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  • #1,022,021
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:50am Aug 24, 2015 10:50am
Quoting sgkrishn
still going to be wild Be-Aware {image}
flip the chart upside down and analyse again to remove bias. When you do that you will more likely see down move to come in a upside down chart, after it just broke support. So in the normal euro chart, it will go up after a retrace to re-test the broken S/R level.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,022,022
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:50am Aug 24, 2015 10:50am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} what is a fat finger in xau?
this is fat finger in EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_fat_finger.PNG Size: 105 KB

if this gonna flow like this next few days we will reach the top , anyways, im not a guru, what i did today - switched from 1h to daily tf, thats it
  • #1,022,023
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:55am Aug 24, 2015 10:55am
Quoting xau
{quote} this is fat finger in EU {image} if this gonna flow like this next few days we will reach the top , anyways, im not a guru, what i did today - switched from 1h to daily tf, thats it
that is a fat toe, not a finger. I did not know fingers grow on a foot.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,022,024
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:56am Aug 24, 2015 10:56am
Another Green day for the EUR/USD and the U.S stock market is facing selloff.
  • #1,022,025
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:57am Aug 24, 2015 10:57am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Priced in from when though? Back in April we started the month at 1.07xx. NFP in April was a huge miss so that killed expectations of a rate hike for May, June. And now we are 700 pips ABOVE that. So when was it priced in? Because AFTER April is when the NFP started to improve. Stocks: Hopefully it's just a correction, though Nasdeq down 5%, Shanghai down 8.5% in one day doesn't bode well. Still last time the dollar moved in the opposite direction. Stocks down used to equal dollar up. China. Very good point. Still doesn't make...
maybe because those funding euros were late comers (later than the early usd funded trades mostly) ecb easing was later when stocks were more expensive. maybe they are closing with less profit and more loses.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,022,026
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:59am Aug 24, 2015 10:59am
Lil' bit -o- panic at the moment. Big question I've seen here is why is dollar so sold vs. euro and yen... The answer is September Fed hike is out of the cards now. December hike is priced around 50/50 in fed funds and eurodollar futures. About a month ago market was pricing in 70-90% chance in September-- result of the probability switch is dollar sold vs. euro and yen. Dollar not really sold vs. GBP because GBP is in the same rate hike situation. Short sterling is pricing in a hike much later than before.

So the hike situation change makes sense as far as selling dollars. But why did the hike situation change? China slowdown means a few factors for the Fed have changed. Commodities won't find a bottom yet, which means lower US inflation (exacerbated by Iran saying they'll ramp up production at any cost). Dollar is still strengthening vs EM currencies... since EM is about 50% of the trade-weighted dollar the dollar looks strong in the Fed's favorite dollar index. Stronger dollar signals to the fed, despite weakness vs euro and yen, that it would not be prudent to hike. Finally, China slowdown has precipitated a major sell off in global equities. While the Fed claims they don't watch day-to-day equity changes, it certainly does not improve their confidence in the US economy and financial stability.

Now that the "funny"-mentals make at least some sense, what do we do? I think treasury curve flatteners make a lot of sense right now, especially short 2Y leg. I like selling aussie vs USD, JPY, and EUR. Most of all I like being short crude. We should wait until this calms down before selling EURUSD or buying USDJPY.
  • #1,022,027
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:08am Aug 24, 2015 11:08am
seems to be a small barrier at 1.157 to the downside
forex forex forex
  • #1,022,028
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:08am Aug 24, 2015 11:08am
Quoting openyoureyes
easy one: FED rate hike is already priced in... btw stocks are nowhere near a crash. edit: also back in 2008 china was doing GREAT. china = world production
That big red monthly candle in equities is not going to turn green in a few days by the end of this month. It is going to be a big red candle with lower wick. The following weeks, that wick will be traced back or even more. Chinese equities Shanghai index broke support 3500, so more drop to come, and it will drag the world equities down. It may not be a crash, but more correction for stocks to come.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,022,029
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:10am Aug 24, 2015 11:10am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} that is a fat toe, not a finger. I did not know fingers grow on a foot.
Teo was lost in accident and replaced from hand, so technically it's a finger
  • #1,022,030
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:10am Aug 24, 2015 11:10am
hi @ffleo and fff quiz time again ..north or south?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: north or south.PNG Size: 153 KB
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #1,022,031
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:14am Aug 24, 2015 11:14am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That big red monthly candle in equities is not going to turn green in a few days by the end of this month. It is going to be a big red candle with lower wick. The following weeks, that wick will be traced back or even more. Chinese equities Shanghai index broke support 3500, so more drop to come, and it will drag the world equities down. It may not be a crash, but more correction for stocks to come.
the world big equities markets are more or less connected. One down will drag others down. It was DAX going down 5 months earlier, followed by Chniese stocks two months later, and now it is the US stocks and Japanese stocks. If DAX and the Chinese stocks keep dropping, do not expect the US stocks to go up.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,022,032
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:17am Aug 24, 2015 11:17am
Tim Cooke may have gotten APPL in a bit of a pickle this morning....
  • #1,022,033
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:23am Aug 24, 2015 11:23am
Quoting gatorinla
oil 38.99 low {image}
still another 36.xx under this one.. i dont have any others below atm
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,022,034
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:31am Aug 24, 2015 11:31am
time for some SL sweeping...
  • #1,022,035
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:35am Aug 24, 2015 11:35am
hashtag blackmonday
  • #1,022,036
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:38am Aug 24, 2015 11:38am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the world big equities markets are more or less connected. One down will drag others down. It was DAX going down 5 months earlier, followed by Chniese stocks two months later, and now it is the US stocks and Japanese stocks. If DAX and the Chinese stocks keep dropping, do not expect the US stocks to go up.
technically I do not see why the Chinese stock Shanghai index will not drop to 2800 or even 2400/2000

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SSEC-2015-08-24 11:31:07.png Size: 121 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,022,037
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:39am Aug 24, 2015 11:39am
Quoting Pharm0r
Tim Cooke may have gotten APPL in a bit of a pickle this morning....
what happened?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,022,038
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:43am Aug 24, 2015 11:43am
Could it reach 1700 again?
If words were riddles Money Spoken would fall from the sky
  • #1,022,039
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:47am Aug 24, 2015 11:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what happened?
China

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/25/te...amer.html?_r=0
  • #1,022,040
  • Aug 24, 2015 11:47am Aug 24, 2015 11:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what happened?
Time cook expacting the things (growth - economy) will be fine in china in forth Quarter or something .... I don't know the right details , so many news came and gone ... sorry if giving the wrong info .
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