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EURUSD

  • #1,019,421
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:23pm Aug 14, 2015 4:23pm
EUR/USD still over the support level 1.0970 until a break I am out.
  • #1,019,422
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:34pm Aug 14, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} maybe.. pa will show its plan.. another head fake to 1156 is possible before 1079 on a micro scale. i say head fake but i may be full of shit with a inside move.. a break in 1079 is the main thing (it hasn't done it and bulls are not just laying down).. that break of 1123 using a inside move indicated a 1079 test in the attempt to make 106x
week ended with a green candle with a upper 106 pip week. its green, look to the left on a weekly chart. one can see today's close is not a higher close this group.

the day ended with a close lower than yesterday and below london's close. not indicative of a strong bull.
on the bull and bear side something is brewing for a take off with this 90 pip contraction adr.

bulls still have 1079 in their favor. if not on the st at least it has a high, low, followed by a lower high atm.

that german negative gdp with china outlook has to start chipping away at it. among all fundis gdp is up with interest rates as important. its probably more important because gdp determines interest rates in the emu indirectly. gdp determines jobs health, lower gdp weighs on job inflation or even demand for workers. 3 % gdp from china may seem not so bad. it dont include those unneeded workers. thats a multiple against a economy.. the cure is a lower currency, this is a long term situation.. gdp in germany is down/negative the first 2 quarters. this before china devalued. so that third 1/4 is not looking good. signs like this is when sneaky rate cuts happen in the middle of the night
meanwhile u.s. gdp was revised up after a false down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,019,423
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:41pm Aug 14, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} week ended with a green candle with a upper 106 pip week. its green, look to the left on a weekly chart. one can see today's close is not a higher close this group. the day ended with a close lower than yesterday and below london's close. not indicative of a strong bull. on the bull and bear side something is brewing for a take off with this 90 pip contraction adr. bulls still have 1079 in their favor. if not on the st at least it has a high, low, followed by a lower high atm. that german negative gdp with china outlook has to start chipping...
Thanks for the insight. Much appreciated. Have a good weekend buddy
  • #1,019,424
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:43pm Aug 14, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Still around
yup
  • #1,019,425
  • Aug 14, 2015 4:53pm Aug 14, 2015 4:53pm
last trade shorted ucad
  • #1,019,426
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:08pm Aug 14, 2015 5:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} week ended with a green candle with a upper 106 pip week. its green, look to the left on a weekly chart. one can see today's close is not a higher close this group. the day ended with a close lower than yesterday and below london's close. not indicative of a strong bull. on the bull and bear side something is brewing for a take off with this 90 pip contraction adr. bulls still have 1079 in their favor. if not on the st at least it has a high, low, followed by a lower high atm. that german negative gdp with china outlook has to start chipping...
i really don't know what is the term of parity. i like your analysis so i need to ask you if you still think that EU will reach 1.0000?
i play longterm trade too with target 1.0000. it will be nice for me if you are in the same view.
Thanks,
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,019,427
  • Aug 14, 2015 5:38pm Aug 14, 2015 5:38pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} i really don't know what is the term of parity. i like your analysis so i need to ask you if you still think that EU will reach 1.0000? i play longterm trade too with target 1.0000. it will be nice for me if you are in the same view. Thanks,
its cheaper for high energy demand manufacturing, in north america. cheaper than china korea japan or europe. manufactures manufacture whats its cheaper to build stuff. energy in these industries such as car manufacturing is energy intensive. even where labor is higher, energy is most of the cost. china has little choice but to lower its price to sell its products. whatever the reason the ecb thinks they can fight the same problem. china just showed them the handwritten on the wall. evolve or die.
parity i hope so.. but it's never s straight line. in a year the u.s. may be looking to cut rates from the worldwide recession. this ship is a slow mover, by the time they spot the iceberg, it's already on top of it. as long a u.s..cad mex. company can open a valve and have a piped in ngas or other energy. energy that hasn't been put on a ship cost less. it's always going to be cheaper where energy is produced. europe gets some from russia at a premium. in the u.s., as much ng as used, is flared (thrown away) most dont have a memory of pre 1973. so they just dont get it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,019,428
  • Aug 14, 2015 7:25pm Aug 14, 2015 7:25pm
I trade with to ameritrade. Anyone else trade with them? They buy your position back but not at the rate it was at at the beginning of the day. So long term trades are non existent just daily. Am I wrong ???
  • #1,019,429
  • Aug 14, 2015 8:40pm Aug 14, 2015 8:40pm
Quoting iwillwait
I trade with to ameritrade. Anyone else trade with them? They buy your position back but not at the rate it was at at the beginning of the day. So long term trades are non existent just daily. Am I wrong ???
Don't really understand your question . I use ameritrade . ( tos ) If you carry a overnite , they close and reopen your trade but thats just to close their books . Its been awhile since i carried a overnite so maybe things changed but it used to be a wash . Call their help desk . I have found their customer servce to be excellant .
Hope it helps .
Peace
  • #1,019,430
  • Aug 14, 2015 9:54pm Aug 14, 2015 9:54pm
euro usd W or M ..what you see..your perceptions....view ..will be more enlighten me..happy weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,019,431
  • Aug 14, 2015 10:45pm Aug 14, 2015 10:45pm
depends on your time frame . it could be W or M

