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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #57,901
  • Sep 12, 2015 12:44pm Sep 12, 2015 12:44pm
Haha, yes, we are all waiting.
  • #57,902
  • Sep 13, 2015 8:07am Sep 13, 2015 8:07am
Quoting edyraper
sitting on my pending buy limits from 117.90 till 117.12 nothing to trade here in the middle . TP targets are 119.94 ( will out below 115.47 ) using 1:1 leverage*
changed my plan
will cancell all pending on UJ wait and see is a strategy
  • #57,903
  • Edited 6:23pm Sep 13, 2015 4:05pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting Exodus
Guys, when the FOMC does not increase the US rate next week ... which ways will UJ move?
Hey, I was out of town with some clients this weekend....

Keep it simple... don't over think this because of 3 factors:

1. Currently, the market volatility is largely based on HYPE.

2. It is a FACT that China has MAJOR issues and are POSSIBLY giving out falsified info to keep their Stock Market from diving. (They've been propping it up since December of 2014)

3. Japan has had a MAJOR Natural Disaster.

If the US increases rates it will strengthen the US dollar.

If the US keeps rates the same, the HYPE from the market would already have kept the Volatility high and the People that are worried will try to buy into MORE Hype about when they will increase rates.

Just my opinion,
They want the volatility because it would fluctuate and the commercial side WILL TAKE its Profit and meet its Quotas off of pushing stops BOTH ways.

Although,
An unexpected issue that was not here last week was Japans Natural Disaster...

And...
I mostly trade GBP/JPY because of volatility...
(I don't recommend it unless you understand the world issues, as I travel a lot and Always say to my clients DONT invest in what you DONT fully Understand)

Also look at the VIX...
Again, Just my opinion:

1. Its looks as if it might take a Jolt down to around the 19 ---> 15-16 Range...

2. If that happens, then you'll see the articles written about everything being ok, but that will be your trigger that its NOT ok...

3. Leading to better chances Rates move at that point in time because of Unexpected News and the higher risk of the US Stock Market taking its next big plunge.
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  • #57,904
  • Sep 13, 2015 9:18pm Sep 13, 2015 9:18pm
Japan has had a natural disaster for the past 25 years .... called deflation.

Nothing new there.
  • #57,905
  • Sep 13, 2015 9:42pm Sep 13, 2015 9:42pm
Quoting SunTrader
Japan has had a natural disaster for the past 25 years .... called deflation. Nothing new there.
Although its a minor point... it is still an issue to watch...

At the moment there is No known issue with their Power Plants, but...

Japan recently started back up their Reactors in the same vicinity the main flooding took place, and...

I hope this does not lead to a Reactor issue after the tide clears... because it would create more unsolved problems for the country.
  • #57,906
  • Sep 13, 2015 10:15pm Sep 13, 2015 10:15pm
Means very little compared to their overall long term economic malaise.

It doesn't help but there are far bigger issues at play.
  • #57,907
  • Edited 10:48pm Sep 13, 2015 10:37pm | Edited 10:48pm
Quoting SunTrader
Means very little compared to their overall long term economic malaise. It doesn't help but there are far bigger issues at play.
Good point!

Also, due to Tectonic plate shifts, natural disasters on the Pacific Rim tend to happen around the same time, hopefully not leading to Earthquakes or Volcanic issues...

Just my opinion,
Figured the ripple affect of this issue over the weekend could cause more volatility and uncertainty within their country, or lead to them making decisions sooner than later.
  • #57,908
  • Sep 14, 2015 2:58am Sep 14, 2015 2:58am
Quoting dCtrader15
{quote} Although its a minor point... it is still an issue to watch... At the moment there is No known issue with their Power Plants, but... Japan recently started back up their Reactors in the same vicinity the main flooding took place, and... I hope this does not lead to a Reactor issue after the tide clears... because it would create more unsolved problems for the country.
BTW thanks for your expansive reply above to my question.

AFAIK the only power plant with issues is at Fukushima and they haven't turned that plant back on. In fact they don't have anything there which can be 'turned on'.

