The Really Useless Thread

[quote=ClinicalEx;8459886]
Moving onto the important GDP print. From most to least probable, in my case:

A +- par GDP: opens a move to 1.1374 to track the intraday range and sell if it breaks back. A lengthier play than the others to track, that may go into the following day(s), maybe creating a range from 1.1240/15->1.1374.
A solid miss- not lower than 2.7: opens up 1.1466 for the fade, or play the breakdown with the intraday range there. A quick, smooth play.
A solid increase- not higher than 3.5: Smooth intraday flow to 1.1215. A moderate move with eyes on a further break, but nothing new unless you're already loaded.
A strong miss- below 2.5: 1.1466 intraday break with a very fast extended range on the top-side break. Quick and and nasty non-play in my books with volatile whipsawing markets.
A strong increase- 3.7 and up: 1.1143 opened in no time played with a quick 1.1215 break. Unrealistic and rapid play unless you're aready in, with the potential overshoot below.

Just to wrap up my view. Not a strong enough print for the direct play for the GDP, but it couldn't hold the second go with the support of the hawkish comment just now.

Looks like a pretty neutral monthly close if we hold around these levels on Monday, but dollar bears are going to need some ammo if they're going to hold the line going forward.

is this going to hold or break what is your point?
1.1160?

I'm interested to know if the Fed raises rates next month, what would be the effect on Commodities?
I'm thinking down, or am I wrong?

Pretty interesting potential pattern on weekly. The light blue lines are the weekly ABCD, which on a time scale would complete the week of Sept 17th Fed mtg. The pink trendlines are a parallel flag pattern. Who knows, but the market set up the move.

Fickle Fed heads all in a row at Jackson Hole, none would follow up on Dudley to rule out a Sept. hike, forecasting an inflationary wind coming. Then, just a word from the Saudis (I was wondering who would blink first) and oil pops, well let's see how far it may rise, and with it that inflationary wind, and so the first rate hikes are well-timed by the all-knowing Fed. Beware Jackson Hole, I learned a long time ago....

Everybody back to business after the mini summer trading environment and all markets back to pre knee jerk reaction low liquidity (risk off leg) levels.

Plethora of movers and shakers this week pre Sep rates announcements but this time expecting moves with everybody on board.

In the Euro, nothing new and back to 1.128x as expected for the start of the month. Same map and levels in play for this week with a soft floor confirmed and lots air on a break above the 1.13xx handle.

sisse

hold my shorts from 1.1328 for daily target 1.1174

missed my another pending sell entry @ 1.13322 by 0.00001 Pips (highest high was 1.13321 on my broker)

Surprised nothing came out of Jackson Hole regarding the rates

I think the buzzmill press pretty well did a hawkish takeaway from the Fed heads gabbing at JH, most notably Fischer - pretty well reflected in the US index reaction this week, note the long bond is off, too - seems the markets pricing in a Sept ffr hike. I guess the risk for the contrarian is they don't do it and the btfd bulls coming roaring back to push for another run up to the end of the year.

thanks for the break down

Oil stealing the show again. The last few session moves are unbelievable in realtive size....Whatever the case, major rebalancing after the summer. Large flows positioning for the rest of the year (or at least until the FED rates). Equities making the typical zigzag after a large out of range leg and they will sit and form very noisy untradable chop zone there until NFP.

Currencies moving as collateral with Euro in a noisy choppy day with no surprises for a roll around 1.128x .... Choose your poison time forming in the next couple of sessions. Actively looking for trades opportunities across all major assets here ... flat across the board till then ...

sisse

how about a ^VIX spike around the Sept FOMC, then a crash into October? That will hold if Sept is a whiff for hikes. I'm set up for it in options (VXX) but did that over a month ago....

Euro chopping all.week long 1.128x but we are entering in choose your poison time with the European opening and later with US reports.

Gl all...

Sisse

A very quiet (lazy...) start to the week in my case. A cautious risk environment supporting the Euro. (10094 holding through German equities.) and we have a strong daily close over 1.1215 after the quick breach below on the pair.

Obviously a very neutral monthly close in the end, but I'm biased toward the sell the highs play around the quarterly high. Looks like Friday will be the day to see how that pans out.

Bulls holding the upper hand for now around Mondays high, and it doesn't look like there's much to offer for the bears at these levels (unless equities start shaking.) so just waiting until some of the key levels come into play: looking out for a 9800 test on DAX to sell the highs before Friday.

What's your view for the running week with ecb .... I am still shorting and holding ....

waiting for 12.150 for a possible turn

USDOLLAR D1:

....miss in the headline and the revision. Dollar in full control across the board for the first time in weeks. Eyes on the opening, hands on the orders. Euro 1.128x for the rest of the session until NFP will be enough ...

sisse

A comatose session in the Euro after the news forming a small compression range 1.118x / 1.127x for the ECB/ NFP combo..... Nothing to see here for the close. Same levles, same plays, same all....

sisse

Why are there no French fx traders? Maybe I just haven't noticed....but it seems there are plenty of Brits, Germans, Americans, Aussies, and good representation from many other countries ..... but no Frenchies. Why not?

in general? or did you mean in these boards? ...

There are plenty of them and they are as bastards as in anywhere else (don't you remember). If you meant in here, english boards and the language stigma/mumbojumbo is still a big non sense burden for a lot french people and applies far beyond trading discussion ...basically they usually hang out with themselves ...

In any case, today we finally got much need first round of news of the new season, expecting markets across the board to start going back to less "sensitive" environments with everybody back to business and with FED rates in play.

Not expecting much for the European session. In the euro, 1.122x holding the opening range will kill the session and leave the only level in play for this week (1.128x) ready for a first attempt to take it back ...Failure unlocks untrabale intraday 1.118x until ECB.

sisse