[quote=ClinicalEx;8459886]
Moving onto the important GDP print. From most to least probable, in my case:
A +- par GDP: opens a move to 1.1374 to track the intraday range and sell if it breaks back. A lengthier play than the others to track, that may go into the following day(s), maybe creating a range from 1.1240/15->1.1374.
A solid miss- not lower than 2.7: opens up 1.1466 for the fade, or play the breakdown with the intraday range there. A quick, smooth play.
A solid increase- not higher than 3.5: Smooth intraday flow to 1.1215. A moderate move with eyes on a further break, but nothing new unless you're already loaded.
A strong miss- below 2.5: 1.1466 intraday break with a very fast extended range on the top-side break. Quick and and nasty non-play in my books with volatile whipsawing markets.
A strong increase- 3.7 and up: 1.1143opened in no time played with a quick 1.1215 break. Unrealistic and rapid play unless you're aready in, with the potential overshoot below.
Just to wrap up my view. Not a strong enough print for the direct play for the GDP, but it couldn't hold the second go with the support of the hawkish comment just now.
Looks like a pretty neutral monthly close if we hold around these levels on Monday, but dollar bears are going to need some ammo if they're going to hold the line going forward.
Moving onto the important GDP print. From most to least probable, in my case:
A +- par GDP: opens a move to 1.1374 to track the intraday range and sell if it breaks back. A lengthier play than the others to track, that may go into the following day(s), maybe creating a range from 1.1240/15->1.1374.
A solid miss- not lower than 2.7: opens up 1.1466 for the fade, or play the breakdown with the intraday range there. A quick, smooth play.
A solid increase- not higher than 3.5: Smooth intraday flow to 1.1215. A moderate move with eyes on a further break, but nothing new unless you're already loaded.
A strong miss- below 2.5: 1.1466 intraday break with a very fast extended range on the top-side break. Quick and and nasty non-play in my books with volatile whipsawing markets.
A strong increase- 3.7 and up: 1.1143
Just to wrap up my view. Not a strong enough print for the direct play for the GDP, but it couldn't hold the second go with the support of the hawkish comment just now.
Looks like a pretty neutral monthly close if we hold around these levels on Monday, but dollar bears are going to need some ammo if they're going to hold the line going forward.