It is mildly surprising that Nippon govt has gone against its public's opinion and re-started nuclear power (which takes about a week to get a plant back online). The surprise is because gas power is cheap at the moment. However weigh this against the fact that Japan has suffered major earthquake events ever since there were islands to call Japan. Therefore the extensive use of nuclear power is not a new threat.

So here are some extra factors that may have impinged on the decision. The apparent switch to gas powered electricity may have put a pressure on Japanese government debt ownership in that, at present, most of it is owned by the Japanese. If the proportion of debt owned by foreigners increases that may represent a threat to the stability of their currency in a similar fashion to the recent experiences of the Greeks.

Also a major switch to gas or oil power will cause further weakening on the Yen due to balance of trade pressures. That scenario cedes some control of the exchange rate to external market forces and may bring about the unhealthy situation of having to support their currency value - which is very difficult.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #57,909
  • Sep 14, 2015 3:28am Sep 14, 2015 3:28am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} BTW thanks for your expansive reply above to my question. AFAIK the only power plant with issues is at Fukushima and they haven't turned that plant back on. In fact they don't have anything there which can be 'turned on'. It is mildly surprising that Nippon govt has gone against its public's opinion and re-started nuclear power (which takes about a week to get a plant back online). The surprise is because gas power is cheap at the moment. However weigh this against the fact that Japan has suffered major earthquake events ever since there...
I really believed the Reactors were turned back on BUT either way Good View Point and Reasoning

The third factor was the Japanese offset to the USD/JPY pair through a fundamental approach of the countries further issues based off unexpected news since last week.
  • #57,910
  • Sep 14, 2015 3:32am Sep 14, 2015 3:32am
I think I must have missed something that happened last week.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #57,911
  • Sep 14, 2015 5:10am Sep 14, 2015 5:10am
120.94 is a good number. Hoping to go lower still to increase the pip count towards 120.94.

But current 120.19 not a bad place to risk a small long.
You can be anything you want to be
  • #57,912
  • Sep 14, 2015 5:27am Sep 14, 2015 5:27am
Quoting badblood
120.94 is a good number. Hoping to go lower still to increase the pip count towards 120.94. But current 120.19 not a bad place to risk a small long.

I'm expect to reach around 120,maybe then go north.Will see.
  • #57,913
  • Sep 14, 2015 8:59am Sep 14, 2015 8:59am
Quoting gstup
{quote} I'm expect to reach around 120,maybe then go north.Will see.

And here we are.I'm out.
  • #57,914
  • Sep 14, 2015 7:33pm Sep 14, 2015 7:33pm
Updated the Fib Fan to pin point the pair a bit more...

The 50Fib seems to be a good Resistance even though its sitting right above the 100sma...
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  • #57,915
  • Sep 14, 2015 8:10pm Sep 14, 2015 8:10pm
H1 short term broke through cleanly nearest resistance but now stalled at the next one:
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  • #57,916
  • Sep 14, 2015 8:37pm Sep 14, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting SunTrader
H1 short term broke through cleanly nearest resistance but now stalled at the next one: {image}
Right on... 1Hr. stalled at my 50Fib... lets see if it can hold
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  • #57,917
  • Sep 15, 2015 12:24am Sep 15, 2015 12:24am
Good Morning !

Today's S/R levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
USDJPY
GOLD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post8488811

EURO PINK
CABLE PINK
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #57,918
  • Sep 15, 2015 1:31am Sep 15, 2015 1:31am
Quoting HareshBM
USDJPY clearly headed towards its next major resistance near 120.90 level, also coinciding with 200-day SMA. Would be inclined to initiate fresh short positions near that key resistance area. {image}
Exactly the way I was expecting... USDJPY fails to sustain above 121.00 mark and has subsequent dropped below 120.00 mark.
Now seems to extend the reversal towards testing 119.10 support area.
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  • #57,919
  • Sep 15, 2015 2:03am Sep 15, 2015 2:03am
Bouncing off the 38.2Fib Fan...

Might trend back to 120...
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  • #57,920
  • Sep 15, 2015 6:22am Sep 15, 2015 6:22am
Loan Disbursement under the Fund-Provisioning Measure to Stimulate Bank Lending (September 2015)
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcement...rel150915a.pdf

more investments and economic growth soon (YEN will go down).
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