Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
2015 Week 36 - Trade Summary:
3 trades in total:
- 0 Wins
- 1 BE
- 2 Losses
Well I never enjoy posting these summaries after a bad week, but it's useful to get everyones feedback, and also spend some time studying why trades might have gone wrong in order to develop my trade-plan. It was never going to be an easy week to trade this time round, as we entered September on Tuesday and of course, had the formidable NFP releases at the end of the week. Unfortunately, I missed some nice opportunities due to work commitments and equally made some basic errors in the trades that I took. I also picked the wrong week to revert from 1% risk per trade back up to 2% which I saw more success with previously. Oh well, nothing that can't be made back over time. 2 small losses and a break-even trade left me with -4% on the account this week.
Monday: I got to my charts at FO and saw what looked to be a strong setup. I usually wait for LO but have recently studied FO entries under specific conditions. I was looking for a pure TMS cross entry (with one closed setup candle and TDI green crossed over red) as well PA confirmation, and no nearby S/R. It ticked all three boxes with FO-1 closing red (setup candle) as a BEUB (PA confirmation) and no nearby S/R (50 pips to 200ema). The fatal error in this case was waiting for a break of FO-1 before entering. I've noticed that the FO candle rarely makes a big move without re-testing its open price at some point. For this reason FO entries must be immediately upon the candle opening and even then it can be tricky with spread. As it happens, the move I was expecting didn't really go anywhere at all but my poor entry meant I couldn't even get out at BE. London was fairly dead but there was a strong setup a few hours later as LO+3 re-tested the LO low and then formed a nice bullish TMS setup good for 100 pips. Unfortunately, I was away from my PC at this time so missed it...Doh! (-25, -2%)
Tuesday: The major AUD news in the hours leading up to London set a large pin-bar which confirmed an important level for later in the week. From there Tuesday was plain-sailing with a really nice bullish trend throughout the whole day. Unfortunately I was unable to even open my charts all day which meant I missed out on this one. The trend was finally completed with a double-top at NY close in the lead up to the AUD GDP release.
Wednesday: The giant FO pin-bar put me off a short entry at LO in this case. Sure enough LO broke just below FO before also making a large pullback and confirming (in my mind) that if London could break yesterdays high, we were going to see a continuation of Tuesday's bullish trend. I sat on the sidelines until LO+1 closed blue, forming a bullish TMS setup. I was almost certain that price would now meet yesterdays high so I entered immediately at LO+2 without waiting for a break of the setup candle. This more aggressive entry meant that I would have room to move my SL to BE if price was rejected by yesterdays high. Sure enough, price was rejected and I got out at BE. The double top that had now formed over two days, combined with divergence (marked by the grey lines on my chart) formed a nice bearish TMS setup for the US session. Again, I was unfortunately tied up with other work and completely missed this one. The long lower wick which formed at LO provided a nice 100 pip target for the move, before it retraced slightly and then pushed on down lower during the later hours of NY.
Thursday: A large two-bar-reversal pattern during FO-1 and FO persuaded me to take the TMS setup at the open of LO. Again, I didn't wait for a break of FO and entered immediately which, in this case cost me. London didn't go anywhere and perhaps my entry was too aggressive knowing that the large news stack in the US session could cause London to move sideways. Sure enough, the move of the day was caused by the early US releases. I watched these play out and was not confident in an entry short following such a large candle. Following the news, and after a little hesitation, price plummeted another 100 pips right through the 200ema to meet the level marked by Tuesday's news candle, pin-bar before the inevitable pullback back up above the moving average. (Congrats to TSS and LL who both caught pips on this move) (-25, -2%).
Friday: I'm not particularly keen on trading NFP days unless I see a really strong setup at LO. The consolidation in the lead up to LO combined with the red FO candle led me to believe that we might see a bearish move. LO matched the FO low and once LO+1 was rejected by the Asian high I decided to stay out. Sure enough London was flat in the build up to the large stack of news releases at NYO. The NFP candle was a huge WRB closing blue, forcing a nice TDI cross and leading to a 120 pip bullish move to finish the week. It was particularly choppy in the wake of NFP though, and I am not confident making entries after such big events.
A disappointing result but as I said before, not the easiest week to trade and a few good missed opportunities due to work/ business commitments. Sadly, in the coming weeks & months it's looking like I might have to take a break from trading and these weekly summaries, since I am going on some long term international secondments with work. I fly to China this week and my new hours are likely to make trading a real challenge. I'll have to see how it goes.
Anyway, as always please feel free to offer advice, feedback and criticism (preferably constructive
). It is always much appreciated!
Good luck in the coming week all!
Ballistical
3 trades in total:
- 0 Wins
- 1 BE
- 2 Losses
Well I never enjoy posting these summaries after a bad week, but it's useful to get everyones feedback, and also spend some time studying why trades might have gone wrong in order to develop my trade-plan. It was never going to be an easy week to trade this time round, as we entered September on Tuesday and of course, had the formidable NFP releases at the end of the week. Unfortunately, I missed some nice opportunities due to work commitments and equally made some basic errors in the trades that I took. I also picked the wrong week to revert from 1% risk per trade back up to 2% which I saw more success with previously. Oh well, nothing that can't be made back over time. 2 small losses and a break-even trade left me with -4% on the account this week.
