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  • #136,481
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:52pm Aug 3, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Coming figures from Spain unemployment change tmrw. I agree with you the importance of Spain and we see clearly the housing market is improving. Up 4% last year. I am following Cyprus very tight and not much improvements to see still in the housing market and I am suprised not more improvements due to low rates. Housing market/labour are market strongly connected
Well Spain is the main benchmark from the "Southern" block, Germany from the "Northern". Cyprus is irrelevant because of size in all fronts for macro decisions.

Last week Spanish flash GDP was "good" but we wont get much key data until the end of the summer. If Spain manage to hold Q3 after all the Greek noise, China and the upcoming rates ...we may have to start paying very close attention to those numbers ...

....meanwhile the are several major macro factors in play way beyond Spain short term numbers so I don't think we will see any real impact ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,482
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:11pm Aug 3, 2015 7:11pm
Thank you so much Sisse for your macro analysis here. Can you tell us what are the news portals/sites/newspapers you read? Do you subscribe any news service? bloomberg?
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well Spain is the main benchmark from the "Southern" block, Germany from the "Northern". Cyprus is irrelevant because of size in all fronts for macro decisions. Last week Spanish flash GDP was "good" but we wont get much key data until the end of the summer. If Spain manage to hold Q3 after all the Greek noise, China and the upcoming rates ...we may have to start paying very close attention to those numbers ... ....meanwhile the are several major macro factors in play way beyond Spain short term numbers so I don't think we will see any real...
  • #136,483
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:17pm Aug 3, 2015 7:17pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Which levels do you look at for a reload? I have 1.1002x~1.1006x, and it looks rather close so if it's going to be a significant pump, do you expect 1.108xx or even 1.1111X?
I posted it, look back. Need a lower low first
  • #136,484
  • Aug 4, 2015 2:20am Aug 4, 2015 2:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well Spain is the main benchmark from the "Southern" block, Germany from the "Northern". Cyprus is irrelevant because of size in all fronts for macro decisions. Last week Spanish flash GDP was "good" but we wont get much key data until the end of the summer. If Spain manage to hold Q3 after all the Greek noise, China and the upcoming rates ...we may have to start paying very close attention to those numbers ... ....meanwhile the are several major macro factors in play way beyond Spain short term numbers so I don't think we will see any real...
Yes Cyprus is irrelvant for Europe as a whole but it is a timing of the situation in this country.

http://www.news.cyprus-property-buye...ard/id=0087387

Improvents in Spain wil lift Cyprus also in the future and as we could see today Spain are really improving.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=551880.
  • #136,485
  • Aug 4, 2015 2:26am Aug 4, 2015 2:26am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} {quote} A quick, nasty clearing of weak shorts on Friday to bring up another 1.1096 test before the monthly closed too at 1.098, which is neutral as can be in my book on that TF. First, it's tough for anything fresh at these levels but real interesting to track 1.0963 intraday with London. A clean intraday breakdown opens up 1.093 then 1.089. Anything else intraday, a bullish outside candle or break above 1.099 and I'm out of sync with the whole picture. Definitely not easy for anything new but let's see how this tight range...
1.093 (97.72) got tested with Asia but via 1.098. All the same levels in play in a super compressed range.

Very dislocated from new entries everywhere in currencies with no handy references in sight even on the commodity currency pullback. Wait and see mode then until NFP can shake things up.

It's also very messy on the pair to play any momentum breakdowns because there are so many clusters of support from stubborn bulls holding the line which make the move to 1.073 extremely choppy. So looking out for a sell the highs play to add and work a buffer before payrolls.
  • #136,486
  • Aug 4, 2015 3:10am Aug 4, 2015 3:10am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} ... Spain are really improving. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=551880.
Positive numbers keep coming from Spain and key markets finding strong foot before NFP.

----------- ----------------- ----------------- ------------------

European equities (they have been on the back sit since Greece jitter) leading the way and triggering imminent short term break alerts in Dax for the next few sessions for a very tradable and yummy rally (for those trading or tracking 1140x ---> 1204x) till the end of the summer.

