EURUSD

Likely to bail if breaking down

I am short a breakdown is fine, inventories later, been a bit more volatile just recently on that we shall see

Thanks for catching.

For people without a subscription:

Raising Rates Now Would Be a Mistake
With inflation so low, higher rates will push the economy away from the Fed’s price and employment goals.
By
NARAYANA KOCHERLAKOTA

I participate in the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve. In that capacity, Im often asked by members of the public about the biggest danger facing the economy. My answer is that monetary policy itself poses the biggest danger.
Many observers have called for the FOMC to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates in the near term. But such a course would create profound economic risks for the U.S. economy.
Why would a near-term tightening of monetary policy be so problematic? Because given the prevailing economic conditions, higher interest rates would push the economy away from the FOMCs economic goals, not toward them.

Congress has mandated that the Fed promote price stability and maximum employment. The FOMC has translated its price-stability mandate into a target 2% inflation rate, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index. Inflation has run consistently below that objective for more than three years and is currently at 0.3%.

The outlook is for more of the same. Most private forecasters do not see inflation reaching 2% for the next two years. Government bond yields are consistent with that same subdued inflation outlook. In June the FOMCs own staff forecast was that inflation would remain below the committees 2% target until the 2020s.
The U.S. inflation outlook thus provides no justification for policy tightening at this juncture. Given that outlook, the FOMC should ease, not tighten, monetary policy by, for example, buying more long-term assets or by reducing the interest rate that it pays on excess reserves held by banks. Along these lines, the board of directors of the Minneapolis Fed has for the past few months been recommending a reduction in the interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges banks for discount window loans.
Now, this is not to say that increasing the federal-funds rate by a mere quarter of one percentage point, as many advise, would in and of itself have a huge direct impact on the U.S. economy. But even a small change toward tighter policy would send a strong message to financial markets.
If the Fed raises interest rates when inflation is so far below target, market participants and other members of the public could well conclude that the FOMC has implicitly lowered its inflation goal. That, in turn, poses two serious risks to the economy.
The first risk is near-term. Financial decisions depend on realthat is, net-of-inflationinterest rates. If the public believes the Fed has lowered its inflation goal, all real interest rates in the U.S. will be higher.
This will discourage people from borrowing money for homes and autos. It would likely raise the dollars value relative to foreign currencies, making U.S. goods and services less attractive to households and firms here and abroad. Prices of homes and other assets would also feel downward pressure under higher interest rates. All of these changes would likely discourage spending and create a drag on U.S. economic activity and employment growth.
The second risk is longer-term. In late 2014 the FOMC ended its asset purchase program, even as the outlook for inflation was sliding further below the 2% goal. Financial markets logically interpreted this step as meaning that the FOMC had tacitly lowered its longer-term inflation objectives from the 2% goal established in January 2012. If the committee were to tighten monetary policy again by raising the federal-funds rate in 2015, when the inflation outlook has changed little since late 2014, markets would likely respond similarly.
Moreover, by again setting policy in a direction opposite its stated goals, the Fed would diminish the credibility of those goals. As we have seen in Japan over the past two decades, when the public comes to doubt a central banks commitment to its goals, the economy can land in a permanent low-interest-rate trap. The central bank is then much less able to fight recessions effectively. Unfortunately, as we have also seen in Japan, such traps are extremely difficult to escape.
I am confident that the time will come when economic conditions will be appropriate for the FOMC to raise the federal-funds rate from its current low level. But that time is not now. Tightening monetary policy when inflation is projected to be so low is a step in the wrong direction.
Mr. Kocherlakota is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and a participant in the Federal Open Market Committee.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/raising-...ake-1439939500

here we are.. h/h is a sign.. if we get a h/h, on a pullback after the hh.. 1045/1016 may provide a long entry..void with a LL

Started accumulating long positions, will get out if it gets out my hand.

what does that mean? where is your SL?

I am planning to get out if it goes below 970.

What position you have taken ? what is you risk level ? Are you long too and want to know my s/l ?

LL or higher.. break either and a shot to enter at 1045 ish may happen. i would be more bearish had it closed below 1027 or -1023.
it still hasn't made a HH.. i have a little long also with 1015 stop

stop talking like you are some guru and that I need to copy you...

I am merely seeking clarity of your position because you post stuff like, just made on dip, and will get out if it gets out of hand, meaningless posts that give nobody any information, but of course you will come back to claim some credit later in the day no matter which way the wind blows...

and now I have you stop 1.0970 so thanks for that

Thanks Gator, in my 4 hr chart, I have 1020 one level, then 970 too. I fixed stop loss, but may get out quickly too depending on PA.

i quit worrying about a hike several months back..others will have that affect by cutting.. if u.s. raises now, oil may drop another 10$. the world needs a reset.. and the u.s. dont need imported commodities as much as germany, japan, china, or s korea. so prices will commodity prices soften more.. the u.s. has a lot of commodities.. even with a lower price for them.. it still cuts in others profits putting them on a ship.. so u.s.commodity producers can sell domestic commodities in the u.s. at a cheaper price than outsiders.

ny opened below yesterday's open(@1026) . ny in roll now , I wouldn't expect any other wtf move till Fomc ( I've got longs underwater)

If you will be a lot of voices for raising interest rates this year - September - December and rhetoric will not change - more swing down

Im looking for long entry here for now lets see how it reacts

SaP @ 200 daily SMA now + daily S. Should bounce, and EU + UJ still unable to push further. Am not enjoying it and hoping SaP will break. Imo current USD bear supported mostly by Xau, which is in buy. Oil is also down..so..cmon USD bulls, push it.

Maxdoom, do not follow my stop losses, have your own. It is based on my capital and lot size that I have taken.

Hm ... daily pivot getting rejected.

Out of my long positions for now. Do not want to be in any position with FOMC due.

You obviously ignore who is Max. Here, that's him. I spotted him last year when he was riding his eurusd short

Daily bears just don't want to give up