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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #11,341
  • Aug 26, 2015 4:52am Aug 26, 2015 4:52am
The indices seem to be stuck at psychological levels, Dax at 10000, FTSE at 6000, CAC40 at 4500 and AEX at 430. I reckon there's not a lot of appetite to go either way though a big drop doesn't seem to be on the table and hope for a green open in NY seems to be the more plausible scenario. But for now it's oscillating between 9950 and 10020-10050 for Dax.
  • #11,342
  • Aug 26, 2015 6:13am Aug 26, 2015 6:13am
Quoting squallpips
The indices seem to be stuck at psychological levels, Dax at 10000, FTSE at 6000, CAC40 at 4500 and AEX at 430. I reckon there's not a lot of appetite to go either way though a big drop doesn't seem to be on the table and hope for a green open in NY seems to be the more plausible scenario. But for now it's oscillating between 9950 and 10020-10050 for Dax.
Momentum had definitely swung to the upside for now. Dax is stuck on the 30m 200ema atm @ 10,085, but I expect this to break even if we have to come down a bit first.
  • #11,343
  • Edited 7:35am Aug 26, 2015 6:37am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting cat
{quote} Momentum had definitely swung to the upside for now. Dax is stuck on the 30m 200ema atm @ 10,085, but I expect this to break even if we have to come down a bit first.
I agree, talk about ECB stimulus has given the EU indices a pat on the back, EURUSD is also trading down. Of course, the ECB has quite a knack of giving hints while actually not having do to do anything at all like the "buying before the summer" rumour of Coeur and Draghi's "whatever it takes" comment.

The market remains very jittery though, 10000-10030 range seems a nice entry point long for now, but longer term outlook (even for the remaining days of the week) seems pretty impossible to guess. A few Chinese and US slips could easily bring the Dax down to 9600 again.

EDIT: WTI approaching $40 again, though I still think it'll drop after 16:30

EDIT2: That's an unexpected durable goods number. This takes a drop out of the equation for today.
  • #11,344
  • Edited 8:44am Aug 26, 2015 7:35am | Edited 8:44am
Aiming for 10,358 for today...reason for this is that the hourly 100sma which acted as resistance for yesterday's high, has now dropped beneath the price, which, if I'm right, will act as support to send the price up. Currently this Ma is sitting @ 10,019 on my charts, so the price might have to drop back onto it or close to it before it turns. This sort of pattern often works, so we'll see if it can today.
  • #11,345
  • Aug 26, 2015 8:43am Aug 26, 2015 8:43am
Is this the US opening dip, or are we already fizzling out? Looking at a possible bounce around 10050.
  • #11,346
  • Aug 26, 2015 8:57am Aug 26, 2015 8:57am
The Dow looking like it could change direction at the top of the hour. If it can't. then my hopes for a bullish pm period will have diminished a little.
  • #11,347
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:06am Aug 26, 2015 9:06am
Quoting cat
The Dow looking like it could change direction at the top of the hour. If it can't. then my hopes for a bullish pm period will have diminished a little.
I think investors are very wary after that nasty last hour surprise in the US. All depends on the direction of US, if Dow Jones rallies to 16100 Dax should be safe but that's a very big if. Currently the 16000 break offers strength to Dax.
  • #11,348
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:09am Aug 26, 2015 9:09am
Quoting atraderfx
{quote} Short 10054 - lets see if this hold and the DAX falls back down under 10K and stays below for the rest of the day
Closed short a bit earlier - small profit +40 as the 10000 seemed to be holding. flipped long just now at 10060 - not an overly convincing upside or downside
  • #11,349
  • Aug 26, 2015 9:12am Aug 26, 2015 9:12am
Quoting squallpips
{quote} I think investors are very wary after that nasty last hour surprise in the US. All depends on the direction of US, if Dow Jones rallies to 16100 Dax should be safe but that's a very big if. Currently the 16000 break offers strength to Dax.
Yes that was brutal, 500 pip drop from nowhere, and I think today could have a surprise in store for us yet!
  • #11,350
  • Edited 10:59am Aug 26, 2015 9:22am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting cat
{quote} Yes that was brutal, 500 pip drop from nowhere, and I think today could have a surprise in store for us yet!
That goes fast. If the US downtrend persists the 10000 mark could be difficult to defend. There was just a bounce back from about 9995 but it doesn't look very good.

