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EURUSD

  • #1,018,461
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:45am Aug 12, 2015 7:45am
GBP/AUD filled my long entry - pullback to Fibo.
Now is +70 pip, but I think it can go more 40-80 pip
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #1,018,462
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:46am Aug 12, 2015 7:46am
Quoting Driver55
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post8431402 based on 1h... if open of next candle > 1.11572 .. it's not a good idea ... (at least on short term)
Have tight stop, comfortable for now at least.
The trend is your friend
  • #1,018,463
  • Edited 8:10am Aug 12, 2015 7:49am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} But the US has a much larger trade deficit with China than the EU does, meaning it buys more from them and sells less to them relative to Europe. So in principle, over the long run, a weaker yuan should be better for the US relative to Europe should it not?
You're right. A weaker Yuan will increase PPP for USD in the long run. The EURUSD long I was discussing earlier is based on two shorter term factors. CNY unwinds and the market pricing in potential impact on September liftoff for FED rate change. These aren't long term factors, just my trades yesterday and today. Once the market adjusts, we should should see the USD inflation trade pick up again.

Fundamentally, there are upside benefits with what's happening right now. I think we will see capacity start to increase in the US because of this type of increased volatility in emerging markets, and cheaper energy costs which is USD positive.

The China/US trade balance is probably heading towards a secular shift which will increase over the next 10 years. This should translate into increased infrastructure and manufacturing investment in the States. China on the other hand needs to wind down overcapacity, and is under increased competitive pressure, especially from the Mekong Delta, so their deflationary trend should continue.

If you look at the Trade Weighted Broad Index, we're positioned about where we were in terms of price when the Asian crisis accelerated in '98. There's plenty of room for upside and the looming potential for deeper emerging market deflation which would have a greater impact on the East than the US.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weigted USD Index.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,018,464
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:50am Aug 12, 2015 7:50am
Quoting gatorinla
at b.e. with group.. going to bed if this dont work {image}
Do you see 1.0712 for EU and 99.100 for DXY from here?
  • #1,018,465
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:51am Aug 12, 2015 7:51am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Er, yes, I noticed. And I posted last week that I didn't understand the price action before NFP - that it was almost like the usual pump before the dump in reverse, and that I thought something was cooking because of the consolidation of the opening ranges inside each other. But the question is, fundamentally, why? Fundamentally, why should a weaker yuan be worse for the US than Europe?
Sometimes Fundamentals and Technicals are conflicting. For trading, I guess Technicals still rule over Fundamentals, at least in the short term.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #1,018,466
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:51am Aug 12, 2015 7:51am
Hourly pin bar and fall off a cliff?
  • #1,018,467
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:51am Aug 12, 2015 7:51am
OMFG AU bully me
  • #1,018,468
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:52am Aug 12, 2015 7:52am
Quoting matheszabi
GBP/AUD filled my long entry - pullback to Fibo. Now is +70 pip, but I think it can go more 40-80 pip
Nice, I scalped some Gbp/Aud longs earlier. Switched to Gbp/Nzd, looked like a stronger demand area. Haven't had 100 pips in less than 30 minutes for a while!
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  • #1,018,469
  • Aug 12, 2015 7:59am Aug 12, 2015 7:59am
I hope this 1HR pinbar is significant signal to short.
Short at 1.11450 SL 1.1185 TP 1.1036
Biggest Mistake ? Over Leverage
  • #1,018,470
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:01am Aug 12, 2015 8:01am
Quoting Luther
{quote} You're right. A weaker Yuan will increase PPI for USD in the long run. The EURUSD long I was discussing earlier is based on two shorter term factors. CNY unwinds and the market pricing in potential impact on September liftoff for FED rate change. These aren't long term factors, just my trades yesterday and today. Once the market adjusts, we should should see the USD inflation trade pick up again. Fundamentally, there are upside benefits with what's happening right now. I think we will see capacity start to increase in the US because of this...
Thankyou. Very nice analysis
  • #1,018,471
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:04am Aug 12, 2015 8:04am
Quoting sing2x
I hope this 1HR pinbar is significant signal to short. Short at 1.11450 SL 1.1185 TP 1.1036


Not so fast...at least you have big sl
  • #1,018,472
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:04am Aug 12, 2015 8:04am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Sometimes Fundamentals and Technicals are conflicting. For trading, I guess Technicals still rule over Fundamentals, at least in the short term.
You're right. When this 6 day rampage started the daily stochs were right on the bottom of oversold and turning up. While stochs don't always work, in a range (which on the monthly this still is) they work better.
  • #1,018,473
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:05am Aug 12, 2015 8:05am
Quoting sing2x
I hope this 1HR pinbar is significant signal to short. Short at 1.11450 SL 1.1185 TP 1.1036
if you had waited until the price went below the low of the H1 pin bar it would of been a better confirmation
  • #1,018,474
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:07am Aug 12, 2015 8:07am
Bull broke its upper channel. Someone trying to pump it again.
Could be US itself because of China.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #1,018,475
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:11am Aug 12, 2015 8:11am
Quoting forexings
Bull broke its upper channel. Someone trying to pump it again.
there is a buskar down the road with a hat full of different currencies, probably him....
and he is also a big boy
and set up outside a bank probably an MM
as good as any other conspiracy theory out there
  • #1,018,476
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:12am Aug 12, 2015 8:12am
Quoting forexings
Bull broke its upper channel. Someone trying to pump it again. Could be US itself because of China.
It has been pumping for the last 7 days.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #1,018,477
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:14am Aug 12, 2015 8:14am
Quoting uksnowman
{quote} Nice, I scalped some Gbp/Aud longs earlier. Switched to Gbp/Nzd, looked like a stronger demand area. Haven't had 100 pips in less than 30 minutes for a while! {image} {image}

GN hi-low 491 pips
  • #1,018,478
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:15am Aug 12, 2015 8:15am
Everyone still ok?
  • #1,018,479
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:17am Aug 12, 2015 8:17am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Do you see 1.0712 for EU and 99.100 for DXY from here?
post it. i have one lower
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,018,480
  • Aug 12, 2015 8:21am Aug 12, 2015 8:21am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} GN hi-low 491 pips
Yeah, almost as good as DAX.. EM currencies going to hurt with yuan shenanigans, GN triple top on daily hopefully it will blow soon on 4th time lucky
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