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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #11,221
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:32am Aug 21, 2015 2:32am
Quoting atraderfx
{quote} I suspect we look back on this as one of the biggest stop loss / gaps runs for years - sure I assume we all expect more down into the end of the year. but seriously DAX dropped 116xx to 10050 in 2 weeks over summer...
China and Taiwan did something similar so this is a worldwide correction. Oil prices dropping and currencies dropping is a sign of ugly things to come. Think about it.. Russia's currency went from around 31 to about 65. They literally lost half of their purchasing power. Saudi Arabia lost half its income from when oil was over $100 per barrel to being around $40 now so those extra funds that were buying stocks will not be buying stocks any more.
  • #11,222
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:33am Aug 21, 2015 2:33am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Something must be wrong with my Forex account then.. {image}
My FX broker also closes overnight and opened above 10100 thank god as my stop losses were at 10100. overnight futures were low of 10052.x

Look at this RIP off the lows this morning - Bas...rds... killed everyone and take it back up
  • #11,223
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:33am Aug 21, 2015 2:33am
Quoting Dano12
dax close go gap
I just entered short. I believe it is just closing gap. Best shortage opportunity now.
  • #11,224
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:36am Aug 21, 2015 2:36am
Quoting atraderfx
{quote} My FX broker also closes overnight and opened above 10100 thank god as my stop losses were at 10100. overnight futures were low of 10052.x Look at this RIP off the lows this morning - Bas...rds... killed everyone and take it back up
I went short at 10,380 riding it down
  • #11,225
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:37am Aug 21, 2015 2:37am
Can't remember when I put that ? mark for this level, but it was a while ago. So now the ? is, is this the bottom, or do we pull back before the crash returns down towards 9000?

ps - one thing I will add, is that the moving averages are not favourable for a rally back up to new highs the way they were a year ago when we fell to 8,355 - they are much more bearish this time around.
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  • #11,226
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:41am Aug 21, 2015 2:41am
My View is that the low was actually the 10330 and the GAP below was just the GAP below washout and while there is now massive damage done to all charts and traders psychology there is room for a move up - perhaps we do get the dip below 10000 in August to 9870 range - can't rule that out. I was hoping that the break of 10000 would come in September / October. and then we hit the real lows into Dec or 7500-8000.

There must be a lot of pain out there now and accounts blown while people have been sipping coolaids on the beach
  • #11,227
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:48am Aug 21, 2015 2:48am
Quoting atraderfx
My There must be a lot of pain out there now and accounts blown while people have been sipping coolaids on the beach
I doubt you'd find many people who are that careless sipping cocktails on the beach!
  • #11,228
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:48am Aug 21, 2015 2:48am
Wish it would drop faster
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  • #11,229
  • Aug 21, 2015 2:53am Aug 21, 2015 2:53am
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  • #11,230
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:00am Aug 21, 2015 3:00am
Quoting Dano12
{image}
Having a hard time reading your chart. You calling a bounce or drop?
  • #11,231
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:04am Aug 21, 2015 3:04am
Quoting cat
{quote} I doubt you'd find many people who are that careless sipping cocktails on the beach!
I already know of 2 people that have been stop gapped last night and 1 was on Holidays on the beach and he did not think that much of it 2days ago. that it would break below 10400 and positions closed this morning. so it happens and it happened to me in August with Gold before - so I don't trade that junk paper anymore and I always trade smaller when on holidays.
  • #11,232
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:06am Aug 21, 2015 3:06am
We should find some resistance on the 10m 200ema which is also today's CP @ 10,410, but I'd be really surprised to see new lows today, so I think either we'll range, or we can push up to erase all of yesterday's losses.
  • #11,233
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:07am Aug 21, 2015 3:07am
Quoting atraderfx
{quote} I already know of 2 people that have been stop gapped last night and 1 was on Holidays on the beach and he did not think that much of it 2days ago. that it would break below 10400 and positions closed this morning. so it happens and it happened to me in August with Gold before - so I don't trade that junk paper anymore and I always trade smaller when on holidays.
Oh I'm sure there are plenty such people, but serious traders? I doubt it.
  • #11,234
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:09am Aug 21, 2015 3:09am
Quoting cat
We should find some resistance on the 10m 200ema which is also today's CP @ 10,410, but I'd be really surprised to see new lows today, so I think either we'll range, or we can push up to erase all of yesterday's losses.
Today is Friday, you think people would sell or buy before closing? I was thinking that no one would want to hold on to anything over the weekend with this kind of volatility taking place. If we go up and finish up then it would have to be from Government Stimulus funds kicking in to intervene and stabilize markets.
  • #11,235
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:10am Aug 21, 2015 3:10am
Quoting atraderfx
{quote} My FX broker also closes overnight and opened above 10100 thank god as my stop losses were at 10100. overnight futures were low of 10052.x Look at this RIP off the lows this morning - Bas...rds... killed everyone and take it back up
Hello everyone
bit of a lurker here
for my 2 cents, be it where everyone thinks the low has printed, it also bounced ( off my chart ) from the 76.4 fib 10094
fib, which was created from Januarys low, to Aprils high

cheers
  • #11,236
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:15am Aug 21, 2015 3:15am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Having a hard time reading your chart. You calling a bounce or drop?
market geometry equality of waves
  • #11,237
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:17am Aug 21, 2015 3:17am
Quoting cat
{quote} Oh I'm sure there are plenty such people, but serious traders? I doubt it.
Ah Yeah - 1 of them runs a trading subscription service and he was gapped twice, went long at the end of the market yesterday - he put in a 50 point stop on the DAX and of course was gapped for 200+. basically the view was capitulation low yesterday.
  • #11,238
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:18am Aug 21, 2015 3:18am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Today is Friday, you think people would sell or buy before closing? I was thinking that no one would want to hold on to anything over the weekend with this kind of volatility taking place. If we go up and finish up then it would have to be from Government Stimulus funds kicking in to intervene and stabilize markets.
I think the level most Dax traders have been eyeing for the last few days has been the weekly 100sma, and when that was hit, most of them would have cashed in their positions which accounts for this strong rally. As to how many of them will now buy, remains to be seen, but we've seen time and time again that once a big level of support has been found, things can turn round in the blink of an eye.
  • #11,239
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:21am Aug 21, 2015 3:21am
[quote=atraderfx;8448088]{quote} Ah Yeah - 1 of them runs a trading subscription service...

my point exactly...
  • #11,240
  • Aug 21, 2015 3:23am Aug 21, 2015 3:23am
I opened new short positions at 10,395 just now
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