Quoting classy
euro usd W or M ..what you see..your perceptions....view ..will be more enlighten me..happy weekend {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #1,019,432
  • Aug 14, 2015 10:48pm Aug 14, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting NuNix
{quote} got 9 additional short position & hold them over the weekend. still don't have clue what is the lower level i expect to give buy signal. {image}
just close my short a bit below market closing level... looking for another setup could long or short

santai
not euphoria follower
  • #1,019,433
  • Aug 15, 2015 12:56am Aug 15, 2015 12:56am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} yup not much buying either. aud is interesting btwn. option expiries at 0.7400 keeping it under check
Interesting point. Where can I see such info about option expiration?
  • #1,019,434
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:23am Aug 15, 2015 1:23am
krugman has some things to say about china...but first LOL

This is a blog post about fanatical centrists, British debt history, and ponies.
Start with the fanatical centrists: Martin Longman flies into a well-justified rage over a “centrist” column that concedes that the Iran deal is something we really need to do, effectively concedes that the arguments of the deal’s opponents are scurrilous and irresponsible — but condemns Obama for being “dismissive” of the opponents’ arguments.
That’s something that happens to me all the time. I constantly get mail — and sometimes other peoples’ columns — condemning me, not for being wrong, but for being dismissive of the arguments of those I criticize. After all, these are important people, so they deserve to be treated with respect. Right?
Wrong.
If people consistently make logically incoherent, ignorant arguments, the duty of a commentator is to say just that — not to mislead readers by pretending that they’re actually serious and making sense. You shouldn’t make gratuitous insults — I have never, to my knowledge, declared that someone’s mother was a hamster and his father smelt of elderberries. But stupid/ignorant is as stupid/ignorant does, and influence changes nothing.
Where I’ve been getting pushback lately is in my pronouncements that the whole Republican field is talking nonsense on economic policy. That’s a terrible thing to say, I’m told. But what if it’s true? And of course it is.
Consider a couple of recent entries. Jeb Bush, the supposedly sensible candidate, has been pushing the utterly ludicrous claim that he can deliver 4 percent growth; so now Mike Huckabee is trying to one-up the debate by promising 6 percent. Well, I can beat any of them — whatever they’re promising, I promise the same, and a pony.
Meanwhile, Rand Paul is decrying the irresponsibility of U.S. fiscal management; why, we haven’t been debt-free since 1835. Clearly, disaster looms, and has been looming for 180 years. But that’s nothing: Britain hasn’t been debt-free since at least 1692:
Photo
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...magArticle.png
Credit
More than three centuries, spanning the Industrial Revolution and much more, of crippling irresponsibility. Just you wait!
Should Rand and Jeb! and Huckabee be treated with respect here? Are they outliers, and in that case which GOP contenders do deserve respect?
I know that it’s disturbing to read columns that portray the entire field as a bunch of cranks. But it would be a dereliction of duty, basically an act of dishonest reporting, to pretend that they aren’t. I’m all for respect here — but the people who deserve respect, in the form of honest assessment, are my readers.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
  • #1,019,435
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:26am Aug 15, 2015 1:26am
Quoting koainnn
{quote} i think a comet may have to hit the earth for parity to be seen this year LOL....im lookin for a bounce up to the yellow linw {image}