With Greece "cleared", Spain turning around, full ECB QE and oil collapsing, there is plenty of room for the bounce. The only party pooper is FED hikes but a inline or slightly below number (counterintuitive for those who ask but the play comes from timing of hikes not from the actual NFP number) this Friday will do wonder for this rally.

Very important moves to track this morning as it will carry the board (gold finding foot too)and especially the euro (Euro has been in the back sit too the last few weeks). A break back 1.098x will make me start clearing and play the reverso short term swing with the proper NFP providing momentum for a leg to 1.098x ---> 1.135x (with max extension to the 1.15xx handle).

If european equities hold the opening I will be changing my short term outlook in Euro from Sell to NEUTRAL.

We'll see. in a few.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,487
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:21am Aug 4, 2015 6:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Positive numbers keep coming from Spain and key markets finding strong foot before NFP. ----------- ----------------- ----------------- ------------------ European equities (they have been on the back sit since Greece jitter) leading the way and triggering imminent short term break alerts in Dax for the next few sessions for a very tradable and yummy rally (for those trading or tracking 1140x ---> 1204x) till the end of the summer. With Greece "cleared", Spain turning around, full ECB QE and oil collapsing, there is plenty of room for the...
i dont understand it could u please explain it?
  • #136,488
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:24am Aug 4, 2015 6:24am
1.098x is holding as resistance or getting ready to break?
what is the senario fo adp ?
  • #136,489
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:33am Aug 4, 2015 6:33am
European Equities holding the session and Euro just in time testing 1.098x as expected. Watch out for a potential momentum play across the board with NY opening via European equities rallying for the closing session and euro to the 1.11xx handle before NFP.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,490
  • Aug 4, 2015 7:33am Aug 4, 2015 7:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Positive numbers keep coming from Spain and key markets finding strong foot before NFP. ----------- ----------------- ----------------- ------------------ European equities (they have been on the back sit since Greece jitter) leading the way and triggering imminent short term break alerts in Dax for the next few sessions for a very tradable and yummy rally (for those trading or tracking 1140x ---> 1204x) till the end of the summer. With Greece "cleared", Spain turning around, full ECB QE and oil collapsing, there is plenty of room for the...
Hello Sisse,

Gold : I completely agree with you, short term move looks exhausted and over, gold may get some new air @ 1130 and the big 1145/50 before exploring further down
EUR/USD : Nearly the same short term target as posted last friday (1.1350/1.14xx), imo just need a confirmed break of the daily ichimoku cloud @ 1.114x
Euro Equities : No idea to be honest but it's hard to imagine Euro Equities will follow the move on EUR/USD (from the beginning of the year, correlation is globally negative between these assets)

I have to say I will not play these ST moves on Gold and EUR/USD, I will keep my LT shorts and will just wait to load/reload, ECB and FED plans look clear for the future, I don't want to fight big hands, I feel too much stress to be long : that is my best personal indicator.

This post is also an occasion for me, as a new member, to tell you I am very grateful for all your sharings. All the best.
  • #136,491
  • Edited 9:21am Aug 4, 2015 8:49am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Positive numbers keep coming from Spain and key markets finding strong foot before NFP. ----------- ----------------- ----------------- ------------------ European equities (they have been on the back sit since Greece jitter) leading the way and triggering imminent short term break alerts in Dax for the next few sessions for a very tradable and yummy rally (for those trading or tracking 1140x ---> 1204x) till the end of the summer. With Greece "cleared", Spain turning around, full ECB QE and oil collapsing, there is plenty of room for the...

