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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,661
  • Aug 20, 2015 9:46pm Aug 20, 2015 9:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Interesting view from the Asia perspective. I kind of agree with your view on the implications of FED and commodities
Thanks Sisse, just adding some personal experience from current position in commercial sector. Anyway, thanks for the superb analysis!!
  • #136,662
  • Aug 20, 2015 11:40pm Aug 20, 2015 11:40pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Got me
Good pattern you found...
  • #136,663
  • Aug 21, 2015 1:03am Aug 21, 2015 1:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} BTFD has been the plan that works since olden times....no sure bet that it will change now.
BTFD has to stop working sometime..

You know what they say- suckers don't die, new suckers come along to replace the old ones.. That's the way the marketworks.

I don't see any reason to be buying the dips now

Nasdaq has been so kind to me
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  • #136,664
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:09am Aug 21, 2015 2:09am
Quoting PIP Lover
I don't see any reason to be buying the dips now
THE reasons are all on the charts. but they're not really reasons, anything can happen. Every big dip has been bought with fury all year, but maybe this time is different....anyway, for Friday I will look to play a small ^VIX collapse via weekly VXX options - but that's what I do every Friday anyway.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,665
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:24am Aug 21, 2015 2:24am
Congrats to some of the members on here smashing equities. A broad sell-off sparked by China which could get nasty. Dollar being hammered in risk off like we discussed last week. Flat here, watching with interest and a bit envious of those riding equities down

Just a quick update. I mentioned a potential position trade/long term swing on NZD/JPY so going to update my views with a chart. Tracking this pair very closely, along with equities.


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  • #136,666
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:59am Aug 21, 2015 2:59am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Congrats to some of the members on here smashing equities. A broad sell-off sparked by China which could get nasty. Dollar being hammered in risk off like we discussed last week. Flat here, watching with interest and a bit envious of those riding equities down
/ES was down >15 in early Asia, now just down 1.5. With the USD under pressure and /CL unable to break $41 with any force, I'd say the storm is over, for a day, but we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,667
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:11am Aug 21, 2015 3:11am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} /ES was down >15 in early Asia, now just down 1.5. With the USD under pressure and /CL unable to break $41 with any force, I'd say the storm is over, for a day, but we'll see.
Thanks for the good view. DAX the line in the sand if the storm picks up later. 10000 on one of the healthier/well supported equities should say a bit about the breadth of this sell-off.
  • #136,668
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:12am Aug 21, 2015 3:12am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Congrats to some of the members on here smashing equities. A broad sell-off sparked by China which could get nasty. Dollar being hammered in risk off like we discussed last week. Flat here, watching with interest and a bit envious of those riding equities down Just a quick update. I mentioned a potential position trade/long term swing on NZD/JPY so going to update my views with a chart. Tracking this pair very closely, along with equities. {image}
Hello,
I have been tracking this pair for a while too - here is a closer look into the recent chop zone. I agree that this pair has a great potential for a long term short trade. Im just waiting for a break of the compresion zone (= break of one of the side of the triange) and its confirmation by a W close under the orange rectangles (= previous W closes). Waiting for these singals is really pain - as always with long term trades

The only thing that worries me a little is that Im not so closely aware of the Japanise fundamentals = not sure if this long term leg down has fundamental logic.
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  • #136,669
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:34am Aug 21, 2015 3:34am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hello, I have been tracking this pair for a while too - here is a closer look into the recent chop zone. I agree that this pair has a great potential for a long term short trade. Im just waiting for a break of the compresion zone (= break of one of the side of the triange) and its confirmation by a W close under the orange rectangles (= previous W closes). Waiting for these singals is really pain - as always with long term trades The only thing that worries me a little is that Im not so closely aware of the Japanise fundamentals = not...
Your trigger looks very good.

Agree that we have to keep a close eye on BOJ especially. If they start pumping new aggressive monetary policy all bets are off, but I think this is unlikely, and the (potential.) costs may outweigh the short term benefits at this stage. (Diminishing returns.) Although, they've always been a tricky customer to deal with so we definitely need to keep our ears to the ground.