still think this is true lol
  • #1,019,436
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:29am Aug 15, 2015 1:29am
More than three centuries, spanning the Industrial Revolution and much more, of crippling irresponsibility. Just you wait!


i like that quote lol
  • #1,019,437
  • Aug 15, 2015 1:33am Aug 15, 2015 1:33am
well...if that consolidation on the monthly happened at the lows on an hourly chart what would everyone be doing lol
  • #1,019,438
  • Edited 1:59am Aug 15, 2015 1:43am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting iqyu5an
depends on your time frame . it could be W or M {quote}
thanks a alot for response. i guess it is better to play beteen red n blue line....now i will look for another long near blue line (see cross)until break ..IMHO
4h view .....may be W and one hr already showing sexy legs ..lol
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 4h view W.PNG Size: 178 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: one h view.PNG Size: 173 KB
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  • #1,019,439
  • Aug 15, 2015 2:50am Aug 15, 2015 2:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its cheaper for high energy demand manufacturing, in north america. cheaper than china korea japan or europe. manufactures manufacture whats its cheaper to build stuff. energy in these industries such as car manufacturing is energy intensive. even where labor is higher, energy is most of the cost. china has little choice but to lower its price to sell its products. whatever the reason the ecb thinks they can fight the same problem. china just showed them the handwritten on the wall. evolve or die. parity i hope so.. but it's never s straight...
Indeed. Currency rates determine which country has the advantage or the specialization in a given area of production.

Let's say, for every 10 autos the US manufactures, it gives up the production of 10 aircraft(1/1). On the other hand, Europe (or any global competitor) produces 10 auto, it relinquishes production of 5 of an aircraft (5/10).

Now, in terms of aircraft production, the US still has the advantage as its produces 1/1. But Europe, produces 1 aircraft, but is disadvantaged in that it cannot produce 2 autos. (10/5)

So, if the countries negotiate the range on the terms given their currency rates, provided the hypo above then: US: 10a = 10p where p = a; ratio (1:1)
And Europe produces 10p = a, where p = 2a.

Then the best terms of trade are when p = a and p = 2a; thus p = (2a +a)/2 = 1.5a

Therefore the net benefit given p = 1.5a, Europe would need to forego 5* 1.5a = 7.5a autos or NB = 20a - (7.5a + 10a) = 2.5a

US NB is 10/1.5p = 6.67p -> 20p - (6.67p + 10p) = 3.33p

That's a basic Ricardo's theory, but there are many advanced views like Porters Diamond etc. To Gator's point, international trade exists because relative price differs among nations. Each country has an endowment.
  • #1,019,440
  • Aug 15, 2015 4:42am Aug 15, 2015 4:42am
Thanks for your replied
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its cheaper for high energy demand manufacturing, in north america. cheaper than china korea japan or europe. manufactures manufacture whats its cheaper to build stuff. energy in these industries such as car manufacturing is energy intensive. even where labor is higher, energy is most of the cost. china has little choice but to lower its price to sell its products. whatever the reason the ecb thinks they can fight the same problem. china just showed them the handwritten on the wall. evolve or die. parity i hope so.. but it's never s straight...
why close them? it will hit 1.04 next month
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} just close my short a bit below market closing level... looking for another setup could long or short santai
Dangdut is a music of my country
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