I think UK may be the first country to raise rates. It looks as if UK are in a better position for a high currency value than the US which looks to me as getting hurt by the strong USD. The GPB is at the same levels now as before the finacial crisis started. When the first rate hike comes along we will see the CHF staring to decline.(has the decline started?) For Europe I think that a strong GPB will show investments from UK and back to south Europe as Spain, Portugal, Cyprus etc. Has this started in Spain? We read here abouth people buying unseen properties in Spain just to get into the market. The unemplymenta rate in Spain showed only 22% down 8% from july last year.
In 2007 we saw the opposite it was very attractive to sell in south of Europe due to the declining GPB and money was taken back to UK for investment in UK. I think many countries and people are stuck in expensive CHF loans which is bad espeially for the south european banks. Ithink that in bank ogf Cyprus half of the loans were CHF loans which have hurt the Cyprus banks badly. I think it is much the same situation in many other south european countries.
AS you said yesterday Spain is so important for the european development and Spain shows great improvements and will reduce the unemployment rate in Europe. At a certan level here there will be a change in the euro/USD rate with the improving Europe.. Euro/USD at 1,1 looks important. When it is over we are starting to think we are bottoming the euro. When it is under again it might go to parity. The marker makers are trying to confuse us but the fudamental will win in the end. The fudamental is Europe really starting to improve? WE have even seen a 5% increase in the euro after the beginning of the quantitavive easing. I am still expcting a wawe down due to the quantitative easing. Still I find it diffcult with an improving Europe(if they are improving) The decling oil support the stronger USD and I still think it will be a stock market correction which strengthens the USD(safe heaven). After that it wil be a heavily decline in the USD.

IF UK starts to hike rates and south Europe is improving it will be less neccessary for ECB to continiue the quatitative easing till september next year.T here is no reason for the euro/USD to go parity with a much improving Europe and US starts to suffer. It could be 1,2 then which still is very low for the euro.

The financial crisis started with the GPB declining and I think UK is important for the development of the rest of Europe and the euro and even the CHF. As you said Spain is important to watch for the furher developemt of the euro.

On the other hand it is still 11% unemployment in the eurosone and yesterday the Standard & Poor's downgraded EU from «stabil» to «negativ».
  • #136,492
  • Aug 4, 2015 11:14am Aug 4, 2015 11:14am
Well, I had my longs in (not the best entries) and was set for the pre-ADP pump today and then.....fizzle. IMO, if it was going to go up it had the perfect chance when it bounced off the daily pivot & 50% retrace from 1.0960. No new high, so I guess bulls have given up for now, or just being very sneaky. Now I'm looking for a multi-leg down move to challenge the days low reached during Asia.

As for the break up on Friday, it was either a signal of more to come or some big hands pushing market up to a supply zone for their shorts. Now with more time having passed, it looks more and more like the latter.
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  • #136,493
  • Edited 1:34pm Aug 4, 2015 1:08pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Positive numbers keep coming from Spain and key markets finding strong foot before NFP. ----------- ----------------- ----------------- ------------------ European equities (they have been on the back sit since Greece jitter) leading the way and triggering imminent short term break alerts in Dax for the next few sessions for a very tradable and yummy rally (for those trading or tracking 1140x ---> 1204x) till the end of the summer. With Greece "cleared", Spain turning around, full ECB QE and oil collapsing, there is plenty of room for...
Hello Sisse,

just a few Q:

In my view the NFP, average hourly earnings, unemployment does not matter so much per se for trading. It matters only via the hikes -- and so? If its in bad set (under 200 (??)/low AHE) the hikes move to December = we get wide chop zone starting with some sort of couter-hikes-direction rally. If its in line with exp (or just above 200 (??))or better it triggers the strong/quick/long hike leg across all the instruments till the end of summer (third impulsive leg - first one was done as the preemptive one - as you have marvelously tracked). Hope I get this basic framework right from you

Concerning the DAX: I have also been thinking recently - given exactly what you described "Greece "cleared", Spain turning around, full ECB QE and oil collapsing, there is plenty of room for the bounce" - its the best one to go long***. But how do you see it in case the friday data is enough for September hikes? Is the positive european enviroment capable to outweight the FED or is DAX gonna be dragged down by the US equities?

*** Actually DAX is my only open trade now. I could not stand this crazy pre-NFP mode after so much time of compresed range even though I was short from higher levels. Now just gotta hope to catch the mid term hike swing if it materializes. Too bad EUR fell intraday just after I closed my shorts. But. Lets never regret!!!

Plus maybe a beginner question but what is the correlation/idea behind this - "If european equities hold the opening I will be changing my short term outlook in Euro from Sell to NEUTRAL"?

