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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,461
  • Jul 31, 2015 4:32pm Jul 31, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting dasilva
I received this email from F X C M {quote} They only ever send such emails when they are expecting heavy volatility. It makes me wonder what they are anticipating next week...!
Hi Dasilva,

Actually, the new margin requirements for your account are only slight adjustments to account for how the US dollar has risen in value. I notice your forum profile mentions that you live in the UK. I assume you have a GBP-denominated trading account. That means the margin you set aside for open positions is denominated in British Pounds.

The stronger dollar means you have to put up slightly more GBP as margin for USD-based positions than in the past. The exact margin requirements can be found here: http://bit.ly/1IuFI4s

If you have any other questions about your FXCM account, please feel free to post them in our discussion thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...newpost&t=8960
  • #136,462
  • Aug 1, 2015 1:37am Aug 1, 2015 1:37am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi Dasilva, Actually, the new margin requirements for your account are only slight adjustments to account for how the US dollar has risen in value....
Ok no probs, thanks.
  • #136,463
  • Aug 1, 2015 10:42am Aug 1, 2015 10:42am
Quoting sisse
In the euro, bearish close in Monthly, slightly bullish in Weekly but looks that the last rally was a dead cat bounce as expected .... We'll see the final answer next week for sure.... Got what i wanted so same levels, same trades, same all .... sisse
I've been short euro/long dollar bias for the last several weeks, but Friday has given me some concerns. While on the one hand the eur/usd rise & fall could be explained as the market (or large hands) reacting to bad US data to get the pair up to a nice resistance area where sellers were waiting to push it back down, there are other explanations as well, like the market/large hands that pushed it down were caught short & worked it back down to get out of their shorts.

My concerns that we may be looking at a short term rise in the eur/usd pair are most technical, but the reports I've read on Friday's US data showing the lowest wage inflation since 1982 does not give me confidence to keep my remaining shorts until the market tells me something new.

1. See the DXY 1H chart attached. The July 29th lows were broken (but note the July 26th lows barely held). The recovery has not yet reached the minimum 97.39 level to call the recovery a reversal leg back to USD bull. More falling in the USD from here will likely break those July 26th lows & then massive short squeeze on eur/usd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Friday DXY.PNG Size: 28 KB


2. See the Eur/USD 30m chart attached. Sorry it's so small but it gets to wide to fit if I make it one larger & the 1H chart doesn't show this detail (the fall).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fri EurUsd.PNG Size: 37 KB

a. The rise. We have a butterfly sell at the 261.8% level. First AB leg was from 1.0893-1.0967. Then a retrace to 1.0921 which was exactly the 38.2% level where the CD leg started. See the light blue vertical lines showing the measured move was within 1 pip of 261.8% going up; 1.0921-1.1114.
b. The fall. This is where the 30m chart was needed. We have a return to the harmonic structure of 1.0967 (this broker shows return low was 1.0964). We also have an ABCD completed down from the lower high of 1.1111 (Ata's favorite number) to 1.1025, the AB leg of 86 pips. Then the CD leg from 1.1052 to 1.0964; 88 pips.

I'm still undecided on what to do next week, but toying with the idea of looking at eur/usd longs. I'm not sure I like the risk of the pair going up if I'm short b/c although there are resistances in there, I think a break of 1.1111 will lead it straight to 1.14, which puts the 1.18 back in play (then 1.22 if 1.18). Of course the reverse is also true as a break of 1.0893 seems to kill all euro long hopes and would bring the pair to 1.05 at least, which puts 1.0 back in play. I see why Gatorinla is always pointing out the 1.0964 mid. I guess I have another day to make up my mind if I'm taking a position at open (or killing my last short to be flat).
defense wins championships
  • #136,464
  • Aug 2, 2015 4:39pm Aug 2, 2015 4:39pm
If anyone cares, I've decided to go flat and join the sideline until I get up tomorrow morning. Good luck to all.
defense wins championships
  • #136,465
  • Aug 2, 2015 6:14pm Aug 2, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm showing we test the 1.04xx lows for the midterm swing...watching this W/M close closely. Both the W/M candles looking ugly for bulls, TA targets all in alignment within a pip or two, possible normal LL bounce after 1.08xx for one more mid-term reload
Still looking for this

may reload at 1.1011/1025 if the opportunity comes after we break the current 1.0893 low.

