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  • #1,021,981
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:08am Aug 24, 2015 10:08am
Simple: cause humanity is stupid.
  • #1,021,982
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:08am Aug 24, 2015 10:08am
Quoting tablet8
according to abbonacci EURUSD will reach 1.18570 {image}
where's the sl?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,021,983
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:09am Aug 24, 2015 10:09am
Quoting MissPips
Ok, macro fundie analysts, who wants to explain this? Last time it was risk off in 2008, stock markets crashed, and people BOUGHT the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed was obviously going to lower rates, and in spite of the fact that the US economy was falling apart from the collapse of the housing bubble. Now we have risk off, stock markets are collapsing, and people are SELLING the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed is (theoretically at least) going to raise rates and the the US economy is RECOVERING finally from the collapse of...
Going to safety hiding in treasury

Some inflation hedge from China into gold

Need only good news to change things around for the equities to pick up
  • #1,021,984
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:10am Aug 24, 2015 10:10am
Unexpected bounce. Average weekly move in just one day Have no idea where to place an order.
  • #1,021,985
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:11am Aug 24, 2015 10:11am
Quoting MissPips
Ok, macro fundie analysts, who wants to explain this? Last time it was risk off in 2008, stock markets crashed, and people BOUGHT the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed was obviously going to lower rates, and in spite of the fact that the US economy was falling apart from the collapse of the housing bubble. Now we have risk off, stock markets are collapsing, and people are SELLING the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed is (theoretically at least) going to raise rates and the the US economy is RECOVERING finally from the collapse of...
what you wrote completly make sense , but my question is what is your chart telling you , try to zoom out , weekly , monthly ?
  • #1,021,986
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:12am Aug 24, 2015 10:12am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} what is a fat finger in xau?
tv slang for HFT algorithms hunting SL, which leads to flash crashes...

check 2012 xau charts
  • #1,021,987
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:12am Aug 24, 2015 10:12am
Quoting MissPips
Ok, macro fundie analysts, who wants to explain this? Last time it was risk off in 2008, stock markets crashed, and people BOUGHT the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed was obviously going to lower rates, and in spite of the fact that the US economy was falling apart from the collapse of the housing bubble. Now we have risk off, stock markets are collapsing, and people are SELLING the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed is (theoretically at least) going to raise rates and the the US economy is RECOVERING finally from the collapse of...
some will buy gold to 1224.84, is my guess.. before gold crash
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,021,988
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:13am Aug 24, 2015 10:13am
Quoting MissPips
Ok, macro fundie analysts, who wants to explain this? Last time it was risk off in 2008, stock markets crashed, and people BOUGHT the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed was obviously going to lower rates, and in spite of the fact that the US economy was falling apart from the collapse of the housing bubble. Now we have risk off, stock markets are collapsing, and people are SELLING the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed is (theoretically at least) going to raise rates and the the US economy is RECOVERING finally from the collapse of...
I think it depends on which direction money flows. This year DAX tanked first and money flew back to the dollar first from the US investors. Now the spx and dow tanking, money flows back to euro from the euro zone investors.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,021,989
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:15am Aug 24, 2015 10:15am
Quoting MissPips
Ok, macro fundie analysts, who wants to explain this? Last time it was risk off in 2008, stock markets crashed, and people BOUGHT the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed was obviously going to lower rates, and in spite of the fact that the US economy was falling apart from the collapse of the housing bubble. Now we have risk off, stock markets are collapsing, and people are SELLING the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed is (theoretically at least) going to raise rates and the the US economy is RECOVERING finally from the collapse of...
Great questions MissPips! I'm no macro fundie, but have been thinking about this for the last week. Here's my guess. You are right, it doesn't make sense....at first.

But, there appears to be a change in your underlying factual background that changes the story. The market no longer believes the Fed is going to raise rates. (Proof/source: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...fed-funds.html). As of end of day Friday, only 23.6% of the market believed in a Sept hike. 5% more for Oct. Then up to 39% by December. still less than half. End of day today will probably destroy those % it appears.

So, if the market doesn't think Fed is going to raise rates, why not? Perhaps US economy is thought to be at risk of the global new-recession (my wording for now until the talking heads give it a name). Perhaps US economy is built on cards with all these part time no benefit jobs due to the Obamacare disincentive to business to hiring full time workers.

