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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #11,621
  • Sep 9, 2015 4:23am Sep 9, 2015 4:23am
Fibo thoughts:
I want to share some insights on how i use the .382 Fibo as support in a downtrend (continuation confirmation if broken) and as a support in uptrend (continuation confirmation if broken).
Let's say we have the price @ "X", then the price falls to "Y", then it retraces exactly .618 @ price "Z" (as it can be seen in the picture below) In this case math dictates that Fibo .382 (X-Y) = Fibo .382 (Y-Z) This gives us a confluence zone that can act as S/R as described above - breaking the .382 gives us confirmation of continuation of the prevailing trend, while the break of .618 gives us confirmation of continuation of the counter trend.
For those who want to check the math, here it is:
Z = Y+(X-Y)0.618
Fibo .382 (X-Y) =Y+(X-Y)0.382
Fibo .382 (Y-Z) = Z-(Z-Y)0.382
substitute Z in and it should solve itself out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_M5.png Size: 33 KB

with all being said, in the image above, i'm looking for a break of the 0.382 in EUR to go long DAX
hope it helps,
  • #11,622
  • Sep 9, 2015 4:24am Sep 9, 2015 4:24am
Divergence on 30m chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30 Rolling Daily.png Size: 45 KB
  • #11,623
  • Sep 9, 2015 5:48am Sep 9, 2015 5:48am
Nikkei in Japan finished up today almost 8%. Would like to short that one next time we peak and volatility comes back.
  • #11,624
  • Sep 9, 2015 6:29am Sep 9, 2015 6:29am
KISS - a classic DeltaOne set up, the 50% retrace
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,625
  • Sep 9, 2015 6:42am Sep 9, 2015 6:42am
soporific side
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax 09-09-15.png Size: 56 KB
  • #11,626
  • Edited 7:50am Sep 9, 2015 7:30am | Edited 7:50am
Dax and Dow charts looking identical now - can't see how either can push much higher from here, Dow 30m chart especially thick with bearish candles. looks to me like we'll fall before we go higher, if we go higher, but we are still well supported a bit further down from 314 - 240 on the Dax

ps- just closing in on this range atm, I think we can go anywhere from 500 to 400 this afternoon, if we go anywhere at all!
  • #11,627
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:10am Sep 9, 2015 8:10am
Quoting cat
Dax and Dow charts looking identical now - can't see how either can push much higher from here, Dow 30m chart especially thick with bearish candles. looks to me like we'll fall before we go higher, if we go higher, but we are still well supported a bit further down from 314 - 240 on the Dax ps- just closing in on this range atm, I think we can go anywhere from 500 to 400 this afternoon, if we go anywhere at all!

Yep, sit on hands time - out in my garden - until NYSE Open and then the JOLTS Job Opening half an hour later...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,628
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:15am Sep 9, 2015 8:15am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Yep, sit on hands time - out in my garden - until NYSE Open and then the JOLTS Job Opening half an hour later...
Sounds like you're taking it way too easy down there in sunny Spain
  • #11,629
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:23am Sep 9, 2015 8:23am
I reckon quite a few people got sucked into trying a long when they saw that last hourly candle, but there's just way too much resistance atm on the medium time frames ( 10m, 30m )
  • #11,630
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:35am Sep 9, 2015 8:35am
Quoting cat
I reckon quite a few people got sucked into trying a long when they saw that last hourly candle, but there's just way too much resistance atm on the medium time frames ( 10m, 30m )
IMO its not been worth trading since 9am gmt this morning.

Knowing when NOT to trade is a big part of making - and keeping - money.. I remove temptation by moving away from my screen. Now that the NYSE is open I'm back taking a look...

PS Right now, R1 is holding as support....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,631
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:45am Sep 9, 2015 8:45am
[quote=Islander;8480189]{quote} Knowing when NOT to trade is a big part of making - and keeping - money..

Very true, but I prefer ' Knowing WHEN to trade ' - keeps you on a positive keel
  • #11,632
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:47am Sep 9, 2015 8:47am
The NYSE open sometimes gives a false candle, I'm not sure the downtrend will continue much beyond 16:00 when the dust settles. Though a gentle slope has been going on since 15:00, so who knows.

