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EURUSD

  • #1,021,301
  • Aug 22, 2015 12:57am Aug 22, 2015 12:57am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} There was only one extreme COT situation before like the current one and both the extremes shrunk.
Hey ffleo, finally had a chance to look into this. You mean large speculators breaching the extreme of -200k? The last time they did that in June 2012 pretty much marked the end of the bear run and the start of the move from 1.20 to 1.36 (and eventually 1.40). And they did it again in March this year after the low had been printed. So yes, in this sense COT data can be used to help confirm that bias has turned from bearish to bullish. Thanks again

Very glad I abandoned my shorts at 1.1050 The market's been brutal since then. I still have a long-term bearish bias though, so it's just a matter of waiting for the right moment to start loading shorts again.
You reap what you sow.
  • #1,021,302
  • Aug 22, 2015 4:28am Aug 22, 2015 4:28am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} lol no resistances in between. clean move to 1.1340???
This is called clean move, its 1.1364... LOL...
Jias...
  • #1,021,303
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:07am Aug 22, 2015 5:07am
Quoting iqyu5an
so where is Mr and Mrs Parity ?
long time no see , where have you been where we was @1.0808 ?
  • #1,021,304
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:12am Aug 22, 2015 5:12am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} long time no see , where have you been where we was @1.0808 ?
Parity is still possible...

On my broker the swap sell on eurusd is still positive.


ECB isn't supposed to hike rate for years, so the sellers could still have the advantage.

So it is not over yet!
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #1,021,305
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:12am Aug 22, 2015 5:12am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} long time no see , where have you been where we was @1.0808 ?
was building long down there . but keeping respect on bearish sentiment also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euprojectionwd4.png Size: 42 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #1,021,306
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:21am Aug 22, 2015 5:21am
Quoting MedusaInvest
Hello everybody! Im not used to post here, Ive been reading for a year plus this threat but I would like to start sharing some of my analysis with you. I hope it could help someone.

As you can see in both images, price has finished the second wave at 1.1195 (0.382 Fibbo) and it should start now the third one (bearish) , which will reach 1.0420 (1.618 Fibbo) {image} {image}
Quoting MedusaInvest
{quote} Ive opened a short position at 1.1195, t/p 1.0420 and s/l 1.1290.

s/l is 0.236 Fibbo and an invalidation level

Clear levels and stop posted without smokes and mirrors.



Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} was building long down there . but keeping respect on bearish sentiment also {image}

Smokes and mirrors

Nothing unusual from commercial guys

Price going down they come out they short from the top

Price going up they long from the bottom
  • #1,021,307
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:24am Aug 22, 2015 5:24am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} was building long down there . but keeping respect on bearish sentiment also {image}
I couldn't remember but I think we talked about another picture which you've posted and you were bullish there too . but you told me you will change you plan if it break below 0818 ! so I thought you turned bearish too ... , I saw your post that you longed 0974 with 200 pips stop around 14 july but you wasn't around here between 14-30 july , anyways . was a nice call to long 0974
  • #1,021,308
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:26am Aug 22, 2015 5:26am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {quote} Clear levels and stop posted without smokes and mirrors.
Ken, what is your guess where the EU will end up, it looks like they want to take it up to 1,17-1,18 at least looking at the monthly and quarterly charts. But they didn't build any support levels so if this falls it will be a sharp fall I think, what is your opinion?
  • #1,021,309
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:27am Aug 22, 2015 5:27am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} I couldn't remember but I think we talked about another picture which you've posted and you were bullish there too . but you told me you will change you plan if it break below 0818 ! so I thought you turned bearish too ... , I saw your post that you longed 0974 with 200 pips stop around 14 july but you wasn't around here between 14-30 july , anyways . was a nice call to long 0974
14-30 july ?? was in eid mubarak holiday
not euphoria follower
  • #1,021,310
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:29am Aug 22, 2015 5:29am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} 14-30 july ?? was in eid mubarak holiday
okay , btw how is your funndies view about EU , is there anything supporting EU atm ?
  • #1,021,311
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:31am Aug 22, 2015 5:31am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Ken, what is your guess where the EU will end up, it looks like they want to take it up to 1,17-1,18 at least looking at the monthly and quarterly charts. But they didn't build any support levels so if this falls it will be a sharp fall I think, what is your opinion?
It's difficult for me to see the bolded technical levels w/o having underlying reason.

Do you notice that only EURUSD is moving up but GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, XXXUSD are not?

And your guess is right, the fall will be sharp when market is changing direction in equities.
  • #1,021,312
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:37am Aug 22, 2015 5:37am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} It's difficult for me to see the bolded technical levels w/o having underlying reason. Do you notice that only EURUSD is moving up but GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD are not?
Yes was keeping an eye on GU and that one was almost flat throughout this upmove in EU. Could this be just technical that they use these fundamental reasons to quickly fill up the gaps in the charts and drop it hard down later?