Monday: I got to my charts at FO and saw what looked to be a strong setup. I usually wait for LO but have recently studied FO entries under specific conditions. I was looking for a pure TMS cross entry (with one closed setup candle and TDI green crossed over red) as well PA confirmation, and no nearby S/R. It ticked all three boxes with FO-1 closing red (setup candle) as a BEUB (PA confirmation) and no nearby S/R (50 pips to 200ema). The fatal error in this case was waiting for a break of FO-1 before entering. I've noticed that the FO candle rarely makes a big move without re-testing its open price at some point. For this reason FO entries must be immediately upon the candle opening and even then it can be tricky with spread. As it happens, the move I was expecting didn't really go anywhere at all but my poor entry meant I couldn't even get out at BE. London was fairly dead but there was a strong setup a few hours later as LO+3 re-tested the LO low and then formed a nice bullish TMS setup good for 100 pips. Unfortunately, I was away from my PC at this time so missed it...Doh! (-25, -2%)
Tuesday: The major AUD news in the hours leading up to London set a large pin-bar which confirmed an important level for later in the week. From there Tuesday was plain-sailing with a really nice bullish trend throughout the whole day. Unfortunately I was unable to even open my charts all day which meant I missed out on this one. The trend was finally completed with a double-top at NY close in the lead up to the AUD GDP release.
Wednesday: The giant FO pin-bar put me off a short entry at LO in this case. Sure enough LO broke just below FO before also making a large pullback and confirming (in my mind) that if London could break yesterdays high, we were going to see a continuation of Tuesday's bullish trend. I sat on the sidelines until LO+1 closed blue, forming a bullish TMS setup. I was almost certain that price would now meet yesterdays high so I entered immediately at LO+2 without waiting for a break of the setup candle. This more aggressive entry meant that I would have room to move my SL to BE if price was rejected by yesterdays high. Sure enough, price was rejected and I got out at BE. The double top that had now formed over two days, combined with divergence (marked by the grey lines on my chart) formed a nice bearish TMS setup for the US session. Again, I was unfortunately tied up with other work and completely missed this one. The long lower wick which formed at LO provided a nice 100 pip target for the move, before it retraced slightly and then pushed on down lower during the later hours of NY.
Thursday: A large two-bar-reversal pattern during FO-1 and FO persuaded me to take the TMS setup at the open of LO. Again, I didn't wait for a break of FO and entered immediately which, in this case cost me. London didn't go anywhere and perhaps my entry was too aggressive knowing that the large news stack in the US session could cause London to move sideways. Sure enough, the move of the day was caused by the early US releases. I watched these play out and was not confident in an entry short following such a large candle. Following the news, and after a little hesitation, price plummeted another 100 pips right through the 200ema to meet the level marked by Tuesday's news candle, pin-bar before the inevitable pullback back up above the moving average. (Congrats to TSS and LL who both caught pips on this move) (-25, -2%).
Friday: I'm not particularly keen on trading NFP days unless I see a really strong setup at LO. The consolidation in the lead up to LO combined with the red FO candle led me to believe that we might see a bearish move. LO matched the FO low and once LO+1 was rejected by the Asian high I decided to stay out. Sure enough London was flat in the build up to the large stack of news releases at NYO. The NFP candle was a huge WRB closing blue, forcing a nice TDI cross and leading to a 120 pip bullish move to finish the week. It was particularly choppy in the wake of NFP though, and I am not confident making entries after such big events.
A disappointing result but as I said before, not the easiest week to trade and a few good missed opportunities due to work/ business commitments. Sadly, in the coming weeks & months it's looking like I might have to take a break from trading and these weekly summaries, since I am going on some long term international secondments with work. I fly to China this week and my new hours are likely to make trading a real challenge. I'll have to see how it goes.
Anyway, as always please feel free to offer advice, feedback and criticism (preferably constructive
). It is always much appreciated!Good luck in the coming week all!
Ballistical
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
- #60,332
- Sep 7, 2015 1:39am Sep 7, 2015 1:39am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,193 Posts
EURAUD 7 Sep H1 Frankfurt Open FO:
Post#647:
- look for big candles, small candles,
- where is support and resistance?
- are we in consolidation?
Post#647:
- look for big candles, small candles,
- where is support and resistance?
- are we in consolidation?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #60,333
- Sep 7, 2015 1:57am Sep 7, 2015 1:57am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,193 Posts
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #60,334
- Sep 7, 2015 3:04am Sep 7, 2015 3:04am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,193 Posts
EURAUD 7 Sep H1 LO:
we just seen the LO candle closed, still not good set up for any H1 trade. H4 is sideways.
What do you see on your Weekly chart? Where is the potential 4H swing trade for this week?
we just seen the LO candle closed, still not good set up for any H1 trade. H4 is sideways.
What do you see on your Weekly chart? Where is the potential 4H swing trade for this week?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #60,338
- Sep 7, 2015 7:33am Sep 7, 2015 7:33am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,193 Posts
EURAUD 7 Sep NY Open hour
Today is US bank holidays ....and London will close in 4 hours.
If the current H4 close with TDI cross, will your take the trade setup?
Today is US bank holidays ....and London will close in 4 hours.
If the current H4 close with TDI cross, will your take the trade setup?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett