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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #1,021
  • Aug 14, 2015 6:26am Aug 14, 2015 6:26am
Already looking forward to this. JPY to draw first blood.
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  • #1,022
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:34am Aug 14, 2015 7:34am
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
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  • #1,023
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:40am Aug 14, 2015 7:40am
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
Here we GO !!!
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  • #1,024
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:48am Aug 14, 2015 7:48am
Hello, i am looking at this thread and wondering if there is any methodology/rules i can read to follow your trades?
thx
  • #1,025
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:18am Aug 14, 2015 8:18am
Tuesday
11:30
08/18/15
GB Consumer Price Index GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,026
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:20am Aug 14, 2015 8:20am
All a good weekend!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,027
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:13am Aug 14, 2015 9:13am
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
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Nice weekend to alltoppo
  • #1,028
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:16am Aug 14, 2015 9:16am
Quoting frover
Hello, i am looking at this thread and wondering if there is any methodology/rules i can read to follow your trades? thx
good question...
  • #1,029
  • Aug 14, 2015 10:39am Aug 14, 2015 10:39am
Quoting frover
Hello, i am looking at this thread and wondering if there is any methodology/rules i can read to follow your trades? thx
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=493948

Start here.
Read the first page.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,030
  • Aug 14, 2015 10:46am Aug 14, 2015 10:46am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Investigated with the outgoing week: an interesting sign from Sweden, the Achilles heel of the dollar, closed the door Reserve Bank of Australia, a trap for the pound sterling, and not to miss the next week.
EUR
Greek Parliament "all endorsed ': MPs agreed and accepted the terms of the third package of EU assistance to the size of 85 billion. Euro.
Pay attention to the details of the Swedish CPI: -0.1% against the forecast on the fact -0.4%, which may be indicative of overcoming the problem of deflation. Although Sweden and in the euro area, but it could be a signal to dim prospects for the entire territory of the EURO in the plane of the holding period of the European QE.
Posted on Friday Final CPI euro zone (0.2% as the forecast), still it does not look like a complete solution to the problem of low inflation, but still deflationary symptoms fade into the background. There is a double signal: and no reduction, and fast "recovery" to target levels and should not be. While the markets are guided by the fact that QE will last until September 2016, did not forget to make allowances and "regular" decline in oil prices, which also put pressure on the overall CPI.
Before the ECB meeting the new information for the euro remains a minor, the main vector is a fundamental will revolve around Estimated completion QE and "small" problems.
USD
You might not notice on the chart, but in general, retail sales went into the positive zone on the market expectations of 0.4% forecast by the fact, and the negative data released last been revised upwards (from -0.3% to 0, 0%).
Achilles' heel is still inflation, which is sufficiently concerned about the market, and thus the market expectations.
China, which has resorted to devaluation of the yuan, in line with the future of the Fed's decision is a factor, "against" increasing rate.
Nevertheless, the American statistics on particles throws coins on scales in favor of an early increase in interest rates, and even despite the fact that the Non-Farm published slightly below forecasts (215K vs. 225K) - the labor market more positive than negative signal. First, data is slightly deviated from the forecasts, and the difference in 10K is suitable only for a pulse to align quotations, but no more. Second, the data still above the psychological barrier at 200K, the previous data release have been reviewed above 231K vs. 223K. Third, the unemployment rate remains at 5.3%, and in view of the fact that this indicator is "lagging", and considering the positive dynamics of applications for benefits can be assumed that the slightest approximation (and should be) to the line in the unemployment rate of 5% Not only will move closer expectations, but also will be an essential factor for the FOMC to raise the issue of the interest rate in September. There remains only one publication of Non-Farm Payrolls before the Fed meeting.
The fundamental root for the USD now - whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September, and a counterweight to answer him "strongly" favor the outlook for inflation, which was reduced from 1.3% to 1.1% for the end of 2015 (the price of oil dropped forecasts $ 58 to $ 51).
AUD
He survived, and it seems already sighed after the devaluation of the yuan. The main problem for the Australian is now becoming a state of the labor market: unemployment rate retreated to 6.3% vs. the previous 6.1% this week, followed by an explanation from official sources: the problem of weak growth and low wages. It appears in this economic cycle, we do not have a single Central Bank, which would not have mentioned incomes, an important factor in monetary policy.
Does it encourage the RBA to interest rate changes, we will know very soon, on 1 September, and until we have data from previous minutes of meetings of the Regulator, which reduced the volume of market expectations.
Previously, the issue of the upcoming interest rate cut was hot enough, but the new treatment protocol, published in early August dulled him since disappeared from the minutes of the phrase "further reduction AUD welcome and needed", which was replaced in the course description AUD, as an "adaptation to prices commodity. "
An important factor influencing the RBA is expected the Fed's decision. In view of this, the Aussie will remain undecided following any fundamental blows, expectations now will increasingly depend on the American position.
Add to this another word deputy, managing RBA Philip Lowe: "Monetary policy is not a driver of economic growth in the medium term" and you get deferred prospects for AUD.
GBP
The Bank of England remains committed to tightening of monetary policy, but it is necessary to understand that this event may not happen as quickly as we would like: the level of wages, and the derivative - the data in consumer spending, not up to par; inflation is still at the zero boundary and MPC members according to the latest reports are not so frisky ("for" increasing voted one member of the MPC, instead of "two" forward-looking).
Indicators PMI, as thermometers "business" waiting suggest to us that the UK economy has left for a break, not be amiss to recall, for some thorny road I had to go pound.
However, the second side of the coin has not been canceled. These labor market, though gone below forecasts, but they are still strong enough, for example, look at the structure of the outflow of jobs - in total, there was a reduction in the number of jobs with part-time, but the place of full-time on the contrary increased.
The main factor that will deter the Bank of England from hasty decisions - inflation, which according to forecasts of economists remains at 0% (update of consumer price index we expect on Tuesday).
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,031
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:52pm Aug 14, 2015 9:52pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Fed rate hike in September?
Almost a decade has already (in a minute!), The Fed did not resort to the method of raising interest rates in its monetary policy, but one way or another, and we will soon enter a new era of financial markets: the era of tightening monetary policy the US Federal Reserve. This is such a big event, we have decided to allocate an entire branch of information as long as the rates will not be raised.
Since October 2014, the month when the incentive program was phased out QE3, the markets went into standby mode FOMC interest rate increase by the Fed.
The original opening was such
The interest rate will be increased by six months from the date of completion of QE3
Time expired in June 2015, and in connection with the additional turmoil (weather, weak start in 2015, the fall in inflation, together with oil, China, Greece) rate remained unchanged at 0.25%.
In the summer of market expectations gradually flowed within the range of "September - December," and it would seem that the probability of a rate hike in December, above, but the market - quite nervous substance, September still in the game.