EDIT: WTI did fall, to about $38.70. I guess the bearish outlook remains (even if it seems to do a very small rally to 39.35) and even previously "impossible" prices like $30 seem feasible with the stock market slump and a very modest growth scenario.
  • #11,351
  • Aug 26, 2015 7:01pm Aug 26, 2015 7:01pm
That move up after hours was rather sharp. It's getting so much more difficult to judge the direction. 9600 seems just as likely to 10480 does. Anyone else got thoughts on where the DAX is heading?
  • #11,352
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:15am Aug 27, 2015 1:15am
Fibo perspective: - as long as eur respects its 61, and dax its 38 still bearish bias on dax.
1st eur D1
2nd dax D1
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  • #11,353
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:17am Aug 27, 2015 1:17am
Quoting cat
Aiming for 10,358 for today...reason for this is that the hourly 100sma which acted as resistance for yesterday's high, has now dropped beneath the price, which, if I'm right, will act as support to send the price up. Currently this Ma is sitting @ 10,019 on my charts, so the price might have to drop back onto it or close to it before it turns. This sort of pattern often works, so we'll see if it can today.
This pretty much came into play, though the pullback broke the 100sma and extended down to just below the 76.4% retrace anchored from the London open low. Now the H1 200ema has sent the price back down so it's going to take a lot of buyers to get it through this today to higher levels. I expect the H1 100sma which is now at 9,982 to be a support level again if we drop to that level, but if it breaks significantly then we could be in for quite a bearish day although there is plenty of technical support between Support pivot level 1 and 2.
  • #11,354
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:56am Aug 27, 2015 1:56am
I went long this morning, it looked like a typical setup that the market would pullback as it was sitting below the 200sma on the 1m chart after opening above 200pts from the previous close... This setup suggested an initial pullback and then a rally, as the US market closed very strongly last night and China was up again today. I have a long bias today, but suggest waiting for pullbacks.
  • #11,355
  • Aug 27, 2015 1:59am Aug 27, 2015 1:59am
Asia is closing up and China makes a surprise jump into positive gains of close to +3% with authorities probably stepping in to buy up everything they can before closing bell. So I reckon sentiment will be quite upbeat today. Yesterday's news from both the ECB and Fed are reassuring for markets to keep up their positive trend for now.

There are also rumours that China will take additional measures to prop up their economy, though I don't think that'll happen over the weekend. In any case, after their blunder leading to Black Monday they'll be more on the ball this time.

I do remain bearish for the longer term. US rate hike put off multiple times, additional EU stimulus, extra easing in China and Japan, that's not a sign of a healthy world economy. One can only hope these plans will work out before the markets sink but seems like there's a bit of a panic mood after China melted spectacularly in the last few weeks.
  • #11,356
  • Edited 2:20am Aug 27, 2015 2:02am | Edited 2:20am
GM - here's the bigger picture. Unlike the Dow which remains some 650 points in negative territory for the year, the DAx has now hit its 38% retrace of the last fall having only briefly moved under its January low, where it encountered heavy buying.

This morning having opened flat, the early fake-out was a nice buying opportunity for an early ~100 points.

Now to see what XO brings....barring input from China I would expect to the daily ranges to contract to a more normal 250 / 300 points rather than the 400+ seen so far this week - still plenty for profitable intra day trading

PS 5 Day ADR is currently at 459, the 10 Day 324 and the 20 Day 255
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,357
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:09am Aug 27, 2015 2:09am
Here's another view.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,358
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:18am Aug 27, 2015 2:18am
I believe that the DOW has reached its top as it has once again bounced off the long term trendline (lows of 2009 and 2011) which is now acting as resistance. Unless 16380 is broken then the crash will resume taking DAX with it
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  • #11,359
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:25am Aug 27, 2015 2:25am
Great trade opp at 07.18 for those who don't trade off small time frames. This is the 30 sec TF and the trade was taken when the descending MA crossed the flat one and the candles produced a single hammer. It produced 100 pips within 20 mins. If you're not catching these moves, then I'd say you need to lower your time frame size - 5 mins is way too big to get these.
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  • #11,360
  • Aug 27, 2015 2:44am Aug 27, 2015 2:44am
Nice one Cat.......even the standard 1m chart available in MT4 provides plenty of opportunities - obviously with more slippage than you are getting down there in the weeds
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Trading Levels with WRBs
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