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  • #136,641
  • Aug 20, 2015 7:06am Aug 20, 2015 7:06am
We tested yesterdays inflation news with the FED minutes and that was enough to smash the dollar. Inflation entered play via subsequent events with oil and China in light of the printed minutes, so that looks like it's weighing on the timing of September hikes for now. Standing aside on E/U either way until further notice.

I am planning a long term trade on NZD/JPY, but waiting for a decent trigger which could take a while. A clean monthly close below 81.40 can start things off and we'll see were we go from there. It also has to resolve 79.87 just below but I'm betting that won't be too much of headache. Failing that another test of 83.40 is on the cards, but without momentum trying for a very aggressive early entry.
  • #136,642
  • Aug 20, 2015 9:44am Aug 20, 2015 9:44am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Personally I'm sitting on my hands until 114x in Gold (which coincides nicely with the 50% fib) before a major leg down to test sub 1000 which should be defended heavily.
Been waiting weeks to short gold at resistance 1154.7.. Not far away atm
  • #136,643
  • Edited 10:40am Aug 20, 2015 10:24am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the european session. A calm and simple session across the board, European equity markets trying to form some intraday floor but the odds of succeeding looks bleak without the US on board. Map pretty simple until London goes home: A break below in equites will carry euro to break to the 1.12xx (there are macro stops stacked on the early 1.12xx handle) ...failure its back to chop zone.... The usual no break, no shake in the euro ....so nothing to see until NY shows the digested reaction to the FOMC yesterday.... sisse

Maybe rates will not be raised at all this year?
The DAX and equities are looking very bad.
I am starting to wonder if we are on a verge of a global "meltdown" in equities fueled by China panic.
a 20-30 % healthy much needed market correction in equities is possible if this scenario unfolds (from the yearly highs..)
  • #136,644
  • Aug 20, 2015 10:50am Aug 20, 2015 10:50am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Maybe rates will not be raised at all this year? The DAX and equities are looking very bad. I am starting to wonder if we are on a verge of a global "meltdown" in equities fueled by China panic. a 20-30 % healthy much needed market correction in equities is possible if this scenario unfolds
hmm, Im actually wondering the same as the situation does not look good at all. Very interesting times. Actually concerning the rates. My absolutely personal feeling is that they should normalize the rates as soon as possible because once the crisis comes (we know it will and it has been seven years now so I think its legitimate to presume it will happen sooner than later) the CBs are going to be in big trouble - left with extremelly acomodative policy and no tools to fight - and the consequences may be tramendous. I know its well known argument but I would say its also very serious argument (If it was supposed to happen - even the legitimicy of the CB´s existence may be questioned)!

Quoting sisse
China crumbling in front of our eyes. Nearly -10% in two days and counting, nothing short of a complete disaster on the making and obviously sending shockwaves in european equities for the open. MAJOR ALERTS triggered in DAX. A break below 1074x could signal the opening of pandoras box in equities across the world. For today, all eyes in inflation and the FED as there are the last major inflation numbers before September Rate decision. Only delaying rates could save the day for Equities. .. sisse
Quoting sisse
{quote} thanks for the kind words... ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ ---- ---- ------ Super important session across the board with key changes in outlooks that have been holding for a while: 1. Oil hammered and unlocking PANIC LEG to $36.xx and extension $26.4x this year !!!. This is a massive game changer in my books and it will have an impact not only in equities across the world but in the FED and BOE rates decisions. ... sisse
Therefore Sisse, do you see the recent equities moves only as a reaction to Oil price and they will stabilize soon or is the Pandora box opened and we going to see some ugly things happen? Ehn, do not want to force you to do futurology Just really interested if you have some thoughts cuz these moves definitely do not happen every day!

Thank you.
  • #136,645
  • Edited 11:02am Aug 20, 2015 10:51am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Maybe rates will not be raised at all this year?
Well odds are still heavily align for a hike this year (nearly 90% consensus in latest estimates after the Minutes for 1 hike and 50% for 2 hikes) so don't get overwhelm by the short term main stream media headlines as the doves as expected since last NFP has been on a rampage ...

We'll get the hawkish talking heads back after this weekend .... basically follow the numbers and cut the noise. Next GDP/NFP combo overshooting and you will see a sharp move to the other side before the FED decision, etc, etc ....

---> My opinion from a strictly economics point of view (not trading) its that the FED will commit suicide if they don't hike this year. Even kicking the can to September will be already crossing the line and the price and risk to pay overstaying with low rates will be more costly than the short term negative effect of first hikes ....

Quote
The DAX and equities are looking very bad. I am starting to wonder if we are on a verge of a global "meltdown" in equities fueled by China panic. a 20-30 % healthy much needed market correction in equities is possible if this scenario unfolds

I think I mentioned early this year here but IMO the DAX break above 11400 earlier this year was the classical MANIC equities leg with everybody blindly jumping on board (QE/negative rates and US hikes fears) without any support on macro fundamentals.

As always on a manic move, only the bastards will squeeze the ride while the average JOE investor and the real business and economy will just get the crumbs if any of a leg like this....

The current leg in european equities I wouldn't call it global meltdown, just a natural due pullback to a more inline levels with economic reality. 1000x is the area when ECB announced QE which seems like both the technical and fundamental area for a pullback for the mid and long term wave to recovery.

In the last Quarter, the EZ macro numbers have improve significantly (except Greece obviously) especially in the most affected countries during the crisis (Ireland, Spain and to lesser extend Portugal) while liquidity risks and baking fears has almost evaporated putting all the ingredients in place for the long term recovery ....

Sure we must track China as it's getting out of control. It definitively can trigger a global domino beyond the short term impact but for now we are not there yet at all despite the main media headlines.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,646
  • Aug 20, 2015 11:14am Aug 20, 2015 11:14am
Quoting sisse
.... Map pretty simple until London goes home: A break below in equites will carry euro to break to the 1.12xx [check] (there are macro stops stacked on the early 1.12xx handle [in play]) ...failure its back to chop zone....
...and that was it for the european session. As expected DAX broke down intraday and euro followed for a test on the 1.12xx handle but we couldn't crack yet the strong cluster of stops on the highs...

Back to the US for the rest of the day.

US equities only equity market in the world still holding a break down. All eyes 2053.xx(S&P for reference), a break down will align US equities with the rest of the world and will trigger momentum across the board ...otherwise chop zone until the roll....

For the euro nothing new ...no break no shake ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,647
  • Aug 20, 2015 11:19am Aug 20, 2015 11:19am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I edited it Loading a basket full of shorts. It got the last 1/4 of my previous shorts for positive pips, no worries here hombre.
Had to launch a rescue mission for my underwater shorts
  • #136,648
  • Aug 20, 2015 12:03pm Aug 20, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well odds are still heavily align for a hike this year (nearly 90% consensus in latest estimates after the Minutes for 1 hike and 50% for 2 hikes) so don't get overwhelm by the short term main stream media headlines as the doves as expected since last NFP has been on a rampage ... We'll get the hawkish talking heads back after this weekend .... basically follow the numbers and cut the noise. Next GDP/NFP combo overshooting and you will see a sharp move to the other side before the FED decision, etc, etc .... ---> My opinion from a strictly...
Here is just some of my thoughts with the fact that my family have a background in steel business in Asia
As Sisse mentioned here so many times, FED hikes is a must and it will affect the whole world not just the US and EU
FED hikes imho is the pain killer for current situation in Asia. Fed delaying hikes have pushed East Asia to the edge of a currency war along with crisis the just like 1997. Producers in this area is living through the hardest time with the iron ore crisis along with copper and many other commodities, the fundamental point is that the longer FED on pause the longer commodity price is kept consolidating and it has so much risk that producer cant continue to buy them. Cause in practice, it usually take an average of 1 month to ship iron ore overseas and we are sure as hell how price could react in one month.
>>>>Fed Hikes will send a shockwave in short term but until normalisation of rate, in may be about 2 years, it will build a very long term bottom in commodity price and Asia could manage to get away from current situation. And because this is the first time in 7 years that Fed hikes rate. The first THREE hikes is important. The closer the time between hikes the less painful it gets in medium term for Asia
  • #136,649
  • Aug 20, 2015 12:16pm Aug 20, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Had to launch a rescue mission for my underwater shorts
I hate having to do rescue missions. I feel for you. Keep those stops tight on the rescuers so they don't go under with the others. For what it's worth (hindsight will tell us), price action looks like someone (prob market makers from my understanding) is keeping EU afloat thru the end of the day to eat as many shorts as possible. I think we need at least a small retracement (today's low to high measured move) to get ready for next up.
defense wins championships
  • #136,650
  • Aug 20, 2015 12:29pm Aug 20, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting seemoore
{quote} I hate having to do rescue missions. I feel for you. Keep those stops tight on the rescuers so they don't go under with the others. For what it's worth (hindsight will tell us), price action looks like someone (prob market makers from my understanding) is keeping EU afloat thru the end of the day to eat as many shorts as possible. I think we need at least a small retracement (today's low to high measured move) to get ready for next up.
No worries bro, I can lose them all and be fine. Don't like to give the bastards anything though
  • #136,651
  • Aug 20, 2015 12:59pm Aug 20, 2015 12:59pm
Quoting diggo
{quote} Been waiting weeks to short gold at resistance 1154.7.. Not far away atm
Just joining your position. If we dont get some major panic-risk mode trading through equities, 1154.XX is the place to short if we get lets say at least today D close under (see chart).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #136,652
  • Aug 20, 2015 1:55pm Aug 20, 2015 1:55pm
Quoting TuTang
... Fed delaying hikes have pushed East Asia to the edge of a currency war along with crisis the just like 1997. Producers in this area is living through the hardest time with the iron ore crisis along with copper and many other commodities, the fundamental point is that the longer FED on pause the longer commodity price is kept consolidating and it has so much risk that producer can't continue to buy them...
Interesting view from the Asia perspective. I kind of agree with your view on the implications of FED and commodities.
Quoting chester123
{quote} Just joining your position. If we dont get some major panic-risk mode trading through equities, 1154.XX is the place to short if we get lets say at least today D close under (see chart). {image}
It definitively looks tempting from a Technical point of view but I pass for now. Short term Fundamentals are still not really solved yet to support GOLD: We are in the brink of potential RISK leg via equities and oil. The last inflation #s round in US and Europe are down and to put the cream on top Hikes expectations are slowly starting to shift away from Sep....