In the quarterly chart there is a big gap at around 1,166, looking at that one now it looks like they are aiming for that one? Since you are the experienced trader, could this be just a big technical move?
  • #1,021,313
  • Edited 5:53am Aug 22, 2015 5:37am | Edited 5:53am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {quote} Clear levels and stop posted without smokes and mirrors. {quote} Smokes and mirrors Nothing unusual from commercial guys Price going down they come out they short from the top Price going up they long from the bottom
just execute my own plan for personal without too much posting in working days/hours : http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1436447921

who commercial ?

trading is fun......relax
not euphoria follower
  • #1,021,314
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:40am Aug 22, 2015 5:40am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} okay , btw how is your funndies view about EU , is there anything supporting EU atm ?
am about 90 % technical 10 % fundies, still blank i just follow my own road map. now still waiting for any candle confirmation
not euphoria follower
  • #1,021,315
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:53am Aug 22, 2015 5:53am
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} just execute my own plan for personal without too much posting in working days/hours : http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1436447921 trading is fun......relax

Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't short not now wait NY session Eyes on CAD

Quoting iqyu5an
long lha ...... and let it go {quote}

Then don't reply my post with nonsense acting superior ...... w/o giving reasons .......

Trading is fun when you are playing with others people's money not your own .......

This is not Twitter.

Stop it right here.
  • #1,021,316
  • Aug 22, 2015 5:55am Aug 22, 2015 5:55am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {quote} {quote} Then don't reply my post with nonsense acting superior ...... w/o giving reasons ....... Trading is fun when you are playing with others people's money not your own ....... This is not Twitter. Stop it right here.
how long have u been in FX ? u look for instant profit ? just go to vegas

u don't know how i see the chart etc...so just open your own mate ...

Twitter ? check my twit . any commercial ?
not euphoria follower
  • #1,021,317
  • Aug 22, 2015 6:11am Aug 22, 2015 6:11am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Do some research as to why JPY, CHF, and EUR gain most last few days will give you the answer. Won't go to technical or fundamental as some people will say technical is moving fundamental - it's a futile debate.
Yes saw your posts about risk aversion because of all the China problems and all other global problems. You are right that is a futile debate, technical vs fundamental, but it almost feels that every time big technical levels are skipped some news is there to drive the price up there. Normally you would expect with EU up, GU would be pulled with it.

Thanks for the replies and help, much appreciated.
  • #1,021,318
  • Edited 8:13am Aug 22, 2015 7:43am | Edited 8:13am
Quoting gatorinla
original min oil target reached 39.8x. some others to 35.08...some are saying 15$ pb.. i dont have a chart that low. it hit 39.xx and may go lower.. i have nothing else to pull from.. last i have 35.08/37.67


dont worry... you will see 35$.

For what I am seeing here that will be inevitable. For example Oman this month pumped oil with a rate as never before.
I ask my friend who works in the oil field... in the country next by where I had a project before... he told me that they opened some of the booster wells. Hmmm...

Also public projects here in middle east starting to slow down too. That does not go great at the consumption side. Gov. clients paying morals turns shit. I didnt got paid for the work I've done 1 1/2 years ago. Actually I am fuming, because I wanted to buy my favored Oil ETFs - ProShares UltraShort SCO with that. But that I can forget now...
  • #1,021,319
  • Edited 10:06am Aug 22, 2015 9:44am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} dont worry... you will see 35$. For what I am seeing here that will be inevitable. For example Oman this month pumped oil with a rate as never before. I ask my friend who works in the oil field... in the country next by where I had a project before... he told me that they opened some of the booster wells. Hmmm... Also public projects here in middle east starting to slow down too. That does not go great at the consumption side. Gov. clients paying morals turns shit. I didnt got paid for the work I've done 1 1/2 years ago. Actually I...
i know thousands in the oil field. but it dont make me, or any of them, any more knowing, other than what we see. oil demand has gone lower, as production has risen. so yes it can go lower, that's the trend.

the easiest catalyst i have have found is copper, walmart, and cat. they proceeded the oil drop when oil was at highs. gasoline was also indicative of oil not highs recovering, when i had wholesale gasoline toward 1.5$ pg (a yearish before drop). t boone pickens one of the most famous oil experts and my simple chart were at odds. i was at odds with most everyone (few believed gasoline under 2$ again would happen in the u.s. at that time). even at odds about eu drop and commodities across the board being in a china bubble. china was a paper tiger than and is even more today. is the drop over? i dont know.. one thing for me, indicated by this, the eu will drop when this bounce stops. and the longer it rises, the greater the depression to follow, in the ezmu will be. that will put great pressure for the emu to dissolve. at least with less southern members that it has today.
btw i own a oil well. and i still talked down oil for the reality. living in a oil based economy dont make me ignore the signs. like talked about 2 years ago, the saudis are/were borrowing money. thats not a good sign for oil. it looks bearish fundi wise, but my charts stop where they do. it can drop further, i just cant invent deeper w/o chart agreeing. i stated the level as a minimum. when it moves it may give better signals with time. at the time of 911 oil was about 23 bucks.. the world needs a reset with oil, that price will probably find its level above 23. (but in 1973 oil was much less,) rockfellow was the richest man in the world at 3$, even 23 may be high.. it will find its level. a level many will guess and most will be wrong.

those oil based economies like the saudis may also need a reset. they fucked the u.s. by raising the price from 23 pb to 147 while the u.s. was shedding blood to protect asia and europe's m.e oil. those resets may have new kings and more arab springs from russia to south america. hell even china may have to change its leadership. quote this one..i have a feeling i certainly will in years to come
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,021,320
  • Aug 22, 2015 9:55am Aug 22, 2015 9:55am
Quoting Jias IND...
{quote} This is called clean move, its 1.1364... LOL...
yup well done with that trade. I still have underwater shorts. what i want to see now is if euro is going to touch 1.15. my account and existing shorts cannot take that price. I will probably be washed out. However I am giving a second thought whether to reload my account. one thing for sure is it will not stop before 1.15-1.16.
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