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  • #1,015,481
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:21am Aug 2, 2015 10:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} and china dumping usd would destroy china. so whats the point.. a usd is china buying stock in the u.s. they dont want to destroy that stock price. the stock price of a country buying a larger portion of their exports, more than anyone else. china would lose that silly argument hands down,, than a chain reaction to all those commodity countries..emu etc.
Right on... I only pointed out that we are vulnerable. China would cut their own throat at this stage so you are absolutely correct. What they can do is manipulate our currency with regards to big purchases such as a 30 plane Boeing deal and things like that. But indeed, they must be cautious. Becoming the largest debtor nation in history, the U.S. is vulnerable when we went from an 8 trillion debt at the end of Bush's term to 18 trillion debt in just six years during Obama's term. It does gives cause for concern since most of the money seems to be going to Wall Street and little into the actual economy; hence, there has been mediocre growth in the economy but the Dow Jones almost tripled in value. China would only make their move in a position of strength. They are are not there yet.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,015,482
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:28am Aug 2, 2015 10:28am
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  • #1,015,483
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:28am Aug 2, 2015 10:28am
China cut their USD holding in what form? Cut their bonds holding? Cut their currency holding? Cut their US stocks holding? each one has different effect. When guys talk about china's USD dump, you need to specify what kind of holdings they are going to cut.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,484
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:32am Aug 2, 2015 10:32am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} {quote} USDCAD Taking out of the highs will lead this pair to his next destination at 1.3180, breakout hasn't happened yet but when it does, I expect bounce from that level as it is 1.618 Ext AB-CD D1 (similar to setup on EURUSD H1 on Thursday) when the time comes closer will look to see where the new pivots for Month, Week and Daily for added confluence and less risk. There is also Weekly setup (price bounced previously off 1.27 Ext) if that level fails and before 1.34 I don't see anything else. D1 + W1 charts attached. {image} {image}
Hey Pedro,

Nice job, couple relevant charts.
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  • #1,015,485
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:34am Aug 2, 2015 10:34am
Quoting ffleo
China cut their USD holding in what form? Cut their bonds holding? Cut their currency holding? Cut their US stocks holding? each one has different effect. When guys talk about china's USD dump, you need to specify what kind of holdings they are going to cut.
Who are you talking to?
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,015,486
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:41am Aug 2, 2015 10:41am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Bingo. By only half a pip but still they manged it. These two are starting to look very similar {image}
the pattern you referred to is called pennant pattern. It can go either way when it breaks out depending on where it is located and the PA before it. Is it located in the half way to a big target? Is it located near the end of a big run where it sees a strong reversal force? Is it heading to the same place it has just been to test the same support or resistance?

By the way, people on Friday were talking about the official open hours of New York session. Not what each individual trader will react to the open hour and place their trade. They can place their trade 2 hour later or 3 hour later, but the New York session still opens at 8am sharp of Eastern time.


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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,487
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:43am Aug 2, 2015 10:43am
Quoting Taigen
{quote} Who are you talking to?
do I have obligation to answer your question? I do not think so
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,488
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:47am Aug 2, 2015 10:47am
isnt the yuan somewhat pegged to the dollar?....i could see then unloading usd to devaule the yuan to remain competitive as their economy shrinks and stock market bubble bursts if it hasnt already
  • #1,015,489
  • Edited 12:22pm Aug 2, 2015 10:47am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} do I have obligation to answer your question? I do not think so
Whoa dude. I just wanted clarification. I would respond if you were referring to my post(s). Don't shoot me... I'm just the piano player.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,015,490
  • Aug 2, 2015 10:50am Aug 2, 2015 10:50am
or do i have that wrong?
  • #1,015,491
  • Edited 11:29am Aug 2, 2015 10:58am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting koainnn
isnt the yuan somewhat pegged to the dollar?....i could see then unloading usd to devaule the yuan to remain competitive as their economy shrinks and stock market bubble bursts if it hasnt already
My spin is this. The U.S. is no longer operating from a position of strength as it has since the end of WWII. Until recently, all countries could not buy a single barrel of oil without using USD's. That is no longer the case. We're still King of the Mountain and we been up there for some time. I would not be surprised if some young-blood challenged us.