In any case, compared to other EU indices, the DAX has indeed been completely flat today. The JOLTS probably has no significant impact to gauge direction, they disregarded it last time as well.
  • #11,633
  • Sep 9, 2015 9:36am Sep 9, 2015 9:36am
First line of support just reached @ 338....next will be the DP if this can't hold it. ( I've got two -313 and 260 - I usually go with the latter one )
  • #11,634
  • Sep 9, 2015 10:02am Sep 9, 2015 10:02am
No pussyfooting around once Wall St opened was there? - they knew exactly what they wanted to do, take it up a few pips and then sell the pants off it!
  • #11,635
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:55pm Sep 9, 2015 12:55pm
Sideway today. At least I haven't got trapped.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #11,636
  • Sep 9, 2015 1:05pm Sep 9, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting Forexcube
DAX, Short @ 10'312
#11'605

Exit @ 10'242, +70
  • #11,637
  • Edited Sep 10, 2015 1:47am Sep 9, 2015 9:59pm | Edited Sep 10, 2015 1:47am
Quoting PariCovek
The Dax is very much moving like it did at the start of the year, just stepping higher and higher with no decent pullbacks today (aside from Frankfurt initial open). I still think the Dax will move between the 1x1 Gann Fan and 1x2 Gann Fan as per attached, so I think the upside is limited to around 10,500 over the next couple of days, but by the end of this calendar year we could be close to 11300 again. Let's hope it just gradually moves up each day, makes it easier to take those ticks every morning {image}
Gann Fan 1x1 line upper boundary was 10545 (as per previous post), and the 50% Fibonacci on the swing high/low was 10500 (as below), so I knew yesterday we would get close to this range and start heading down. Stupidly I didnt follow my own advice, and now I sit with the some hedged trades and waiting for an interim low and rebound to clear the difference.

My guess is as good as anyone for the interim low, but I wouldnt be surprised if we fall somewhere around 9800 and 10000 before the next wave up. We are in uptrend, so perhaps 10120 was also the spot (in after hours overnight - see second image) where it touched the current uptrend line. However, with the upcoming rate decision in the US, I see potential downside for the next couple of days.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 249 KB
  • #11,638
  • Sep 10, 2015 12:11am Sep 10, 2015 12:11am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Gann Fan 1x1 line upper boundary was 10545 (as per previous post), and the 50% Fibonacci on the swing high/low was 10500 (as below), so I knew yesterday we would get close to this range and start heading down. Stupidly I didnt follow my own advice, and now I sit with the some hedged trades and waiting for an interim low and rebound to clear the difference. My guess is as good as anyone for the interim low, but I wouldnt be surprised if we fall somewhere around 9800 and 10000 before the next wave up. We are in uptrend, so perhaps 10053 could...
First image shows my strategies going forward to have a short bias near 1x1 and long bias near 1x2. 1x1.5 line is the longer term velocity projected. Green dots were upper limit for yesterday and 31 December 2015 (end of year).

Longer term Gann Fan (second image) shows the last 3 boom cycles falling between 1x1 and 1x2 eventually and tracking the 1x1.5 as the average rate of velocity; until there is a clear break of the 1x2 line (boom cycle end).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAXX-1C.png Size: 273 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAXX-1A.png Size: 393 KB
  • #11,639
  • Sep 10, 2015 12:54am Sep 10, 2015 12:54am
the graph is an H1, the red Fibo lines (.5 & .618) are Oct. 2014 lows and April 2015 highs. want to see if trendline is respected; if .618 is taken out, strong bearish bias
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX_H1.png Size: 38 KB


best,
  • #11,640
  • Sep 10, 2015 1:22am Sep 10, 2015 1:22am
Weekly seems indifferent, monthly also & daily could go up or down.
Excellent aspects for some Hedging ones.

DAX, Long @ 10'205 (5x)
DAX, Short @ 10'205 (5x)

I think that the DAX is ranging around +/-200-500

...& maybe I'll execute some scalping trades here and there.
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