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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,361
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:04am Sep 8, 2015 2:04am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,362
  • Sep 8, 2015 2:28am Sep 8, 2015 2:28am
scalping
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,363
  • Sep 8, 2015 6:37pm Sep 8, 2015 6:37pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,364
  • Sep 8, 2015 7:05pm Sep 8, 2015 7:05pm
scalping
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  • #1,365
  • Sep 9, 2015 1:36am Sep 9, 2015 1:36am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,366
  • Sep 9, 2015 3:11am Sep 9, 2015 3:11am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Despite the pessimism in relation to the September increase, calendars forecasts have put higher interest rates. Interesting facts.

The probability of a rate hike in September decreased.

According to recent data NFP, the US unemployment rate is 5.1%, the lowest since May 2008. Some Fed officials have dubbed the latest report "positive", but on the other end of the scale "to increase / not to raise" is the low level of inflation.
Although the market has a belief that the desired increase in prices may not be mandatory, and not short-term factor affecting the decision FOMC, however, this card is not yet "Indoor".
Not Covered, even in such a range of labor market data published on Friday, September 4:

NonFarm Payrolls 173K against 217K
Unemployment Rate 5,1% against 5,2%
Average Hourly Earnings 0,3% against 0,2%
NonFarm Payrolls Revised 245K against 215K
Prior Average Hourly Earnings YoY revised from 2.1% to 2.2%

And let's not forget that, before Janet Yellen was the head of the Fed, she stayed in the camp "doves", ie that group FOMC, which differs preference soft and slow monetary policy, given that it is not the labor market, we still united, and $ 40 per barrel is a real figure, China remains a problem, and the reduction in commodity prices may indicate the presence of global threat reduction.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,367
  • Sep 9, 2015 3:25am Sep 9, 2015 3:25am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

CA overnight rate BC

It did not expect the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again, as it was recently on July 15, 2015, which was the second iteration of the Bank in 2015, and it looks like it's enough. Although the issue of commodity prices, the Canadian economy has shown strong gains, which, together with low interest rates is enough for BC, which apparently went to the standby effect of their actions, and that there was the pause.
Interesting for us, in terms of the information field may be accompanying notes issued in the form of protocols, they can have a major impact and cause volatility at the time of release.
Nevertheless, the odds are always saved as "for" and "against", it is not recommended to skip such events.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,368
  • Sep 9, 2015 4:12am Sep 9, 2015 4:12am
No clear direction for me, i scalped some pips after new comes out
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  • #1,369
  • Sep 9, 2015 5:19am Sep 9, 2015 5:19am
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  • #1,370
  • Sep 9, 2015 7:12am Sep 9, 2015 7:12am
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  • #1,371
  • Edited 7:43am Sep 9, 2015 7:25am | Edited 7:43am
Thursday
00:00
09/10/15
NZ Interest
(NZ Official Cash Rate), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________


The interest rate will be reduced from 3.00% to 2.75% - as analysts, and those are the official forecasts. If this does not happen, we will have a trading signal, and therefore the strengthening of the NZD against the USD, but there is another option.
In July 2014 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has completed a series of interest rate increases, and in June 2015. The regulator started with a completely different story - the first time the interest rate was reduced from 3.5% to 3.25%; July interest rate is reduced by 0.25% to 3%.
Moreover, Bloomberg hopes not only to reduce the rate of the current session in September, but relies on its further decline in October, so that the interest rate should reach 2.5% at the end of the year.
The sharp drop in commodity prices, as well as worried China may well give us one more likely to get the trading volatility - there is a chance that the RBNZ may reduce the interest rate by 0.5 to 2.5%. And while the Fed turns the nose and inflationary pressures in the country is minimal - a very real chance.
Technically, pay attention to the probability of absence of quotations in your terminal at this time (00:00 "forex" goes to reboot before the new trading day).

Thursday
4:30
09/10/15
AU number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
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Conflict. Delay. In fact - a strong statement, but it has its drawbacks as a technology of its release.
On Tuesday, the deputy head of the RBA made by Frederick Loewe, and if earlier Lowe afraid of getting "boom expenditures" because of low interest rates and low AUD, now Philip has the opposite opinion: "it is not enough for long-term growth of spending." The deputy head of the RBA recognizes that external data apart from China are mainly positive.
If the Fed will resist steadily increase in US interest rates later this year, probably we can expect a further decline in interest rates RBA, which this year has already been lowered twice from 2.5% to 2.0% (0.25% per iteration).


Thursday
10:30
09/10/15
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Only those who understand the spread of the pair.

Thursday
11:00
09/10/15
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Only those who understand the spread of the pair.

Thursday
14:00
09/10/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
___________________________________________________________________________________________

For the second edition (and get used to it) which, together with the decision on interest rates, we also present the structure of voting, namely the information on how many members of the MPC voted 9 "for" or "against" over / under bets.
The last release of the hawks in the camp there was one "who wants" to raise interest rates, the structure appears to us in the form: 1-0-8 (raise / lower / abstention), as expected it turned out to be unchanged "Ruby to-shoulder McCafferty, that is not surprising for the markets and can hardly be taken as the information "very seriously." In addition, the forecast was 2-0-7, which overturned the GBP in the first minutes after the receipt of the information.
Analysts do not believe that to join McCafferty yet a member of MPC purpose of voting "for" an immediate boost, and it appears in the current market conjecture - this situation is quite logical, but always retained a certain intrigue.
So David Miles was eliminated from the MPC, and in its place on September 1, came "newcomer Gertjan Vlieghe, he is unlikely to "zaskachet" with his sword unsheathed, but still ...
Despite the fact that the UK annual inflation remained at 0.1% (with a target of 2%), economists polled by Reuters believe (median value), which is the first increase in interest rates can be expected in the first quarter of 2016. Not fit in with market expectations.
Technically release will excite as follows:
- The interest rate and APF program remain unchanged.
- The market in the event of changes in the voting structure affects the interest rate.
- The last point puts the protocol, it is in text format, and markets need some time to assess the prospects, it is ordained.
In the trade, we will use as a voting structure and levels of rates and APF

Thursday
17:30
09/10/15
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,372
  • Sep 9, 2015 8:08am Sep 9, 2015 8:08am
Quoting vvFish
scalping {image}
Hi vvFish

I'm new to FF.

Saw #Post 1,365. Interested to know how you do the 1 Min scalping
  • #1,373
  • Sep 9, 2015 9:32am Sep 9, 2015 9:32am
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  • #1,374
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:00pm Sep 9, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting mathlo
{quote} Hi vvFish I'm new to FF. Saw #Post 1,365. Interested to know how you do the 1 Min scalping
I do it with a "pencil and photoshop"..... I could not help but answer this question with humor.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,375
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:03pm Sep 9, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting mathlo
{quote} Hi vvFish I'm new to FF. Saw #Post 1,365. Interested to know how you do the 1 Min scalping
Look where that theme even has a video that will give you the answer.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,376
  • Sep 9, 2015 12:05pm Sep 9, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting Valentinik87
{image}
well my friend.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,377
  • Sep 9, 2015 2:06pm Sep 9, 2015 2:06pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,378
  • Sep 9, 2015 2:42pm Sep 9, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting vvFish
{image}{image}
today my internet connection was bad, late entry but green pips anyway
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  • #1,379
  • Sep 10, 2015 1:47am Sep 10, 2015 1:47am
Hello All i think EA will trade better ...
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  • #1,380
  • Sep 10, 2015 4:05am Sep 10, 2015 4:05am
Thanks God +++++
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