Basically I'll give it a bit more room and time for the latest development to settle, as Gold can shoot to 1180.xx without invalidating the mid term swing sub $1000.xx....

----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----

Quoting sisse
US equities only equity market in the world still holding a break down. All eyes 2053.xx [check] (S&P for reference), a break down will align US equities with the rest of the world and will trigger momentum across the board ...otherwise chop zone until the roll....
More important for today. Watch out for US equities unlocking a deep leg down on the closing range...WE already lost 2053.xx in the session for a yummy ride intraday but if we lose the lows !!! ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,653
  • Aug 20, 2015 2:38pm Aug 20, 2015 2:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Interesting view from the Asia perspective. I kind of agree with your view on the implications of FED and commodities. {quote} It definitively looks tempting from a Technical point of view but I pass for now. Short term Fundamentals are still not really solved yet to support GOLD: We are in the brink of potential RISK leg via equities and oil. The last inflation #s round in US and Europe are down and to put the cream on top Hikes expectations are slowly starting to shift away from Sep.... Basically I'll give it a bit more room...
Agrrrr, absolutely true! Thank you for the comment Sisse - gotta learn to be more patient (Most importantly when the technicals and fundamentals are not alligned (in the short term in this case)!!! This "patience problem" is almost the most difficult part of this whole trading madness
  • #136,654
  • Aug 20, 2015 2:48pm Aug 20, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No worries bro, I can lose them all and be fine. Don't like to give the bastards anything though
FEITCTAJ H1
  • #136,655
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:03pm Aug 20, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting sisse
More important for today. Watch out for US equities unlocking a deep leg down on the closing range...WE already lost 2053.xx[check]in the session for a yummy ride intraday but if we lose the lows [check] !!! ....
...uff what a closing range !!! and what a superb day !!! ...as expected the double whammy completed with US equties losing foot in the closing range ... A clean sweep in the close and S&P getting hammered. We are in IMMINENT RISK LEG ALERTS across the board with Equities and Oil with imminent breaks triggered and GOLD aligned in risk off for a potential "RED Friday" ...

Well done to all who manage to play the double round DAX/ES today ...here closing a superb day ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,656
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:19pm Aug 20, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} .... Sure we must track China as it's getting out of control. It definitively can trigger a global domino beyond the short term impact but for now we are not there yet at all despite the main media headlines. sisse
I am trading the way there...
Sometimes it's all about feeling and intuition.

Another superb day for me thanks to DAX and NASDAQ , AWESOME SISSE ANALYSIS AND LEVELS and my intuition.

For me- NASDAQ 4350 is the gate to further panic manic downward continuation $$$
  • #136,657
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:32pm Aug 20, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} FEITCTAJ H1
Got me
  • #136,658
  • Aug 20, 2015 3:52pm Aug 20, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting PIP Lover
NASDAQ 4350 is the gate to further panic manic downward continuation $$$
BTFD has been the plan that works since olden times....no sure bet that it will change now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,659
  • Aug 20, 2015 4:01pm Aug 20, 2015 4:01pm
...and we rolled .... not really surprising the close in EURO, as expected just carry of the main moves across the board .... Nothing new, same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,660
  • Aug 20, 2015 5:59pm Aug 20, 2015 5:59pm
Anybody here with 99.99% Modelling quality tick data?
I backtested my ea on m1 chart from 1971 to 1994(from $500 to $15,851,776), but its always showing me 24.91% Modelling quality which i think i need to improve...
The m5 Modelling quality is 34.97%(Poor I think)..?
But, when i started testing it on m5, the profit went from $10000 to $10 billions of dollars, which i think the tester is lying(I have my reason for saying the "lying"), my reason for the "lying" is that Mt4 Profit factor, Gross profit and gross loss looks unbelievable.
Gross loss is a million $+.
This stuff is really crashing my PC(It's a low memory PC)....
I want to share my ea with someone that will backtest and show me the result on teamviewer...
The ea is a big project which i'm just in the Phase 2(Still going to Phase 5).
Anybody who can help should please talk to me here or on PM and i will send ea to him.

Thanks,
Noobshow.
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