I suspect the main part of the move (for the purposes of getting the trade truly off the ground before we can go to sleep.) will come from a sell-off in their stock market, maybe coinciding with a period of sustained global slowdown pulling the likes of NZ (tied up via Australia/China.) down with it.

Either way, a superb technical setup developing that doesn't come along every day and , like you say, demands tons of patience and persistence (if initial trigger is broken back for instance.) but with a massive payoff.
  • #136,670
  • Aug 21, 2015 4:00am Aug 21, 2015 4:00am
Ufff ...where to start !!! ...still trying to digest all the moves and arrange charts. From the most important down:

Quoting sisse
uff what a closing range !!! and what a superb day !!! .. ...We are in IMMINENT RISK LEG ALERTS across the board with Equities and Oil with imminent breaks [check] triggered and GOLD aligned in risk off for a potential "RED Friday"
A massive wordlwide RISK selloff overnight and a crazy european opening range finding real long term money buying the dip with China in the middle crumbling even further (China is getting scary under any measure).

Quoting sisse
The current leg in european equities I wouldn't call it global meltdown, just a natural due pullback to a more inline levels with economic reality. 1000x is the area when ECB announced QE which seems like both the technical and fundamental area for a pullback [in play] for the mid and long term wave to recovery.
Quoting sisse
China crumbling in front of our eyes. Nearly -10% in two days and counting, nothing short of a complete disaster on the making and obviously sending shockwaves in european equities for the open. MAJOR ALERTS triggered in DAX. A break below 1074x [check] could signal the opening of pandoras box in equities across the world[check].
Although we completed (and cleared in some in my case) the main targets for the swings, we failed by inches to technically complete the exact main mid term (and short in some cases) targets. Equities hammered with DAX saved by the opening bell in Frankfurt.

Strong long term value buyers near 1000x as widely expected, pretty much the meat of the move gone but the lows are far from set and naked for the next few sessions. Same in US equities but that is for later with NY. ...

Flat here on the strong opening range as i didn't have enough positions open to ride the last leg (unexpected huge leg overnight ....) but actively looking for the soft sell test again in the next few sessions...


Quoting sisse
i... Short term Fundamentals are still not really solved yet to support GOLD: We are in the brink of potential RISK leg via equities and oil....as Gold can shoot to 1180.xx [in play]without invalidating the mid term swing sub $1000.xx....
GOLD overshoot on fundamentals and risk as expected but failed to test the max extension 1180x.xx after the wild opening range in Europe which opened the chance also for a soft quick in and out play intraday in the next sessions to test the highs. Tracking closely 1152.xx until NY.

Quoting sisse

  1. Confuse FED ... test of key 1.114x [check] in a tradable exhaustion leg 1.127x [check] with max ext 1.134x for the RATES play in September.

Finally Euro, easy and soft play as it is just moving as collateral of the board. Cleared 1.127x overnight but left the max extension open after the wild opening range. Nothing to do there as the meat of the leg is already bank so the easy and obvious trailing to fill or kill the final extension...

After the rather important last moves across the board. Expecting lot of jitters across the board (lots of real hands must got hammered in equites guarantee !!!) and wide volatility until the sharp move settle....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,671
  • Aug 21, 2015 9:09am Aug 21, 2015 9:09am
Markets trying hard to form a floor in the opening range but they look heavy very heavy. OIL and Equities look particularly weak and they will need the "invisible hand" of free markets to shake out and find some foot. On currencies, nothing to see as both euro and dollar are in carry mode from the macro moves outside ...

Pretty much in "panic control mode" across the board and without further surprises we will end up in a choppy weekly closing session after Europe goes home.

Nothing to see or do at these levels so same trades, same levels, same all until further data ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,672
  • Aug 21, 2015 9:37am Aug 21, 2015 9:37am
Watch out the floor!!!! in Equities and oil could get massacre below ...if they don't step in here we could be witnessing a major weekly storm ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,673
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:14am Aug 21, 2015 10:14am
Quoting sisse
Confuse FED / Slightly Dovish for a test of key 1.114x [check] in a tradable exhaustion leg 1.127x [check] with max ext 1.134x [check] for the RATES play in September.
.....and Game, Set and Match in the Euro !!!. Clearing 1.134x target a few ticks below (not interested to micro manage this any further on a Friday afternoon with London going home). 1.105x ---> 1.134x simple and clean leg completed.... well done to all that rode it too....

