, margin calls, etc. Rate unchanged = equities spike up, then more down. Don't know if down will be fast or slow. If unchanged (which is not my leaning as of today), then expect very hawkish press conference, well, hawkish for Yellen, so imagine a mean sparrow. EU up due to perceived dovish Fed. Yes, I have EU up both ways. I still can't grasp why any scenario will result in EU...
What's BB


Quoting srt
{quote} Depends upon US$ reaction to hike/no hike. US$ up=equities down US$ down=equities up So depends upon if hike is priced into US$ already. Equities are more concerned with affect of strong US$ on earnings & not the impact on economy. My guess is for a .25% hike but no big rally in US$. Just my unprofessional opinion.
You mean corporate earnings?
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