Possibility to find ourselves back here 1.10xx after 1.04xx

Absolutely should get a bounce before 1.04xx, lots of Norms will be in play
  • #136,466
  • Aug 3, 2015 1:27am Aug 3, 2015 1:27am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Quoting ClinicalEx Strong follow through after the direct threat weekly close at 1.098. 1.053 1.1053 and 1.017 1.1017 are tradeable intraday levels on the retrace but I can't quite pin down resistance so just tracking the highs for a fresh intraday reference. 1.1053 is in play Just a quick update about R or levels to track for the close. It's that old level 1.1096 in play with price well contained and absolutely likely to hold any overshoot (if) it moves to 1.1140/50...
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} {quote} Just about out of time so it's looking like a weekly close around 1.098 which leaves the ball firmly in the FED's court. Let's see where we close later.

A quick, nasty clearing of weak shorts on Friday to bring up another 1.1096 test before the monthly closed too at 1.098, which is neutral as can be in my book on that TF.

First, it's tough for anything fresh at these levels but real interesting to track 1.0963 intraday with London. A clean intraday breakdown opens up 1.093 then 1.089. Anything else intraday, a bullish outside candle or break above 1.099 and I'm out of sync with the whole picture. Definitely not easy for anything new but let's see how this tight range at 1.098 is resolved first.
  • #136,467
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:03am Aug 3, 2015 9:03am
hey guys long time was out of station and was not able to type on mobile screen ..... how are you all.....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,468
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:23am Aug 3, 2015 9:23am
Welcome back jarvis
  • #136,469
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:43am Aug 3, 2015 9:43am
Quoting Pharm0r
Welcome back jarvis
thank you .... what plans for eu trade .... i am bearish on eu from a very long time .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,470
  • Aug 3, 2015 10:16am Aug 3, 2015 10:16am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} thank you .... what plans for eu trade .... i am bearish on eu from a very long time .....
Many of us shorted at 1.11xx last week, which is also where I am. None to add until we go below .089x and bounce
  • #136,471
  • Aug 3, 2015 10:27am Aug 3, 2015 10:27am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Many of us shorted at 1.11xx last week, which is also where I am. None to add until we go below .089x and bounce
For me a bounce is expected near the x.08xxx and 07xx area let's see where it wants to take us all ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #136,472
  • Aug 3, 2015 1:35pm Aug 3, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting sisse
Oil ....for the close but its closing in "scary" bearish mode. Without external factors the current yearly lows are naked and a tiny wind will put oil at the astonishing $36.xx handle in no time. This move will bring a long tail across the board in all fronts so worth keep a very close eye even if you are not trading directly ....
Sharp moves in oil and it keep paying superbly. The rest of the board behaving on the same wide ranges. US Equities back to square one, GOLD stuck in chop zone and Euro in a sleepy session as expected before NFP.

Nothing new across the board on these levels with Oil in free fall cause its own heavy underlyings (China and Iran are heavyweights FA in play) and the rest in their launching platforms for the first RMT waves.

In the dollar, week hasn't even start yet ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,473
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:20pm Aug 3, 2015 2:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sharp moves in oil and it keep paying superbly. The rest of the board behaving on the same wide ranges. US Equities back to square one, GOLD stuck in chop zone and Euro in a sleepy session as expected before NFP. Nothing new across the board on these levels with Oil in free fall cause its own heavy underlyings (China and Iran are heavyweights FA in play) and the rest in their launching platforms for the first RMT waves. In the dollar, week hasn't even start yet .... sisse
sisse - do you have a view on the likely impact of a low oil price on dollar - won't it reduce demand for dollar long term??
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,474
  • Edited 3:15pm Aug 3, 2015 2:32pm | Edited 3:15pm
Stastistic goes the USD up when the oil goes down. I do not belive in rate hike from FED nor in september or in desember. Still I think the USD will rise as safe heaven. We have seen not much decline in the stock market but we will se soon and USD will rise although US are not raising rates.
Break even for many oil producers is 45 USD so one it getting towards a level of less activity if the oil price stays at this level. Less activity is bad for USD

In the shorter term the USD will rise in the longer term we will see a heavily decline in the USD i think but not before the eurosones improves more than today..

