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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #2,761
  • Aug 16, 2015 6:04am Aug 16, 2015 6:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Bottom line is Iran is desperate to start selling her oil and improve economy otherwise young unemployed Iranians most likely will revolt kicking mullahs out. On this note why not keep the sanctions and accelerate the process? I am for rejecting the Nuke deal.Iranians must come to 21century and get out of 16th century tribal totalitarian mindset fueled by belief system that is already obsolete.
Many decisions made over the years in the middle east can be seen as huge mistakes. This may or may not be one but I agree with you and feel sorry for the everyday Iranians. I think if your congress rejects other countries will most likely still go through with lifting sanctions anyway. Don't know what that scenario looks like for oil prices.
  • #2,762
  • Aug 16, 2015 8:58am Aug 16, 2015 8:58am
Quoting squawk
Some good reading from John Mauldine on Energy, shale production and how the Saudi gamble has failed. Link
Good article, thanks squawk.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,763
  • Aug 16, 2015 9:37am Aug 16, 2015 9:37am
Quoting squawk
Some good reading from John Mauldine on Energy, shale production and how the Saudi gamble has failed. Link
Thks good article and interesting response

"Right now, some US shale operators can break even at $10/barrel." I highly doubt it, and would appreciate some evidence to support such a statement, a company name at least. Many shale operators are currently insolvent at $50/barrel. At most places in the Bakken,for example, transportation costs alone are more than $10/barrel....
You have dished up a giant scoop of hopium, but contrary to all the Wall Street hype you have swallowed, the cruel facts are otherwise.Fracking wells are extremely expensive, though technology is improving as you say, and the wells decline rapidly. Generally speaking, the resource itself is far more limited than you have imagined. Conventional oil production in the US did peak in 1971, and fracking will peak in the near future. The US is importing close to 10 million b/pd, so apparently the oil industry didn't get your message....
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,764
  • Edited 12:50pm Aug 16, 2015 12:38pm | Edited 12:50pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post7938752
or find the info on my thread.

 

  1. [quote=Davit;8438249]{quote} Thks good article and interesting response "Right now, some US shale operators can break even at $10/barrel." I highly doubt it, and would appreciate some evidence to support such a statement, a company name at least. Many shale operators are currently insolvent at $50/barrel. At most places in the Bakken,for example, transportation costs alone are more than $10/barrel.... You have dished up a giant scoop of hopium, but contrary to all the Wall Street hype you have swallowed, the cruel facts are otherwise.Fracking wells are extremely expensive,...[/quote]

http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-...prices-2014-11
- an article back in November 2014. Shows chart on companies where they break even.

Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,765
  • Aug 16, 2015 12:49pm Aug 16, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-...prices-2014-11 - an article back in November 2014. Shows chart on companies where they break even.
Hi G
My outlook is oil will stop falling for time being at 40.Some correction 45-50 likely very soon.I see it at 60 by Dec 2015
I generally dismiss lot of "sky is falling" type predictions.Remember Euro at 1 or even .80? Well we have not tested 105 for months despite of Greek crises and Feds threats to IR hike.I feel the same about oil.Its not about to go to nothing.It still costs to produce it.
regards
Look for UC possible short.I have 8 on it.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,766
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:38pm Aug 16, 2015 7:38pm



http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/12686...r-and-the-euro


2. Pace of hikes. It seems unlikely that the FOMC will indicate a pace of hikes aggressive enough to sustain the degree of positioning and sentiment that is currently behind the long USD trade, especially, if, as I suspect, the Fed is hiking more as avalanche protection and not because they fear economic overheating.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,767
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:41pm Aug 16, 2015 7:41pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/1...e-control.html
Attached Images
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,768
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:47pm Aug 16, 2015 7:47pm
Butterfly/bat above....more to say on this one but...
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,769
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:56pm Aug 16, 2015 7:56pm
I sense a theme here....



http://www.theguardian.com/business/...-far-from-over



Even were Bank of England governor Mark Carney able to save some face by announcing, say next February, that the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee had voted to increase base rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, subsequent rises currently forecast for the rest of 2016 – to around 2% to 2.5% – could be delayed for several years. It is possible he may finish his five-year term in 2018 without once raising rates.



Last month, Carney hinted strongly that the UK was growing robustly enough to bear at least a first step towards ending the era of cheap money. The US Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen is poised to move tentatively in the same direction.
The betting must be that a first step is all they take: with years, rather than months, before the next one.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,770
  • Aug 16, 2015 9:08pm Aug 16, 2015 9:08pm
Scott
This is what you call the "Carney Circus Show"




Quoting Mr. Scott
I sense a theme here.... http://www.theguardian.com/business/...-far-from-over Even were Bank of England governor Mark Carney able to save some face by announcing, say next February, that the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee had voted to increase base rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, subsequent rises currently forecast for the rest of 2016 to around 2% to 2.5% could be delayed for several years. It is possible he may...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,771
  • Aug 16, 2015 9:17pm Aug 16, 2015 9:17pm
Quoting gnomoneey
Scott This is what you call the "Carney Circus Show" {quote}
Knew you would like that one G.....

Memories.....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,772
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:40am Aug 17, 2015 5:40am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Butterfly/bat above....more to say on this one but... {image}
Hi Scott have similar but there is a lot up and below. Only trading the EA.
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  • #2,773
  • Aug 17, 2015 5:41am Aug 17, 2015 5:41am
Quoting Mr. Scott
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/1...e-control.html {image} {image}
All the signs of unwind are there.
  • #2,774
  • Aug 17, 2015 6:41am Aug 17, 2015 6:41am
Another good report form Erik Norland (senior eco at CME). Mainly focused on current inventory story, Crack Spread and oil storage indications (contango).

Interesting to note that Iran has a reported 40 million barrels stored at sea, could begin to hit the market early next year under the terms of the Iran nuclear pact.

Link
  • #2,775
  • Aug 17, 2015 8:21am Aug 17, 2015 8:21am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Scott have similar but there is a lot up and below. Only trading the EA. {image}
Like that one too
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,776
  • Edited 10:09am Aug 17, 2015 9:40am | Edited 10:09am
Looking for possible Cypher style setup on GN. 350 to the upside
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  • #2,777
  • Aug 17, 2015 11:59am Aug 17, 2015 11:59am
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  • #2,778
  • Aug 17, 2015 12:15pm Aug 17, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting Schickeria
{image} {image} {image}
Nice level and entry Schick, thanks for stopping by.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,779
  • Aug 17, 2015 12:27pm Aug 17, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Scott have similar but there is a lot up and below. Only trading the EA. {image}
Some EA, weekly valid bat to me....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,780
  • Aug 17, 2015 12:48pm Aug 17, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Some EA, weekly valid bat to me.... {image}
149 area would look to hold. I have shorts in from last week with last target 149. I think a break of 148 could change momentum to the downside.
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