Thank you
  • #136,494
  • Edited 1:44pm Aug 4, 2015 1:24pm | Edited 1:44pm
Euro held steady 1.098x(via FED hawkish comment) and we finally completed the the leg 1.088x making things a lot easier to manage for NFP.
Clearing long overdue unfilled main swing target 1.088x and tracking very closely a potential short term reverso leg if NFP flops in a break back up 1.098x....until then nothing to see in the Euro.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,495
  • Aug 4, 2015 1:57pm Aug 4, 2015 1:57pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} .....
In a nutshell. Money flowing from US and UK equities (hikes) to EZ equities (QE + slight recovery + short risk cleared).We'll discuss in detail later after the bell.sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,496
  • Aug 4, 2015 2:16pm Aug 4, 2015 2:16pm
Just closed my shorts after reading Sisses post about the "short reverse position". Bears also look like they might bottom out soon (short term) when the dust starts to settle after Lockharts comments. Might reach daily S3 / weekly S1 confluence zone today. Happy with my excellent profits and hoping to reload higher up. Sneakily hoping for a reverse leg to get better prices but better would be just a continuation down after a small rebound. Still we're the beginning of august so there's still time for an upmove before the FED decision in september.
  • #136,497
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:27pm Aug 4, 2015 6:27pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote}.... Euro Equities : No idea to be honest but it's hard to imagine Euro Equities will follow the move on EUR/USD (from the beginning of the year, correlation is globally negative between these assets)
Indeed.

I must admit my comment on the correlation may have sounded a bit premature given the short term hikes play first. However, what I was trying to say is that European equities will hold better than US/UK equities. DAX leg up until the end of the year is counterintuitive but may pan out better than expected as money will flow to the eurozone.

Quote
I will keep my LT shorts and will just wait to load/reload, ECB and FED plans look clear for the future, I don't want to fight big hands, I feel too much stress to be long : that is my best personal indicator. This post is also an occasion for me, as a new member, to tell you I am very grateful for all your sharings. All the best.

Sure the best option on the table is sit tight and hold mid term swings. There is no question about it. I am personally fully loaded in the mid term swing.

The play I was/referring is a potential short term NFP play for the week(s). A flop will caught the market on the wrong foot making 1.098x the flip area for a sharp quick up and down. In simple words, better be ready than sorry and if you are sharp enough you could even play it.

As you well pointed out, the best play is by far going with the flow. Market is now loaded and ready to complete first mid term targets on NFP (1.073x with ext 1.066x).

Btw, welcome to the boards....

Quoting chester123
{quote} Q: In my view the NFP, average hourly earnings, unemployment does not matter so much per se for trading. It matters only via the hikes -- and so? If its in bad set (under 200 (??)/low AH...?...
Well NFP matters always and a lot . However, the FED directly linked the Sep hike to employment so basically this Friday NFP could be the actual indirect FED announcement. An inline will be more than enough to confirm ....

Quote
Concerning the DAX: But how do you see it in case the friday data is enough for September hikes? Is the positive european enviroment capable to outweight the FED or is DAX gonna be dragged down by the US equities? ***

Well more than a positive environment, is HIKES in US and UK while free money in Europe (QE) with negative rates. If you add to current hikes environment, things slowly improving in the EZ and risk out of the question short term you have a strong support on European equities.

Nothing will hold the short term reaction of hikes, those plays will be clearer right before a RMT leg and after the initial leg. In between both stages, rates and US equities will rampage the board and nothing will hold untouched... thats for sure...

Quote
But. Lets never regret!! what is the correlation/idea behind this - "If european equities hold the opening I will be changing my short term outlook in Euro from Sell to NEUTRAL"? Thank you

In today's case was Purely technical. European equites were breaking up with US markets in hike jitters. Also Euro was flirting to turn around intraday (1.098x) trying to break correlation was a key alert of positioning for a flop in NFP.

At the end and as you saw 1.098x held steady so nothing happened. The level is still intact pre NFP. However, today's FED comments (the ones that slam down euro) were extremely hawkish and the odds are diminishing by the minute. We will need a massive flop in NFP to go beyond 1.11xx handle as we stand in todays close.

