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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #841
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:35am Aug 5, 2015 9:35am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #842
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:05am Aug 5, 2015 10:05am
Quoting toppo qqq
I cannot comment on your strategy, maybe vvFish would. And since this is his thread, I do not want to clutter it up. {image}
My friend, you can post comments, show their patterns and their indicators, I'm just glad that someone else brings something new in this thread.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #843
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:20am Aug 5, 2015 10:20am
Thursday
4:30
06/08/15
AU number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
20% probability trades.

Thursday
11:30
06/08/15
GB Industrial Production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
14:00
06/08/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
06/08/15
US weekly jobless report
(US Unemployment Claims), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
06/08/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #844
  • Edited 11:28am Aug 5, 2015 10:30am | Edited 11:28am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Unusual ordinary meeting of the Bank of England.


This Thursday we will have a portion of a drive by the regulator of the British monetary policy: The Bank of England will publish the interest rate decision immediately will present data on the structure of the vote, will give the inflation report, and after 45 minutes it will all have to stir Mark Carney at a press conference .
As it cooks in this mess? Let's try to uproarious.
Of course, the best solution is - to take popcorn and watch the event from the sidelines. This decision will suit the majority.
The remaining 2% may be regarded in this data space.
Most (and the experience of such publications do not exist, since the structure is represented by two weeks after the vote), primary data will be a decision on the interest rate change which analysts see no plan. It remains at 0.5% of the market are counting on a rate hike in the beginning of 2016.
The second important point - the structure. Now the forecast: "2" MPC member to vote for a rate hike, apparently implying that Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale return to hawk's nest, as this is still in 2014.
Third Strike - read quarterly inflation report, which conceals a state forecasts and prospects for inflation in the short term, which in turn is still the only (almost the only) argument in favor of "why interest rates can not be raised now."
Mark Carney will be the fourth, and "take stock" of all this ugliness.
Certainly this day will be for the British pound most productive, as the price will be laid much information. From the perspective of the news trade, he (the day), as well as the most productive and the most dangerous: the probability that will have to work quickly - high. Markets eat voting structure, and then take over the inflation report, and if the data come in inconsistency - spiking is inevitable. If you are not sure of your broker, go to the popcorn.
Please note that the markets are already laid in the price forecast for the two voting "for" the rate increase, but if it really will be Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale, the attitude towards them is not so serious as to other names.
Given the fact that at the last meeting of the Committee of the "majority" of members agreed that inflation will return to normal in the medium term, we have reason to hope for a positive outcome of all this mess, namely, the optimistic scenario is this: voting "for" really It will be two of them, while the inflation report will confirm the line output of CPI 2% in 2016 (in this scenario volatility will be the most pleasant and directed). Worst-case scenario could start with the fact that "for two" does not appear, it turns out that those wishing not - this is a decrease, but then, if the inflation report will show growth forecast inflation get rolled. This is the most likely course of action. Less likely that will be "bad": voting no, and the forecast of CPI growth is weak (which, incidentally, also suit us).
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #845
  • Aug 5, 2015 8:36pm Aug 5, 2015 8:36pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #846
  • Aug 5, 2015 8:49pm Aug 5, 2015 8:49pm
Thank you vvFish for your kind words.

My entry was bad, only to recover with addtional short positions

Yours is much better - ride on the spike at the news, the way to go

Two questions;
1) what is the number 285 (yellow) on your chart?
2) can you please share the indicator that shows the 0.00$ text in red on the right bottom corner?

Thanks in advance,
Toppo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #847
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:06pm Aug 5, 2015 9:06pm
1.a script that shows how many points you have won or lost
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BETTER_YZGraphOnLine_W для белого экрана.mq4   15 KB | 485 downloads
File Type: mq4 BETTER_YZGraphOnLine для черного экрана.mq4   15 KB | 503 downloads
File Type: ex4 BETTER_YZGraphOnLine_W для белого экрана.ex4   14 KB | 469 downloads
File Type: ex4 BETTER_YZGraphOnLine для черного экрана.ex4   14 KB | 447 downloads
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #848
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:08pm Aug 5, 2015 9:08pm
2. the indicator that shows the 0.00$ text in red on the right bottom corner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_5.png Size: 35 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #849
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:15pm Aug 5, 2015 9:15pm
Quoting toppo qqq
Thank you vvFish for your kind words. My entry was bad, only to recover with addtional short positions Yours is much better - ride on the spike at the news, the way to go Two questions; 1) what is the number 285 (yellow) on your chart? 2) can you please share the indicator that shows the 0.00$ text in red on the right bottom corner? Thanks in advance, Toppo {image}
We all make mistakes sometimes.
From this no one is safe

我々は、すべての、時には間違いを犯します。
このことから誰もが安全ではありません
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #850
  • Aug 6, 2015 12:56am Aug 6, 2015 12:56am
Спасибо, vvFish !
  • #851
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:06am Aug 6, 2015 1:06am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #852
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:06am Aug 6, 2015 1:06am
Quoting toppo qqq
Спасибо, vvFish !
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #853
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:54am Aug 6, 2015 1:54am
What is your entry method; stop order or just market order by one-click?

I should have placed a stop buy order, but scared a little bit. I trade live...

By the way, am attaching an interesting Calendar indicator as seen on the chart below. News vertical line will appear if you click on the tag. Maybe you like it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-06 15_47_36-.png Size: 50 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 CalendarFX-I-A15.ex4   117 KB | 446 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CalendarFX-I-A15.mq4   101 KB | 485 downloads
  • #854
  • Aug 6, 2015 2:25am Aug 6, 2015 2:25am
Quoting toppo qqq
What is your entry method; stop order or just market order by one-click? I should have placed a stop buy order, but scared a little bit. I trade live... By the way, am attaching an interesting Calendar indicator as seen on the chart below. News vertical line will appear if you click on the tag. Maybe you like it. {image}{file}{file}
market order by one-click
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #855
  • Aug 6, 2015 2:42am Aug 6, 2015 2:42am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} market order by one-click
  • #856
  • Aug 6, 2015 5:36am Aug 6, 2015 5:36am
Hi Dear vvFish.
1- How do you decide to sell or buy just few seconds before news (or sometimes few seconds after news) with such a high win rate?
2- Are you trade in real account?
thanks a lot
  • #857
  • Aug 6, 2015 6:24am Aug 6, 2015 6:24am
I follow the rules at the base of this strategy, however my exits are not always perfect..... 300 of 1000 pips banked
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  • #858
  • Aug 6, 2015 6:56am Aug 6, 2015 6:56am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Natural Gas Inventories. Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out, prior reading is 52 Bcf.

**********************************************************
Analysts See 43-Billion-Cubic-Feet Rise in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
Published: Aug 05, 2015

By Nicole Friedman


Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release on Thursday to show U.S. natural gas inventories rose by less than typical levels for this time of year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 43 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week ended July 31, according to the average forecast of 14 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

For the July 31 week, the median estimate is for a rise of 44 bcf. Estimates range from an increase of 38 bcf to a rise of 47 bcf.

The estimate for July 31 is below last year's 83-bcf build in storage for the same week and less than the 53-bcf five-year average build for that week.

If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of July 31 will total 2.923 trillion cubic feet, 23% above the year-ago level and 2.6% above the five-year average for the same week.

***********************************************************

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #859
  • Aug 6, 2015 7:36am Aug 6, 2015 7:36am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #860
  • Aug 6, 2015 9:33am Aug 6, 2015 9:33am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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