Thoughts on "smart traders"
FOMC minutes on 19 August. Hidden threat.
Minute Fed, published on August 19 did not bring the market a clear signal is already opened when there is no clear signal - hence the protocols "doves." Theoretically, it should have been waiting to drop the interest rate increase in December, but do not hurry.
Not without mysticism time of publication. Markets received data for 22 minutes before the official publication. For 14 minutes before the publication of the Federal Reserve announced a violation of the embargo on the publication and published the protocol. The Fed did not explain how the embargo on publication has been violated.
Nevertheless, the responsibility for the premature publication have undertaken CNBC and Bloomberg, who "accidentally sent the information." Not without political noise, as Republicans decried operating important confidential data from the Central Bank.
So protocols recognize the growth of the labor market, but are worried about the problems in China, which could pull inflation down. It seems all the cards in the deck have been calculated, and the markets remain open only two: inflation and China. But do not forget a little detail ...
Minutes sufficiently "mature" and describes the meeting in July (http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...dars.htm#22808) hard to call it over the key data. By September, the mood Fed FOMC members still "oh, how may change," and we are already seeing such trends for an interview and speech thereof.
Let's see the reaction.
If at the beginning of August CME Group believed that with a probability of 92% rate in September will remain unchanged, it is now such expectations were reduced to 55% and 45% of that rate will rise to 0.5%.
CIBC relies in September because they believe that in July FOMC could not be the "hawk", as it is today.
BNP increase the chance of September from 10% to 23%.
Yet in spite of the oil quotations, a major factor is the factor of reducing inflation.
Since October 2014, the month when the incentive program was phased out QE3, the markets went into standby mode to increase the interest rate the Fed FOMC.
The original opening was such
The interest rate will be increased by six months from the date of completion of QE3
Time expired in June 2015, and in connection with the additional turmoil (weather, weak start in 2015, the decline in inflation, together with oil, China, Greece) rate remained unchanged at 0.25%.
In the summer of market expectations gradually flowed within the range of "September - December," and it would seem that the probability of a rate hike in December, above, but the market - quite nervous substance, September still in the game.
FOMC minutes on 19 August. Hidden threat.
Minute Fed, published on August 19 did not bring the market a clear signal is already opened when there is no clear signal - hence the protocols "doves." Theoretically, it should have been waiting to drop the interest rate increase in December, but do not hurry.
Not without mysticism time of publication. Markets received data for 22 minutes before the official publication. For 14 minutes before the publication of the Federal Reserve announced a violation of the embargo on the publication and published the protocol. The Fed did not explain how the embargo on publication has been violated.
Nevertheless, the responsibility for the premature publication have undertaken CNBC and Bloomberg, who "accidentally sent the information." Not without political noise, as Republicans decried operating important confidential data from the Central Bank.
So protocols recognize the growth of the labor market, but are worried about the problems in China, which could pull inflation down. It seems all the cards in the deck have been calculated, and the markets remain open only two: inflation and China. But do not forget a little detail ...
Minutes sufficiently "mature" and describes the meeting in July (http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...dars.htm#22808) hard to call it over the key data. By September, the mood Fed FOMC members still "oh, how may change," and we are already seeing such trends for an interview and speech thereof.
Let's see the reaction.
If at the beginning of August CME Group believed that with a probability of 92% rate in September will remain unchanged, it is now such expectations were reduced to 55% and 45% of that rate will rise to 0.5%.
CIBC relies in September because they believe that in July FOMC could not be the "hawk", as it is today.
BNP increase the chance of September from 10% to 23%.
Yet in spite of the oil quotations, a major factor is the factor of reducing inflation.
Since October 2014, the month when the incentive program was phased out QE3, the markets went into standby mode to increase the interest rate the Fed FOMC.
The original opening was such
The interest rate will be increased by six months from the date of completion of QE3
Time expired in June 2015, and in connection with the additional turmoil (weather, weak start in 2015, the decline in inflation, together with oil, China, Greece) rate remained unchanged at 0.25%.
In the summer of market expectations gradually flowed within the range of "September - December," and it would seem that the probability of a rate hike in December, above, but the market - quite nervous substance, September still in the game.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
. Do you trade manually with one-click or use any EA?
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