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AUD/USD

  • #91,481
  • Aug 5, 2015 1:18am Aug 5, 2015 1:18am
Quoting SkyrEk
Long entry at .7350. TP at .7400. Tight SL below .7350. Let's see how this PA plays out. Green Pips day to all!
How tight is your stop?
  • #91,482
  • Edited 1:42am Aug 5, 2015 1:20am | Edited 1:42am
Quoting AVLtrader
{quote} That had to sting. How tight is your stop?
10 pips. That will be .7340.
I guess i will get stopped out soon since its nearing my SL.

Stopped out.

Shall wait for European session to get into the market again.
  • #91,483
  • Aug 5, 2015 2:07am Aug 5, 2015 2:07am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} 10 pips. That will be .7340. I guess i will get stopped out soon since its nearing my SL. Stopped out. Shall wait for European session to get into the market again.

you should have exceeded ur stop to at atleast on closing basis

i am using ichimoku and the pair is going to reah ,7500
  • #91,484
  • Aug 5, 2015 2:50am Aug 5, 2015 2:50am
Going long once again, TP at .7390 - .7400.

I foresee USD weakness for today. My humble opinion on the market today.
  • #91,485
  • Aug 5, 2015 3:03am Aug 5, 2015 3:03am
Quoting SkyrEk
Going long once again, TP at .7390 - .7400. I foresee USD weakness for today. My humble opinion on the market today.
well i have this in site.
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Come tomorrow, I'll wake up new
  • #91,486
  • Aug 5, 2015 7:28am Aug 5, 2015 7:28am
Quoting SkyrEk
Going long once again, TP at .7390 - .7400. I foresee USD weakness for today. My humble opinion on the market today.
Took profit. That's all for today
  • #91,487
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:17am Aug 5, 2015 9:17am
May be it's a start of wave (v) of [iii]

Attached Image
Trend is your the best friend. Ever
  • #91,488
  • Aug 5, 2015 11:58am Aug 5, 2015 11:58am
Hi, what guys do you think about long of E/A?
  • #91,489
  • Aug 5, 2015 6:04pm Aug 5, 2015 6:04pm
A look at the big picture is better than a thousand words.

Within a few months we should have a sweet ride north.
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"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #91,490
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:20pm Aug 5, 2015 9:20pm
Quoting Firstboss
A look at the big picture is better than a thousand words. Within a few months we should have a sweet ride north. {image}
What will be the impetus for the reversal?

Commodity prices haven't found a floor. Chinese demand is dropping like a rock. RBA shows no intention of raising rates, in fact they're likely to cut more before the end of the year. The Fed will hike imminently as it seems now. Australian unemployment rate jumped three tenths of a percent on the back of a similar increase in the labor force participation rate. This economy has slack and an incredible amount of negative exogenous shocks.

Given aussie's correlation to commodity prices and global FX rates' correlation to interest rate differentials, there is no fundamental reason for this trend to reverse in the next few months. A fib support level or trend support level drawn with respect to intra-month lows isn't a persuasive argument. Dollar strength alone will send this pair straight through .7000

But such conflicts of opinion make markets. I shall confidently sell to you and your ilk.
  • #91,491
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:23pm Aug 5, 2015 9:23pm
It will probably go to 7314 or 7303 before any pull back.
  • #91,492
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:37pm Aug 5, 2015 9:37pm
Quoting cheersdup
{quote} What will be the impetus for the reversal? Commodity prices haven't found a floor. Chinese demand is dropping like a rock. RBA shows no intention of raising rates, in fact they're likely to cut more before the end of the year. The Fed will hike imminently as it seems now. Australian unemployment rate jumped three tenths of a percent on the back of a similar increase in the labor force participation rate. This economy has slack and an incredible amount of negative exogenous shocks. Given aussie's correlation to commodity prices and global...
A good question and one I don't necessarily have the answer to, instead I ask why, in a clear downtrend, (pick your starting point, but it's pretty obvious from at least April 2013) there have been 910 (Aug to Oct 2013), 845 (Jan to July 2014) and 631 (April to May 2015) pip up moves?

Maybe there was a reason for each, personally I worry less about the why and trade (as best I can) what actually happens.

That said I'm currently short and will stay predominantly short in the near term, as even if there is a reversal there will be pullbacks that I profit from.

Oh and another possible answer would be that high USD will hurt their recovery and rate rise will be delayed.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #91,493
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:43pm Aug 5, 2015 9:43pm
Quoting cheersdup
{quote} What will be the impetus for the reversal? Commodity prices haven't found a floor. Chinese demand is dropping like a rock. RBA shows no intention of raising rates, in fact they're likely to cut more before the end of the year. The Fed will hike imminently as it seems now. Australian unemployment rate jumped three tenths of a percent on the back of a similar increase in the labor force participation rate. This economy has slack and an incredible amount of negative exogenous shocks. Given aussie's correlation to commodity prices and global...
glad to see there are still people with the right mind. respect!
there is also a crowd who will never understand the reality.
this week means a lot to me, holding 9 short positions
As Above, So Below
  • #91,494
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:22pm Aug 5, 2015 10:22pm
short all the way
  • #91,495
  • Aug 6, 2015 12:16am Aug 6, 2015 12:16am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} glad to see there are still people with the right mind. respect! there is also a crowd who will never understand the reality. this week means a lot to me, holding 9 short positions
I July 2011 people were talking about 1.6 and even 2 AUDUSD price and at that time they thought any body thinking about bellow 1.0xx is as you said "will never understand the reality"
No mattar where the price go there will be people buying and athers selling it
  • #91,496
  • Aug 6, 2015 2:29am Aug 6, 2015 2:29am
Quoting cheersdup
{quote} What will be the impetus for the reversal?

Dollar strength alone will send this pair straight through .7000 But such conflicts of opinion make markets. I shall confidently sell to you and your ilk.
Quoting dab
{quote} A good question and one I don't necessarily have the answer to, instead I ask why, in a clear downtrend, (pick your starting point, but it's pretty obvious from at least April 2013) there have been 910 (Aug to Oct 2013), 845 (Jan to July 2014) and 631 (April to May 2015) pip up moves? Maybe there was a reason for each, personally I worry less about the why and trade (as best I can) what actually happens. That said I'm currently short and will stay predominantly short in the near term, as even if there is a reversal there will be pullbacks...
What he said! ;-)

@cheersdup, I am not going long right now - there is still some dollar strength left (we haven't even reached the trendline and the 61.8% fibo), and the reversal won't be instantaneous.
The reversal might take all the way to February. My post was a reminder about the long-term picture, not an entry call for today session.

As for the USD interest hikes, the first one has been pretty much played out (tomorrow nonfarm will likely confirm the hike). Now the intrigue will shift on the prospective and speed of further hikes.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #91,497
  • Aug 7, 2015 1:30am Aug 7, 2015 1:30am
Quoting Firstboss
{quote} {quote} What he said! ;-) @cheersdup, I am not going long right now - there is still some dollar strength left (we haven't even reached the trendline and the 61.8% fibo), and the reversal won't be instantaneous. The reversal might take all the way to February. My post was a reminder about the long-term picture, not an entry call for today session. As for the USD interest hikes, the first one has been pretty much played out (tomorrow nonfarm will likely confirm the hike). Now the intrigue will shift on the prospective and speed of further...
Looks like another swing higher is on the cards - maybe get to 74c? IMO...
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  • #91,498
  • Aug 7, 2015 7:20am Aug 7, 2015 7:20am
Trial a new indicator

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #91,499
  • Aug 7, 2015 7:54am Aug 7, 2015 7:54am
favouring longs to 7450
  • #91,500
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:24am Aug 7, 2015 8:24am
Quoting shripsfx
favouring longs to 7450
Given the triple top on 1hr chart of 74c (& current price around 7340) I think a trip to retest 7315 low much more likely. Why do you favour long to that target?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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