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  • #1,024,601
  • Sep 6, 2015 10:06am Sep 6, 2015 10:06am
anyway thanks to all I'll get some other work done before a one long asleep week I believe

see you later at markets opening .
  • #1,024,602
  • Sep 6, 2015 10:22am Sep 6, 2015 10:22am
Gamblers Fallacy: When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.


So will normally the odds are stacked against you in forex due to spreads/commission you have to pay we can reasonably say that to randomly trade based on no statistical evidence that is gambling or that the market is random as you basically put it. But the market goes deeper due to macro economic themes which influences the currency as one example. These are not random nor is this not hard to follow and thus profit. So combine this with a statically proven definable edge(chart patterns on weekly TF) then you have something that is not even close to gambling but more or less that of a button presser. There is risk no doubt but that does not mean it equates to gambling.

If you want to call it gambling that is fine.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #1,024,603
  • Sep 6, 2015 10:27am Sep 6, 2015 10:27am
hi

One more question.

What do you guys and girls do when your are short and the market goes long.
And is there a way do trade you out of such a lost.

i ask because a few times i am on the right side off the trade and have 30 or 100 pips but when it is wrong then there is a loss off 300 or more pips.
Happy trading
  • #1,024,604
  • Edited 10:54am Sep 6, 2015 10:42am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eventually 1.08 and less. but atm i am not short because things are muddy (china syndrome) and we were at a eu s/r and near ej major s/r..
Gator, i am long EJ but just a little above my SL, with oil range between 45-47 and Gold calm except for NFP time. I am looking at a 50% retrace from the friday drop which will put my in the green. but i am not as informed as you with the China aspect. i understand the affect of Chian with AUD and NZD due to the import/export relationship. I am thinking with the slight USD strength that Risk on will move back to norms and EJ and UJ will recover.

I would respect your opinion
Thanks

Or anyone else with constructive coments
  • #1,024,605
  • Sep 6, 2015 10:54am Sep 6, 2015 10:54am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Same dick from 2010 leopards can't change its spot​​

I'm the only one with complete transparency and everyone can follow me for free, what are you doing for your community?
  • #1,024,606
  • Sep 6, 2015 10:59am Sep 6, 2015 10:59am
Quoting AmeriTrini
{quote} I'm the only one with complete transparency and everyone can follow me for free, what are you doing for your community?
yes, I had to add 2 TE just to shut the hate up.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #1,024,607
  • Sep 6, 2015 11:01am Sep 6, 2015 11:01am
Guys.

Before You long UJ Look at HK50. On IG trading its 400 points lower than on Wednesday close.
  • #1,024,608
  • Sep 6, 2015 11:38am Sep 6, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Kribstreet
{quote}now two weeks ago when the eu shot up I managed to close a veery bad trade I had done two months ago , and stupidly though I did other more stupid trade blowing my rules so now I am having to hold onto it until we go back around 1.15 min . I promised myself I ll take a break after that as now I won't be sleeping until we get there again ...... I am though still confident I can work it out and this year I have had a six months golden that recovered all I had lost for stupid margin call and internet not letting me put more. Anyway as long as...
IF you are asking for advice, or my thoughts on the situation- you might consider that you are asking me if I believe that it will go to 1.17xx again, in hopes that I will further confirm that you maybe able to get out of a bad trade. The keyword being hope....and justification....further exacerbated by me agreeing with you (whether or not I'm a red flag or not). The issue here- is that is exactly what we want to avoid....hope and justification. I won't tell you where it is going, I can only tell you my plans if it goes to the spots I think it might.....just my outside-looking-in to your particular situation.

I've personally found myself in this situation with gator & sisse (when I first started this method), where I lost 6% of my account (i normally lose 1/2 a percent, so in essence I lost 12 times what I normally lose) because I was relying on their calls/outlook rather than my own. Hatch gave me a very good piece of advice at that time, and it was that both of them have more money to lose than I do, and even more experience losing it than I do. The take away from that- is that I cant possibly try to trade my method off of their outlooks, simply because they are trading with a different mindset and outlook than I am. Although I use the mofu method, just because gator sees something- doesn't mean my RR/experience/leverage etc will align with it.

