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  • #1,015,441
  • Aug 1, 2015 11:03am Aug 1, 2015 11:03am
Quoting Taigen
Everyone I suppose has their own criteria for what determines a trend on a given chart. If it is consistent then the indicators being used are working for you. I determine trends base on crossovers mainly such as the linear regression the EMA along with some MA's. The RSI is a good confirmation tool as well as others. I don't do the butterfly and pitchfork stuff though they're are many the swear by them. When I was in Mexico for three months, I relied mainly on just a couple indicators with my iPhone. The idea is to see patterns which can be defined...
That is something what I also saw. I think where they want to go is already predetermined, like you say, they use the news events to get there. Like last Friday, that 1,11 level still had to get touched, so they did it right on a news event. Sometimes we are asking ourselves why a currency is down with good news, in my opinion, sometimes they still have to touch certain levels. You see this better on higher timeframes(monthly and higher). You see sometimes gigantic wicks in the opposite direction, but the trend just continues afterwards. For example on the quarterly, it looks like the 1,1640 in the EU still has to get touched but fundamentally there is not a reason to get that high anymore with the rate hikes on the way. This was just an observation, I am probably totally wrong about this
  • #1,015,442
  • Aug 1, 2015 12:05pm Aug 1, 2015 12:05pm
No one in long position?
  • #1,015,443
  • Aug 1, 2015 12:16pm Aug 1, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting ceetee
{quote} That is something what I also saw. I think where they want to go is already predetermined, like you say, they use the news events to get there. Like last Friday, that 1,11 level still had to get touched, so they did it right on a news event. Sometimes we are asking ourselves why a currency is down with good news, in my opinion, sometimes they still have to touch certain levels. You see this better on higher timeframes(monthly and higher). You see sometimes gigantic wicks in the opposite direction, but the trend just continues afterwards....
You got my vote. When the Euro was up to 1.40xx's there was no justification for it. Both the USD and the EAU were pumping the quantitative easing machine at full capacity. Both currencies values are basically garbage but the perceived values are what they are. Each take their turn at the top and the bottom. The benefit on top is a strong currency. The downside is it can hurt the economy because it's at a high valuation point.

The problem with the USD is that it's vulnerable. If China wanted to dump their dollars, it would devastate the US economy. Now that many countries are no longer buying oil using dollars, it's valuation is getting more speculative. I think we will go to parity but that just a psychological guess--who knows? But it doesn't much matter. You should be making coin regardless if it's up or down.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,015,444
  • Aug 1, 2015 12:48pm Aug 1, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting Tal1983
No one in long position?
I am long ....
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #1,015,445
  • Aug 1, 2015 1:23pm Aug 1, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} I am long ....
1.14?
  • #1,015,446
  • Aug 1, 2015 1:24pm Aug 1, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting Taigen
{quote} Each take their turn at the top and the bottom. The benefit on top is a strong currency. The downside is it can hurt the economy because it's at a high valuation point. The problem with the USD is that it's vulnerable. If China wanted to dump their dollars, it would devastate the US economy.
Currencies are about interest rates & economic strength. US looking to raise rates & US economy probably better than most countries. So if they "dump" US$, what do they want in exchange? Euro, Ausie, Kiwi, Pound, gold, etc.....??? Not much looking very good so not quite so easy to just "dump" US$.

***Just my unprofessional opinion.
  • #1,015,447
  • Aug 1, 2015 1:51pm Aug 1, 2015 1:51pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Currencies are about interest rates & economic strength. US looking to raise rates & US economy probably better than most countries. So if they "dump" US$, what do they want in exchange? Euro, Ausie, Kiwi, Pound, gold, etc.....??? Not much looking very good so not quite so easy to just "dump" US$. ***Just my unprofessional opinion.
You're absolutely right. The currencies are so interconnected that the consequences would affect them all.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,015,448
  • Aug 1, 2015 2:12pm Aug 1, 2015 2:12pm
time to long euro: before next Friday, August 7th.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #1,015,449
  • Aug 1, 2015 4:15pm Aug 1, 2015 4:15pm
Quoting Ignat B.
My first English video about my wave trading https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeutnnnfdVI
your for teddy bear and

D1 - hammer candle - an option for the bull and s-h-s h4

Generally decision next week - Monday Tuesday candle d1 who will win the bull or bear
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,015,450
  • Edited 4:31pm Aug 1, 2015 4:21pm | Edited 4:31pm
Just covering all scenarios I see probable:

1. If it goes up from here: range: buy below 1.08, sell above 1.11 - no drift or drift up - possibly ascending wedge that attempts break below 1.08 later (in few weeks)
2. If it goes down from 1.08: range: buy below 1.06, sell above 1.09 - possible range drift down but drift is likely to reverse or if declinining wedge forms, break back to 1.1+
3. Volatility starts dropping in one of following ways:
- Could be seen as going into unpredictable compressing range. (triangle pattern) This could be followed by more unpredictable things.
- Slow pump and then quick dump attempting to break recent lows/highs and then the lows/highs
4. Big boys wake up and slam it one way or the other aggressively. Early august has often seen crazy account blowing moves in past.
  • #1,015,451
  • Aug 1, 2015 4:27pm Aug 1, 2015 4:27pm
big boy big boy big boy
wtf
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,015,452
  • Aug 1, 2015 4:28pm Aug 1, 2015 4:28pm
we don't know anything
  • #1,015,453
  • Edited 4:57pm Aug 1, 2015 4:44pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting NuNix
big boy big boy big boy wtf
If 20000+ lots hit futures in few hours one way in extremely obvious manner that to me says, it's bigger account than usual. Or skilled manipulator - but you'd think they have big account too... Of course it could be someone in their parents basement doing wash sales and eventually getting caught. Hard to tell. Doesn't really matter does it - if the psychological effect is the same and they also defend whatever trendlines they set up (though eventually they might have not to do so, as the trendlines could become self-fullfilling prophecy due to small traders acting on them)

Of course 20000 lots may happen every day.. but very rarely in the way I mean. Point is, the activity has consistent results. This goes years back.
  • #1,015,454
  • Aug 1, 2015 4:57pm Aug 1, 2015 4:57pm
Quoting fxjesus
{quote} If 20000+ lots hit futures in few hours one way in extremely obvious manner that to me says, it's bigger account than usual. Or skilled manipulator - but you'd think they have big account too... Of course it could be someone in their parents basement doing wash sales and eventually getting caught. Hard to tell. Doesn't really matter does it - if the psychological effect is the same and they also defend whatever trendlines they set up (though eventually they might have not to do so, as the trendlines could become self-fullfilling prophecy...
ok friend i believe your knowledge is greater than me
good luck
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,015,455
  • Aug 1, 2015 5:11pm Aug 1, 2015 5:11pm
since this is just petty much gambling why not call those 20000 lot gys whales like the casinos do....big boy i call my toddler when he uses the toilet bowl without leaving a mess LOL
  • #1,015,456
  • Aug 1, 2015 5:20pm Aug 1, 2015 5:20pm
im long from friday afternoon in a terrible entry and am sitting in a drawdown but ill give u my bullish case why price is going to atleast .1440 and quite possibly half way to 1.2200 in collusion aand manipulative way every conspiracy theorist will understand LOL if i was one of those whales or CB bankers or hedge funds i dont think id be too happy breaking down from here when we can all scheme to pump up prices closer to 1.2200 and really make out like pigs when the rate hike comes next year
  • #1,015,457
  • Aug 1, 2015 5:24pm Aug 1, 2015 5:24pm
plus the fact my daily and weekly charts both gave a buy signal to min. .1440...and on the monthly theres an unrequited resistance level that hasnt even come close to being in site....price loves revisiting old price points before continuing its trend....gator knows about that
  • #1,015,458
  • Edited 5:50pm Aug 1, 2015 5:39pm | Edited 5:50pm
Quoting koainnn
im long from friday afternoon in a terrible entry and am sitting in a drawdown but ill give u my bullish case why price is going to atleast .1440 and quite possibly half way to 1.2200 in collusion aand manipulative way every conspiracy theorist will understand LOL if i was one of those whales or CB bankers or hedge funds i dont think id be too happy breaking down from here when we can all scheme to pump up prices closer to 1.2200 and really make out like pigs when the rate hike comes next year
Why enter friday at some height of volatility, presumably on no surprising market shifting news? I'd rather exit by friday as fridays can be unpredictable due to weekly option expiries etc. Ok maybe you have a weekend gap based system ... Some have said the gap was filled but yeah I could see some logic in thinking that there's more room up (in terms of gapping during this weekend).
  • #1,015,459
  • Aug 1, 2015 5:43pm Aug 1, 2015 5:43pm
i follow my signals
  • #1,015,460
  • Aug 1, 2015 6:00pm Aug 1, 2015 6:00pm
Quoting koainnn
i follow my signals
Do you scale in? In backtesting an automated system of mine it seemed to improve results a bit. The times price breaks and doesn't come back are quite rare. I didn't actually run it live yet so maybe with live account it might not work as well who knows.
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