82% of economists expect a rate hike in September?

About titles such zapestrila Press: 82% of economists expect the Fed raising interest rates in September, while only 13% believe in a rate hike in December 2015.
The reason for this was the Wall Street Journal, which actually held this poll.
Is the era is coming to an end? Representatives of the Federal Open Market Committee and has long made it clear that they are ready to raise interest rates, we can be with you only a few weeks away from the turning point.
Yet not everyone is convinced that the US economy is in nonslewing point: unemployment and inflation targets have not been achieved, but a serious argument in favor of income growth. It is expected that he will pull the ears inflation soon. The issue of inflation in this case can be dismissed in the background.

Growing up or drop the dollar if the interest rate will be raised?

Everything will depend on the volume expectations that markets lay in the price of USD. We are witnessing the beginning of the year to see how the market expectations, and in some moments and "requirements" are superior, or rather say, "ahead" of the Fed. It is possible that the probability of a rate hike is priced in fully, and then can play the golden rule of "buy the rumor sell the fact" that the fact of the markets will not be enough, they always want a piece of the future: "What are your plans further, When these changes? "
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,032
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:18pm Aug 16, 2015 7:18pm
JPY Prelim GDP q/q -0.4% -0.5% 1.0%
JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 1.6% 2.2% 3.4%
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  • #1,033
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:24pm Aug 16, 2015 7:24pm
[Цитата = Топпо QQQ; 8438667] JPY Prelim ВВП кв / кв -0.4% -0.5% 1.0% JPY Prelim Индекс цен ВВП г / г 1.6% 2.2% 3.4% {} изображения [/ цитата]

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,034
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:26pm Aug 16, 2015 7:26pm
Quoting vvfish
[Цитата = Топпо qqq; 8438667] jpy prelim ВВП кв / кв -0.4% -0.5% 1.0% jpy prelim Индекс цен ВВП г / г 1.6% 2.2% 3.4% {} изображения [/ цитата]
Доброе утро и спасибо
  • #1,035
  • Aug 16, 2015 7:32pm Aug 16, 2015 7:32pm
Quoting toppo qqq
{quote} Доброе утро и спасибо
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,036
  • Aug 17, 2015 7:36am Aug 17, 2015 7:36am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,037
  • Aug 17, 2015 7:41am Aug 17, 2015 7:41am
Well done
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  • #1,038
  • Aug 17, 2015 7:56am Aug 17, 2015 7:56am
I missed USDJPY and USDCAD trades since my charts got frozen using too many memory consuming indicators.toppo
  • #1,039
  • Aug 17, 2015 8:19am Aug 17, 2015 8:19am
Quoting toppo qqq
I missed USDJPY and USDCAD trades since my charts got frozen using too many memory consuming indicators.toppo
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #1,040
  • Aug 17, 2015 12:10pm Aug 17, 2015 12:10pm
Hi guys, i see you had a good start of week! i'm waiting for tomorrow morning GBP news....let's see
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