All eyes back in US Equities and Oil ticking below $40 for the HEADLINES. S&P already breached 2000.xx and we are in shooting distance of main mid term target ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,674
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:24am Aug 21, 2015 10:24am
So did the Fed screw the pooch or what?
  • #136,675
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:35am Aug 21, 2015 10:35am
Quoting sisse
S&P already breached 2000.xx and we are in shooting distance of main mid term target .... sisse
Hi sisse, how long is mid-term and what's your target? thanks

Quoting Pharm0r
So did the Fed screw the pooch or what?
I think the Chinese screwed the Fed Anyway, I thought the Fed was created to screw the American people
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #136,676
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:37am Aug 21, 2015 10:37am
now a days GBPUSD is stupid currency pair
  • #136,677
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:38am Aug 21, 2015 10:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
So did the Fed screw the pooch or what?
No mate ...look at the Markets (the whole world is tracking ....except in FF ...je je je where most don't even realise whats going) ...we are in MAJOR moves across the board (but not in currencies as they are just on the back back back sit on this).

First risk leg since a few years and to be honest with you we may have just witnessed the first RMT leg !!! in between (bastards are a lot smarter than you expect). GOLD, OIL and now EQUITES completed first RMT targets (Equities still have some crumbs left but 90% of the expected move is done)....

Now the FED can hike SEP or even DEC its "irrelevant"!!! ...bastards already cleared first HIKE!!! and outsmarted the wishy-washy FED (FED is in deep shit now with markets at these levels...but they deserved given the lack of north in their comments)... guess (and as expected) which one is the LAST DOMINO that will fall ???? .... Dollar but that will actually come with the ACTUAL HIKE announcement.

In simple words, we are just witnessing the first RMT play across the board and more importantly for currencies, they just give us the Dollar tradable map for hikes and the rest of the year.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,678
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:43am Aug 21, 2015 10:43am
FWIW I don't think the Fed will raise this year now, the markets will die if they do.....maybe that's the plan, then the Fed will do even more QE....I see assholes like Blanchflower are calling for it already, ho hum
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #136,679
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:47am Aug 21, 2015 10:47am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} BTFD has to stop working sometime.. You know what they say- suckers don't die, new suckers come along to replace the old ones.. That's the way the marketworks. I don't see any reason to be buying the dips now Nasdaq has been so kind to me {image}
Thank you all the suckers who helped this happen , all those who bought the dip lol

Quoting sisse
{quote} No mate ...look at the Markets (the whole world is tracking ....except in FF ...je je je where most don't even realise whats going) ...we are in MAJOR moves across the board (but not in currencies as they are just on the back back back sit on this). First risk leg since a few years and to be honest with you we may have just witnessed the first RMT leg !!! in between (bastards are a lot smarter than you expect). GOLD, OIL and now EQUITES completed first RMT targets (Equities still have some crumbs left but 90% of the expected move is done).......
THIS IS WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT YESTERDAY ABOUT A MELTDOWN IN EQUITIES

Thank you for making me see things objectively and also your brilliant analysis as always
  • #136,680
  • Aug 21, 2015 10:54am Aug 21, 2015 10:54am
Quoting mrcreosote
FWIW I don't think the Fed will raise this year now, the markets will die if they do.....maybe that's the plan, then the Fed will do even more QE....I see assholes like Blanchflower are calling for it already, ho hum
From a macroeconomic perspective It will be a mistake. A very bad one If they don't. I personally will shift to very bearish in the global economy for the next year if they don't. It will be policy suicide if they don't hike this year ....

I still think FED will get a hike next month. The pressure will be off now that most of the bastards are clearing but ESPECIALLY long term real money will be start pushing for normalization and a clear north from the FED after the latest moves (real long term money don't like panic and wild volatility like this) ... Only the perma-doves and the short term fund mangers will be pushing for more free money and no hikes ...

we'll see in a few.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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