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  • #8,061
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:57pm Aug 2, 2015 5:57pm
Quoting wizlon32
AkMaLiTo, Correct me if I am wrong but I would class the Stochastic divergence as bearish as it is making lower highs and lows while PA is making higher highs and lows. In my opinion this adds to the Bearish argument that the trend may be about to change direction at least in the short term.
The lower highs of the stoch aren't aligned with any swing endings in the PA, while the stoch's lower lows are aligned perfectly with higher lows of the PA, which produces a hidden bullish divergence... that divergence is more likely to happen when the price is reversing temporarily from a down trending price, which isn't the case here, but, it is still a bullish divergence to be taken seriously...
  • #8,062
  • Edited 6:18pm Aug 2, 2015 6:06pm | Edited 6:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} To simplfy your analyses just look at Oil chart.If oil goes up then UC will come down and opposite true.Oil is getting crashed because OPEC refused to cut production and USD is getting stronger as nearer we are getting to Sept. Weather there will be interest rate hike or not does not matter up to Sept 16 because market acts bullish which assumes its a big probability..
So that is another point to add to the bullish probabilities of the pair! this is getting more interesting
I honestly can't resist a short on a decade-resistance and a perfect bearish butterfly. but your analysis, alongside the bullish divergence and the strong week closure, are enough reasons for me to take a very small position, 25% of the position I originally intended, and I'll scale in if price went down...
thanks for your input Davit
  • #8,063
  • Aug 2, 2015 6:08pm Aug 2, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
{quote} The lower highs of the stoch aren't aligned with any swing endings in the PA, while the stoch's lower lows are aligned perfectly with higher lows of the PA, which produces a hidden bullish divergence... that divergence is more likely to happen when the price is reversing temporarily from a down trending price, which isn't the case here, but, it is still a bullish divergence to be taken seriously...
Thanks for the explanation. I don't quite get it but I will do a bit of research to help me understand.
Indentify > Plan > Accept > Execute
  • #8,064
  • Aug 2, 2015 7:40pm Aug 2, 2015 7:40pm
Went long on EG, short on UC. small positions and tight SL, hope they play to my favor
  • #8,065
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:57am Aug 3, 2015 2:57am
Bearish Deep Crab D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And falling's just another way to fly...
  • #8,066
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:17am Aug 3, 2015 3:17am
161 175 fib w 3 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,067
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:08am Aug 3, 2015 6:08am
Im selling @1.3175: SL@ 1.323 TP @1.31

Its probably going to be long term if SL holds out. Probably a mad choice, but CAD looks undervalued for too long.
  • #8,068
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:09am Aug 3, 2015 6:09am
Already 100+ pips up before the power hours! ATR/30 is ~100...
So I guess today is the day to decide if this will continue bullish or a reversal is starting today...
5 hours from now, if the daily candle is still that much of a bullish candle (or might even get bigger and hit 150 pip like friday's candle), I'll close all my shorts with minimal loss...
Or, if the power hours took the price down, we'll have a pin candle with a pretty long upper wick on a historical resistance, which I really hope it will happen considering am short on the pair
  • #8,069
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:16am Aug 3, 2015 9:16am
Quoting Dano12
161 175 fib w 3 ? {image}
Is this in the "fundamentals too strong so feck the techs" mode?

And tech-wise, is it really that "sky is the limit" now after 1.31 broken...
  • #8,070
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:47am Aug 3, 2015 9:47am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Is this in the "fundamentals too strong so feck the techs" mode? And tech-wise, is it really that "sky is the limit" now after 1.31 broken...
:nerd:we will see a trend is up everybody knows
  • #8,071
  • Aug 3, 2015 11:06am Aug 3, 2015 11:06am
Good trend is established.
  • #8,072
  • Aug 3, 2015 1:40pm Aug 3, 2015 1:40pm
Really nice trend, but way overdone short term...... new highs on USD/CAD. no new lows on Oil.... perhaps a sign of how over extended USD/CAD is currently, but there is still plenty of room to upside with all the fundamentals.
  • #8,073
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:19pm Aug 3, 2015 2:19pm
if resistance can push it back to 1.285 area over time
  • #8,074
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:54pm Aug 3, 2015 3:54pm
CAD has now been the weakest currency for two days in a row, and USD over the last 24 hours has been the strongest currency. This puts USD and CAD at opposite extremes and in my opinion are now ripe for a sharp pull back over the coming trading day.

I'm going to sell and hold for the next 24 hours.
  • #8,075
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:37pm Aug 3, 2015 6:37pm
Today Morgan Stanley placed a limit order to Long USD/CAD at 1.31, with a target at 1.36. They have one of the best rack records for currency trading over the last six months for institutions trading currencies that I have access to data. Currently 5 other banks are long including JP Morgan and Credit Suisse.

This week:
US non-farm payroll expectations are for a gain of 224k.
US unemployment at 5.3% to remain unchanged.
CAD unemployment at 6.8% to remain unchanged.

USDCAD Posts 3rd Highest Volume Day in 2015 As Oil Plunges
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educat...-August-3.html

High time frame candles are bearish but I'm bullish.
  • #8,076
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:54pm Aug 3, 2015 6:54pm
Quoting robertbruce
Today Morgan Stanley placed a limit order to Long USD/CAD at 1.31, with a target at 1.36. They have one of the best rack records for currency trading over the last six months for institutions trading currencies that I have access to data. Currently 5 other banks are long including JP Morgan and Credit Suisse. This week: US non-farm payroll expectations are for a gain of 224k. US unemployment at 5.3% to remain unchanged. CAD unemployment at 6.8% to remain unchanged. USDCAD Posts 3rd Highest Volume Day in 2015 As Oil Plunges https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educat...-August-3.html...
Nice man. Im short for 1.20000
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #8,077
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:55pm Aug 3, 2015 6:55pm
I trade wave v of (iii). I had a lot of trades on wave iii, but I have now only one.

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Trend is your the best friend. Ever
  • #8,078
  • Aug 3, 2015 10:25pm Aug 3, 2015 10:25pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
While running through my charts I found this pair to be standing exactly on an extremely interesting point, so I went into a deep analysis on the daily chart and thought I would share it here for whoever it concerns... Unlike the current price of this pair, this post will be boring, you've been warned! Everything about this chart is strongly bearish and suggesting an immediate reversal, except for one thing that suggests a burst through resistance and getting into a new land that this pair didn't visit in ~8 years.. Bearish probabilities: (1) A...
So today's D candle proves that I chose the wrong side to be on that trade! what a wasted beautiful butterfly...
I managed to get a few pips off EG scalp today, enough to cover my SL on this failing trade.. am still short on the pair, [email protected], and wouldn't move it whatever happens. It would be nice though if it pulled back to test 1.310x so I can get a BE on this trade.
  • #8,079
  • Aug 5, 2015 3:24am Aug 5, 2015 3:24am
wave 3 is shorter than 1. So i expect wave 5 to be shorter than 3
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  • #8,080
  • Aug 5, 2015 11:46am Aug 5, 2015 11:46am
Not totally on top of the content of the market today, but managed to take a small profit.

Realizing the manipulation taking place, I had to get back in and take it back

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