What does the market do when it second guesses its former assumptions? retrace as people cover their positions. This is starting to look like a move back to the 50% 1.22 level in EU, but it could just be a fast 38.2% retrace to 1.18. We will see.
defense wins championships
  • #1,021,990
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:16am Aug 24, 2015 10:16am
Not to worry folks this is just the elites having a bad start to their week after getting caught on Ashely Madison

Cheers~
  • #1,021,991
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:17am Aug 24, 2015 10:17am
my Target is about 1.1739
  • #1,021,992
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:18am Aug 24, 2015 10:18am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I think it depends on which direction money flows. This year DAX tanked first and money flew back to the dollar first from the US investors. Now the spx and dow tanking, money flows back to euro from the euro zone investors.
market volatility also triggered a large amount of short covering
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,021,993
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:18am Aug 24, 2015 10:18am
Quoting MissPips
Ok, macro fundie analysts, who wants to explain this? Last time it was risk off in 2008, stock markets crashed, and people BOUGHT the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed was obviously going to lower rates, and in spite of the fact that the US economy was falling apart from the collapse of the housing bubble. Now we have risk off, stock markets are collapsing, and people are SELLING the dollar, in spite of the fact that the Fed is (theoretically at least) going to raise rates and the the US economy is RECOVERING finally from the collapse of...

How fund houses and hedge funds work is via allocations...esp for houses can do long and short. If i got so much dough, changing strategies and hedging all sorts of ways are easier done. Ok i am guessing but rem ING predict that EUR would be like a stone drop by end of year...maybe when fed hiked it, you can see the flows going another direction.

Europe and Japan QE plans are confirmed and in a progress...for now, unwinding of carry trades (guessing) is due to the uncertainty in the mkt...once all good, normal flows would continue..

Why selling of dollars..previously dolllars were used as a funding ccy due to fed's QE, with obvious reason on expectation of rate hike, people bought dollars. And hiking rate is not a big jump of % but in incrementally wise.

And with this global downturn, maybe pple are betting yellen and frens gonna say no to it, and dollars would be gg down...might as well short it now.

It is all about flows..and with china releasing pension funds into investing, it is sorta of a QE..similar to japan which is trying or has done it ( out of the mkt awhile so had not been reading reports )
  • #1,021,994
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:20am Aug 24, 2015 10:20am
Quoting giggsy
{quote} can i check with you, which house did you play for your options? thanks mate it is scary when exactly 9.10pm (asian time zone) yen and eur PA with big volumes went up...and looking at bond yield, crude oil ( just to see the what causing it ), there are nothing but just pure flows. yeah Seemore say unwinding of carry trades which make sense....but just before US opens, maybe big players were scared of US markets gonna tank badly which it did..but is recovering now..maybe this time it has bottomed? lets see how asian markets react tom. anyway...
I mostly buy long usd/nok vanillas NY execution (short crude).

I'm also holding a ubs biotech etf fund for +1 year. (stocks will be recovering no matter what)

I also sell puts/calls for high premium when there is liq. which I don't recommend...

I think by end of sep. Eur will be a sure buy, but not now
  • #1,021,995
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:23am Aug 24, 2015 10:23am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} when uj spiked down you would think all other xxx/usd pair would spike up. nope, aussie and kiwi spiked down. this means euro and yen were bought against all other currencies, more so than against the us dollar
pardon me, i tried to google UJ but couldn't find what it stands for...poss to enlighten me? tks!
  • #1,021,996
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:24am Aug 24, 2015 10:24am
eur long folks: party is over, you can now go to your homes
  • #1,021,997
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:25am Aug 24, 2015 10:25am
EUR USD analogy geometry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #1,021,998
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:25am Aug 24, 2015 10:25am
Quoting giggsy
{quote} pardon me, i tried to google UJ but couldn't find what it stands for...poss to enlighten me? tks!
UJ = U/J = USD/JPY
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,021,999
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:27am Aug 24, 2015 10:27am
Quoting Ken A
No heroes claiming victory Malachi Wu it's about time to show up
Gold didn't do anything today :nerd:

EU:
Maybe bear norm 1.1833

Large bull norm 1.0993
  • #1,022,000
  • Aug 24, 2015 10:28am Aug 24, 2015 10:28am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Gold didn't do anything today :nerd: Maybe bear norm 1.1833 Large bull norm 1.0993
I wont sell gold right now - no reason to yet
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