It is still more than 11% unemployment en the eurosone even after a 30% decrease in the euro/USD and also after quantative easing to keep the rates low. Only down from 12% I am very suprised to still see so little improvemnts in the eurosone after heavily quantative easing. Before the financial crisis the employment rate was 6,5% in the euro sone.
  • #136,475
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:44pm Aug 3, 2015 2:44pm
Looking for some Tuesday pump day action to reload.
  • #136,476
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:54pm Aug 3, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Looking for some Tuesday pump day action to reload.
Which levels do you look at for a reload? I have 1.1002x~1.1006x, and it looks rather close so if it's going to be a significant pump, do you expect 1.108xx or even 1.1111X?
  • #136,477
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:18pm Aug 3, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} sisse - do you have a view on the likely impact of a low oil price on dollar - won't it reduce demand for dollar long term??
Tricky one.

Assuming, oil gets smack down below $40 for an extended period of time the consequences can be VERY important to say the least. It will be extremely hard to establish a one to one correlation with the dollar as OIL at those levels will cause major collateral damage in many fronts so we'll get many variables. In very broad terms:

  1. In the short term, the relation is simple and direct. Soft oil ---> Strong dollar
  2. Mid term things get messy:

    1. given low interest rates across the developed world. Inflation can get a huge spank down especially in Europe which can affect hikes speed in the US and UK while in the EZ could accelerate QE to offset the deflation concerns. Meaning Oil soft ---> Dollar soft but also Euro strong...so do the math = mess and wide noise
    2. Emergent markets especially Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, etc can literally COLLAPSE (some like Ecuador, Nigeria, etc are on the borderline of the abysm already) which can bring politically instability in the even more volatile Russia/Europe front (eastern Europe and Europe in general). Also potential geopolitical conflicts can exacerbate by the rich oil Middle Eastern producers starting to suffer the impact of extended low prices. Meaning Oil soft ---> Dollar strong




  3. Long term too difficult to call:

  1. From collapse on the newly shale/oil US revolution new fields (dollar negative), to China benefiting from low oil and using as jumping board (dollar neutral) to come back from the crisis to a full blown deflation crisis (dollar positive via risk).

As you see its a complex topic that I am sure we can keep discussing in the future. For now a potential hike leg will just add oxygen to oil going down in the short term.

Quoting MarianneOslo
Only down from 12% I am very suprised to still see so little improvemnts in the eurosone after heavily quantative easing. Before the financial crisis the employment rate was 6,5% in the euro sone.
Well thats why all eyes are in Spain (which is turning around lately). Spain alone is contributing +/- 1/2 of that unemployment number.

Between 3 of the 19 members Greece, Spain and Portugal alone will now weight around 3/4 of the total unemployment numbers so one need to be a bit careful when assuming the whole EZ is collapsing (doesn't necessarily mean is booming either ... but is not only doom and gloom)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,478
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:23pm Aug 3, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
Stastistic goes the USD up when the oil goes down. I do not belive in rate hike from FED nor in september or in desember. Still I think the USD will rise as safe heaven. We have seen not much decline in the stock market but we will se soon and USD will rise although US are not raising rates. Break even for many oil producers is 45 USD so one it getting towards a level of less activity if the oil price stays at this level. Less activity is bad for USD In the shorter term the USD will rise in the longer term we will see a heavily...
next few months gonna be interesting
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,479
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:28pm Aug 3, 2015 3:28pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Tricky one. Assuming, oil gets smack down below $40 for an extended period of time the consequences can be VERY important to say the least. It will be extremely hard to establish a one to one correlation with the dollar as OIL at those levels will cause major collateral damage in many fronts so we'll get many variables. In very broad terms: In the short term, the relation is simple and direct. Soft oil ---> Strong dollar Mid term things get messy: given low interest rates across the developed world. Inflation can get a huge spank down especially...
t y Yep I'm tempted to go on hols and come back in Jan lol
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,480
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:29pm Aug 3, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Tricky one. Assuming, oil gets smack down below $40 for an extended period of time the consequences can be VERY important to say the least. It will be extremely hard to establish a one to one correlation with the dollar as OIL at those levels will cause major collateral damage in many fronts so we'll get many variables. In very broad terms: In the short term, the relation is simple and direct. Soft oil ---> Strong dollar Mid term things get messy: given low interest rates across the developed world. Inflation can get a huge spank down especially...

Coming figures from Spain unemployment change tmrw. I agree with you the importance of Spain and we see clearly the housing market is improving. Up 4% last year. I am following Cyprus very tight and not much improvements to see still in the housing market and I am suprised not more improvements due to low rates.
Housing market/labour are market strongly connected
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