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  • #1,022,841
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:19am Aug 27, 2015 6:19am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Hi Gator, I don't know what to say really. I follow the US markets ( ES and DIJA -and have since I was about 12) but haven't really paid much attention to the DAX, so I'm not so familiar with it's patterns, or with how well the patterns I usually look for hold up for it. (Since I've been trading the EURUSD its correlation has been with the US markets, I guess because the ECB never tried to do the kind of QE they did until recently, so that's what I've always watched). It's only now, while looking for the explanation for the decoupling of...
here is a way to look at it.. gdp is down, while the market up. is a house built on sand, next to the seashore. summer is ending, winter is coming. birds are flying south for the winter. some are carrying the asian flue, in the form of less demand toward german already weak gdp.

why own a stock, in a downtrend. when they are losing more customers?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,022,842
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:25am Aug 27, 2015 6:25am
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  • #1,022,843
  • Aug 27, 2015 6:26am Aug 27, 2015 6:26am
I enter long at @1.287 and @1.1295 TP @1.1335 and 1.1396 SL1.1273

GL everyone
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in God i trust
  • #1,022,844
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:01am Aug 27, 2015 7:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here is a way to look at it.. gdp is down, while the market up. is a house built on sand, next to the seashore. summer is ending, winter is coming. birds are flying south for the winter. some are carrying the asian flue, in the form of less demand toward german already weak gdp. why own a stock, in a downtrend. when they are losing more customers?
Germans are flying to Thighland
  • #1,022,845
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:01am Aug 27, 2015 7:01am
Trying to get back on Trend with UCAD since daily support held. Looking for 1.34
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,022,846
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:15am Aug 27, 2015 7:15am
Popcorn ready. GL
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,022,847
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:20am Aug 27, 2015 7:20am
the real game after the announcement i guess is triggering stop loss and steal the position
Dont follow me if others express my same view, you get screwed!
  • #1,022,848
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:20am Aug 27, 2015 7:20am
Illuminati on the eur/usd ATM
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  • #1,022,849
  • Edited 7:36am Aug 27, 2015 7:23am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here is a way to look at it.. gdp is down, while the market up. is a house built on sand, next to the seashore. summer is ending, winter is coming. birds are flying south for the winter. some are carrying the asian flue, in the form of less demand toward german already weak gdp. why own a stock, in a downtrend. when they are losing more customers?
I don't know. One thing that bothers me about that scenario is that many years ago I read a book by somebody predicting what was going to happen to the US market (unfortunately can't remember which one - I've read so many), and he said that it was going to be just fine and chug steadily on up until 2012, if I remember right, and then either crash or stagnate. This was really a long time ago, and basically he got it quite right, seeing as how the current drop took us back to 2013 levels. His entire analysis was based on demographics - that the baby boomers would drive the US economy and market starting from about the mid/late 70s with increasing power as they hit their stride until then, and then as they started to retire they stop contributing to the economy and start consuming their savings (part of which would be in stock). And if you look at the charts, that's what happened.

And the thing is, in the US the cohorts with the highest birthrate were right after the war and ending about 1964. But in Germany, for obvious reasons, they really got going with the baby boom about 10 years later. The cohort in Germany with the highest birthrate was only born in 1964. So if this guy was right about demographics being the reason that was driving the US markets like that, then the DAX still has farther to go..
  • #1,022,850
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:26am Aug 27, 2015 7:26am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I don't know. One thing that bothers me about that scenario is that many years ago I read a book by predicting what was going to happen to the US market (unfortunately can't remember which one - I've read so many), and he said that it was going to be just fine and chug steadily on up until 2012, if I remember right, and then either crash or stagnate. This was really a long time ago, and basically he got it quite right, seeing as how the current drop took us back to 2013 levels. His entire analysis was based on demographics - that the baby...
Nice analysis Miss. Thx
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,022,851
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:30am Aug 27, 2015 7:30am
3.7 RIP
  • #1,022,852
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:32am Aug 27, 2015 7:32am
target reached 11250
  • #1,022,853
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:32am Aug 27, 2015 7:32am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I don't know. One thing that bothers me about that scenario is that many years ago I read a book by predicting what was going to happen to the US market (unfortunately can't remember which one - I've read so many), and he said that it was going to be just fine and chug steadily on up until 2012, if I remember right, and then either crash or stagnate. This was really a long time ago, and basically he got it quite right, seeing as how the current drop took us back to 2013 levels. His entire analysis was based on demographics - that the baby...
Great insights !
  • #1,022,854
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:35am Aug 27, 2015 7:35am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} gj actually went 1st, helped a bit but thinking gbp weakness more than yen+ will see how it pans out
GU back at our old 5413 . Imo pretty important number, marked start of a GU bull after elections gap.

...so if goes, could be fast to 1,528...1,52. Below is pretty dangerous monthly zone.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,022,855
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:45am Aug 27, 2015 7:45am
Going short still bother me on eur because of Fed rate hike in September is not looking now and i can see we have retraced quite a bit now on eur. Upper leg can start now although gdp is comes very positive but still it will be short live i am going long from 1.1253 sl 1.1200 tp 1.1380
  • #1,022,856
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:48am Aug 27, 2015 7:48am
historical data from USA carefully can be said - because in Q3 View the economy slowing and China
  • #1,022,857
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:49am Aug 27, 2015 7:49am
Short EU. Target 1.1160. Surprised it's going so slow, but major resistance here: Weekly pivot, ABCD down on 4H 1.1243, etc.

Edit: Note that this 'historical' Q2 data includes corporate profits for the first time for this quarter, so US companies must have done very well, which leads to new hiring, new spending, etc.
defense wins championships
  • #1,022,858
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:52am Aug 27, 2015 7:52am
IMO, this GDP number should apply usd strength for at least the rest of this us session. Assisted by yesterday's core durables figure and maybe by the home sales number still to come today. EU still has more pain to come in the immediate future.
  • #1,022,859
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:55am Aug 27, 2015 7:55am
1237 has nothing to do with 0964.. it is 1/2 of one pa target...looks like a new LL. and another 4h close under a level 1249
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,022,860
  • Aug 27, 2015 7:55am Aug 27, 2015 7:55am
but before we know Q 3 GDP = this September and growing opportunities to raise interest rates
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