Whatever the case, map is 100% clear for the play making NFP extremely "easy" to manage if we don't get any surprises (we may get one as Super Thursday is announced from the BOE) till then ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,498
  • Edited 5:31am Aug 5, 2015 4:59am | Edited 5:31am
Raising interst rate is ihard to sell with no inflation.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=552105

The question also is whether raising the interst rate is more important than the improvement of Europe after a decline of 32% in the euro/USD since may last year.
The improvement of Europe should make the euro rise. Rate hike we think it will raise the USD but a rake hike in US will give a signal of furture rate increase also in the eurosone so even this could make the euro rise. It is always abouth expecations of the future and before it happends
I hope for a market correction down to area 1,0465-1,06 area. If this happens I will go long euro and stay up to 1,2 at least which should be a reasonable level for the euro/USD if Europe is improving and the rates are increased. In my opinium is 1,09 too strong for the USD It must come down in the future for infaltion and competivness.
  • #136,499
  • Aug 5, 2015 5:38am Aug 5, 2015 5:38am
Lots of mediocre numbers reports from the EZ but the STAR and only important one in the SHOW (Spain) shining with a strong positive print making European equities march on the leg up.

DAX as expected in full control of the session and paying nicely (for those trading or following the move 1160x first target tested). We wont go much further than that without US reports (hikes play) cleared ....

On the Euro, comatose session on the background of the moves in European equities but important pre NFP news coming with ADP before NY opens. Expecting a mover and shaker today as it can (and prolly will) trigger a preemptive move for the KEY NFP on Friday.... details later for the play.

sisse

Quoting MarianneOslo
....The question also is whether raising the interst rate is more important than the improvement of Europe after a decline of 32% in the euro/USD since may last year.
oh yeah. NO DOUBT about it !!!. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing more important in a FX instruments than interest rates (CB policies in general caps/pegs/QE and rates). In the pair you have a triple whammy: hikes in one side (US), negative rates and QE !!!! in the other (EZ).

Quote
The improvement of Europe should make the euro rise. Rate hike we think it will raise the USD but a rake hike in US will give a signal of furture rate increase also in the eurosone so even this could make the euro rise.

ufff.... you are way off timing. FED rates are coming either in 1 month or in 4 months. ECB will only finish printing money (QE) in SEP 2016 !!! let alone hiking rates ... you are taking about nearly 2 years off mark ....

Second you are giving too much leverage in the improvement in Europe. What we have been witnessing is barely signs of life specially in Ireland, Spain and to lesser extend Portugal.

Improvements? is what you got in the US and UK. It will take a few quarters (my bet is Q2/Q3 2016) of consistent positive numbers to see real improvements in the EZ ...we will get there but we are not there yet in that front...

Quote
... I hope for a market correction down to area 1,0465-1,06 area. If this happens I will go long euro and stay up to 1,2 at least which should be a reasonable level for the euro/USD if Euro is improving and the rates are increased. ....

Yes that is pretty much a "done deal". It will take a miracle in the euro to avoid testing the lows of the year. A double FED hike this year will put us even below (sub parity test) until then euro mid and long term outlooks are in solid SELL.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,500
  • Aug 5, 2015 6:08am Aug 5, 2015 6:08am
I am waiting untill I see this rate hike. I am still not convinced abouth this hike. They have been talking abouth rate hike since february and still nothing has happened. Time will show.
Draghi also told tha market in february/march at the level 1,0465 that it was not necessary to keep rates much lower. I dont thi k that ECB will continiue the easing untill september 2016 if the rates are raised in the US and UK. Things can change. It is the development of Europe deciding this. Rate hikes un the US will raise the European market rates also.
I think UK will be the first. They made a big mistake last time and kept their interst rate too high too long under the financial crisis and made a lot of damage.

You are sure that Euro/USD will go down to 1,0465. I hope it will. Time will show.
Your comments abouth me beeing too optimistic abouth the eurosone is not correct. I am using your words abouth how important Spain is for the development in Europe and Spain is really improving. This I am really convinced. Many countries in Europe I am not so convinced still.

Quote sisse
Well thats why all eyes are in Spain (which is turning around lately). Spain alone is contributing +/- 1/2 of that unemployment number.

I do not understand why US and UK are talking abouth rate hike with all the problems we are surrending at the moment. If they do it is a big mistake. Now the investments goes to Europe and Asia with lower currencies. US and UK will suffer with a higher currency.
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