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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,301
  • Sep 1, 2015 8:54pm Sep 1, 2015 8:54pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} My friend, with this widening of spreads all the stops as the geese fly away. (From my practice of Stop orders for 5 sec. To the news.) Losses amounted to $ 1530.00 (if it is not my habit to record the video to prove the broker that it has expanded the spread to such an extent it would be impossible.)
i see what you mean now. my first attempt on live account and the pending order was opened 15p below where i placed it. this did not happen on demo : / was lucky to get stopped at -0.1 pip
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  • #1,302
  • Sep 1, 2015 9:25pm Sep 1, 2015 9:25pm
Quoting toppo qqq
Made a good money, 30.7 pips at this time. {image}
I told you, my friend, the more you practice, the better the result
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,303
  • Sep 1, 2015 9:28pm Sep 1, 2015 9:28pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} I told you, my friend, the more you practice, the better the result
Thank you. Entry before the news, is the key IMHO.
  • #1,304
  • Sep 1, 2015 9:28pm Sep 1, 2015 9:28pm
Quoting grrbear
{quote} i see what you mean now. my first attempt on live account and the pending order was opened 15p below where i placed it. this did not happen on demo : / was lucky to get stopped at -0.1 pip {image}
No, my friend, this is not your trade.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,305
  • Sep 1, 2015 9:38pm Sep 1, 2015 9:38pm
Quoting toppo qqq
{quote} Thank you. Entry before the news, is the key IMHO.
If you are confident in the direction of the "yes"
If you are not sure about the direction of the "no"
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,306
  • Sep 2, 2015 3:41am Sep 2, 2015 3:41am
GB PMI - Construction (M/M)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,307
  • Sep 2, 2015 3:42am Sep 2, 2015 3:42am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} If you are confident in the direction of the "yes" If you are not sure about the direction of the "no"
Agreed 100%
  • #1,308
  • Sep 2, 2015 4:37am Sep 2, 2015 4:37am
Losses have to be returned quickly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,309
  • Sep 2, 2015 4:39am Sep 2, 2015 4:39am
Quoting toppo qqq
{quote} Agreed 100%
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,310
  • Sep 2, 2015 4:46am Sep 2, 2015 4:46am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release US Crude Oil Inventories. Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out .


*************************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 100,000 Barrel Rise in Crude Stocks
Published: Sep 01, 2015

By Nicole Friedman


NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to increase modestly in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 10 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 100,000 barrels, on average, in the week ended Aug. 28.

Five analysts expect stockpiles to fall, while another five expect a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 2.5 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels, according to analysts. Nine analysts expect a decline, with one expecting a rise. Estimates range from a rise of 3 million barrels to a drop of 900,000 barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.2 million barrels. All 10 analysts expect a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 300,000 barrels to a gain of 2.2 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen falling 0.5 percentage point to 94% of capacity, based on EIA data. Nine analysts expect a decline, and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a fall of 0.3 point to a drop of 0.6 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed an increase of 7.6 million barrels in crude-oil supplies, according to sources. The group said that gasoline supplies fell by 1 million barrels, a source said. API said U.S. distillate stocks increased by 251,000 barrels in the week, according to a source.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 1.6 0.9 2.2 -0.3
Citi Futures Perspective -1.5 -1.0 1.0 -0.5
Confluence Investment Management -2.0 -2.0 0.5 -0.5
Energy Management Institute 1.5 -1.0 1.5 -0.5
Excel Futures -1.0 -0.7 1.0 -0.6
Frost & Sullivan 2.5 -3.0 1.5 -0.5
IAF Advisors -1.5 -1.5 1.0 n/a
Ritterbusch and Associates 2.3 -2.5 0.3 -0.5
Schneider Electric 1.0 -2.5 1.0 -0.5
Tradition Energy -2.0 -2.0 2.0 -0.5

AVERAGE 0.1 -1.5 1.2 -0.5

(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)

***********************************************************
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,311
  • Sep 2, 2015 6:59am Sep 2, 2015 6:59am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} No, my friend, this is not your trade.
i do not understand
  • #1,312
  • Sep 2, 2015 7:13am Sep 2, 2015 7:13am
Quoting grrbear
{quote} i do not understand
I quoted the post № 1,297
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,313
  • Edited 9:01am Sep 2, 2015 7:33am | Edited 9:01am
2:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
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  • #1,314
  • Sep 2, 2015 9:34am Sep 2, 2015 9:34am
US DOE Crude Oil Inventories 4667 900 -5452

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,315
  • Sep 2, 2015 9:54am Sep 2, 2015 9:54am
Inserted Video
  • #1,316
  • Sep 2, 2015 11:57am Sep 2, 2015 11:57am
Thursday
10:30
03/09/15
SE Interest
(SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
11:30
03/09/15
GB The index of activity in the services sector
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
14% probability trades.

Thursday
14:45
03/09/15
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.


Thursday
17:30
03/09/15
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,317
  • Sep 2, 2015 12:02pm Sep 2, 2015 12:02pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

EU Minimum Bid Rate

The likelihood that the rate remains the same - high enough, and all the attention goes to the statement by Mario Draghi will be expected that the specific comments on the fate of inflation and as a derivative on terms QE.
The press conference will begin promptly at 45 minutes after the publication of the decision, as a rule, with the broadcast online, we will pay a separate post, what it actually deserves, because after the August "break" the markets have something to listen to find out whether there is that Mario Draghi to tell them.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,318
  • Sep 2, 2015 1:11pm Sep 2, 2015 1:11pm
At 9:30 pm EDT Australia will release Retail Sales. Expected at 0.4 after a prior of 0.7.

Good luck everybody
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,319
  • Edited 8:10pm Sep 2, 2015 1:30pm | Edited 8:10pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Mario Draghi will the terms of the European QE (online broadcasting)?


On Thursday, after a meeting of the ECB, Mario Draghi will hold a press conference, to which attention with the start of the fall season will be high: the inflation outlook, the prospects for the duration of stimulation, assessment of China, and more.
Will the ECB amounts and timing of incentive programs? Perhaps this is the main issue to be discussed at a press conference on Thursday, September 3 that directly or indirectly will ask the journalists are constantly in different forms.
Much has happened since the last meeting on July 16 and the euro meets new challenges and dilemmas. Global variables continue to put pressure on the consumer price index, inflation remains at a low level (0.2% in annual terms, with a target of 2%), oil prices continue to kink, China sneezes - all of these factors can shift the data and the estimated volumes of QE, Current expectations of its end (September 2016) may well be updated.
The key issues will be to Draghi (approximately wording course may vary):
- How do you assess the prospects for the duration of QE
- When you reach the inflation target, and it is planned to do if CPI shows 0% in the coming months
- Will the ECB to take measures to counter the global pressure
- Do you plan to expand the program
- What methods of monetary policy of the ECB is planning to use in the short term
Do not remain without attention and the Fed, it also from the standpoint of the ECB "passive factor" that can bring down the euro, which will help in the field of combat inflation.
The first board meeting after the holidays the European Central Bank will be broadcast online in this article.

You can watch it live here: http://www.bloomberg.com/live
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,320
  • Sep 2, 2015 8:35pm Sep 2, 2015 8:35pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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