Fun story for a day off I guess, and my personal experience this year. In fact I remember the exact candle. Sorry if it was long winded and doesnt apply. Maybe someone else will get something out of it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,024,609
  • Sep 6, 2015 11:42am Sep 6, 2015 11:42am
Quoting AmeriTrini
{quote} I'm the only one with complete transparency and everyone can follow me for free, what are you doing for your community?
DING DING. I know exactly where this will end. Such a fun game where my team is always the winner. Save this post.
  • #1,024,610
  • Sep 6, 2015 11:43am Sep 6, 2015 11:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} the proof is well known and reiterated all the time. Most forex traders lose money. The less money they have the more likely it is that they lose. Almost all undercapitalized traders end up losing and quitting. Why prolong the agony?
You're just being foolish.
  • #1,024,611
  • Sep 6, 2015 11:49am Sep 6, 2015 11:49am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You short GJ?
Which time? I haven't recently. If you mentioned it I missed it, focused on EU.
  • #1,024,612
  • Sep 6, 2015 11:58am Sep 6, 2015 11:58am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I mentioned it many times on this thread looking to short GJ to you and to 21 You don't miss much only 145 pips {image}
maybe next time send a pigeon? or brick though my window...
  • #1,024,613
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:02pm Sep 6, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Lucky with BOE bets are off and China fiasco
I've been getting tunnel vision with Dollar/rates/equities....and trying to do my real job
  • #1,024,614
  • Edited 12:29pm Sep 6, 2015 12:06pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting Rtm
Gamblers Fallacy: When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future. So will normally the odds are stacked against you in forex due to spreads/commission you have to pay we can reasonably say that to randomly trade based on no statistical evidence that is gambling or...
my bookie used the same criteria to set point spreads. his commission was included
Quoting Rtm
But the market goes deeper due to macro economic themes which influences the currency as one example. These are not random nor is this not hard to follow and thus profit. So combine this with a statically proven definable edge(chart patterns on weekly TF) then you have something that is not even close to gambling but more or less that of a button presser. There is risk no doubt but that does not mean it equates to gambling. If you want to call it gambling that is fine.
but if it makes one feel better to call it something else, that's ok with me. when you guys can tell me i can long at 1.1086 and it will go to 1175 with 100% certainty with my spread set.. then i am/on your bandwagon. but as long as you use words like probability, odds, statistical, with a bookies commission/broker. its gambling to me.

u shouldn't feels so bad about using the word. the builder borrowed the money from a bank, who gambled on the builder. the stock holders of the bank gambled on the bank. the system is built on gamblers. and we have trillions bet on it working.. including governments who gambled on those same banks. we even have governments gambling on other governments. none of these outcomes are 100% certainty.

it dont matter what information is used to make a trade, the outcome is never certain. plain and simple, even a educated guess with good odds is a gamble.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,024,615
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:18pm Sep 6, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} 4H calling 1072 Daily calling 1053 Not sure will hit the ground. Leaving my EU long open over the week. GL guys & Have a great weekend
I wish this week favor me (bulls) to close my longs @1281.
  • #1,024,616
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:24pm Sep 6, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting Ken A
I consult my parrot to make trade decision, not sure if that's gambling .....
What is his tip on the euro?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,024,617
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:27pm Sep 6, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting Amg63
{quote} Gator, i am long EJ but just a little above my SL, with oil range between 45-47 and Gold calm except for NFP time. I am looking at a 50% retrace from the friday drop which will put my in the green. but i am not as informed as you with the China aspect. i understand the affect of Chian with AUD and NZD due to the import/export relationship. I am thinking with the slight USD strength that Risk on will move back to norms and EJ and UJ will recover. I would respect your opinion Thanks Or anyone else with constructive coments
my opinion is about myself. i dont know what will happen today sun/mon concerning china.

my opinion is, some equity market violently may happen. it may cause a stronger yen. after the Asian session is Europe. If equity's do drop, is still unknown. if they do drop, more euro's may be brought home and raise the eu. w/o the u.s. markets influence till Tuesday.

those usd crosses excluding yen and euro were/are the better usd longs. more than likely because of commodities and they were not funding currencies like the yen and euro.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,024,618
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:29pm Sep 6, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sounds like a positive outcome situation. or pos for short, type of guy.
Indeed LMAO​

Quoting AaronWard
{quote} What is his tip on the euro?
A she not a he ......... She said sell and that worries me so I buy ......
  • #1,024,619
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:34pm Sep 6, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my opinion is about myself. i dont know what will happen today sun/mon concerning china. my opinion is, some equity market violently may happen. it may cause a stronger yen. after the Asian session is Europe. If equity's do drop, is still unknown. if they do drop, more euro's may be brought home and raise the eu. w/o the u.s. markets influence till Tuesday. those usd crosses excluding yen and euro were/are the better usd longs. more than likely because of commodities and they were not funding currencies like the yen and euro.

Thanks for the insite Gator, i am still trying to learn about the Equity connections and influence i had not even thought of that. (why i asked for your opinion) i accept responsibility for my own trades and i don't bad mouth or expect anyone else to do my trading for me.
i will be leaving my SL in place and tracking the results in my journal,but now i will add equity info to the mix
Thank again
  • #1,024,620
  • Sep 6, 2015 12:35pm Sep 6, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Indeed LMAO​ {quote} A she not a he ......... She said sell and that worries me so I buy ......
lmao @ that link.
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