After Obama's gone, I would expect the Dow Jones Index to come down and come down hard. The index would make a great short. I'm thinking the Obama regime will try to pump it up to 20k before that happens though. That's how Jack Kennedy became super rich after the 1929 market crash. He shorted everything in sight.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,015,492
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:01pm Aug 2, 2015 12:01pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the pattern you referred to is called pennant pattern. It can go either way when it breaks out depending on where it is located and the PA before it. Is it located in the half way to a big target? Is it located near the end of a big run where it sees a strong reversal force? Is it heading to the same place it has just been to test the same support or resistance? By the way, people on Friday were talking about the official open hours of New York session. Not what each individual trader will react to the open hour and place their...
No they weren't. I was responding to this post where dragon said big movements are during equity market hours (agreeing with PharmOr who said to watch out because the US hadn't started yet (at 9 am NY time) ), to which you replied 'nonsense', and I pointed out that Cloggie (who was a trader respected by many here, including myself) agreed with that 'nonsense' and for a good logical reason.
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  • #1,015,493
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:20pm Aug 2, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} No they weren't. I was responding to this post where dragon said big movements are during equity market hours (agreeing with PharmOr who said to watch out because the US hadn't started yet (at 9 am NY time) ), to which you replied 'nonsense', and I pointed out that Cloggie (who was a trader respected by many here, including myself) agreed with that 'nonsense' and for a good logical reason. {image}
The big movements is always at 8:30am New York time at US data releases when the US stock market is not opened yet. Recently many big movements started at 5am New York time when Tokyo is just closed. Why you have to reference others (Cloggie) to support your own argument? You should have your own observation and data to support your argument, not what other people say or warship. Typical group mentality??
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,494
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:20pm Aug 2, 2015 12:20pm
I'm still long. Have a look at the attached screenshot.
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  • #1,015,495
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:23pm Aug 2, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} The big movements is always at 8:30am New York time at US data releases when the US stock market is not opened yet. Recently many big movements started at 5am New York time when Tokyo is just closed. Why you have to reference others (Cloggie) to support your own argument? You should have your own observation and data to support your argument, not what other people say or warship
Because Cloggie (if my memory serves me correctly, and insofar as you can believe what people say online) worked as a trader in the City (which is still the biggest center of FX trading in the world) and knew other traders who worked at trading desks there. And because it make logical sense due to the carry trade.
  • #1,015,496
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:25pm Aug 2, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Because Cloggie (if my memory serves me correctly, and insofar as you can believe what people say online) worked as a trader in the City (which is still the biggest center of FX trading in the world) and knew other traders who worked at trading desks there. And because it make logical sense due to the carry trade.
you have group mentality?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,497
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:27pm Aug 2, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Because Cloggie (if my memory serves me correctly, and insofar as you can believe what people say online) worked as a trader in the City (which is still the biggest center of FX trading in the world) and knew other traders who worked at trading desks there. And because it make logical sense due to the carry trade.
carry trade with stocks??
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,498
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:36pm Aug 2, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} carry trade with stocks??
Hedge funds borrow in one currency (the cheap one) to buy higher yielding assets, which can include stocks. The influence of the carry trade on stocks is well. One explanation: known. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/...s-wall-street/
  • #1,015,499
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:39pm Aug 2, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the pattern you referred to is called pennant pattern. It can go either way when it breaks out depending on where it is located and the PA before it. Is it located in the half way to a big target? Is it located near the end of a big run where it sees a strong reversal force? Is it heading to the same place it has just been to test the same support or resistance? By the way, people on Friday were talking about the official open hours of New York session. Not what each individual trader will react to the open hour and place...
As a matter of fact, if you assume that the EURUSD should go back to where it was before the US started printing money like crazy to finance the events that occurred in the aftermath of 9/11, then yes, it is. (Does that mean I think it can't go up? Of course not. It never goes anywhere in a straight line. But I think there's a pretty good probability that that's the eventual target.)
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  • #1,015,500
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:40pm Aug 2, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you have group mentality?
No. But I do pay attention when people who are experienced traders say something, and then I evaluate whether it makes sense. Which this does.
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