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  • #2,661
  • Jul 28, 2015 6:45am Jul 28, 2015 6:45am
I think regardless if the data is skewed or not if they don't go soon they won't be able to move rates. I think shorting the Euro seems to offer the greatest risk reward trade at the moment.

Link on comments from members of the Fed.

Mainly waiting for CPI and wage growth, both of which seem to be around their target zone.

Any comments from the smart economist out there. (Scott)
  • #2,662
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:12am Jul 28, 2015 7:12am
Quoting squawk
I think regardless if the data is skewed or not if they don't go soon they won't be able to move rates. I think shorting the Euro seems to offer the greatest risk reward trade at the moment. Link on comments from members of the Fed. Mainly waiting for CPI and wage growth, both of which seem to be around their target zone. Any comments from the smart economist out there. (Scott)
Hey Squawk,

Don't know about smart, but quite simply, they will raise rates due to one word: fear.

They fear the affects of ZIRP for too long and fear being stuck at 0 with possibility(probability) of crisis/recession. They fear their models(none of which work but...) when UE is low.(We can argue about validity of numbers and workforce part, but...) Irony is they also fear raising rates(are markets/economy addicted to qe?), but they won't so publicly promote this one for obvious reasons. Got to love it, create the problem, and then raise rates because you are stuck between a rock and a hard place. The argument, of course, is always things would have been much worse. Well, can't really prove that one and I would argue there never would have been a problem if not for their interference but....

So, market is pricing in about 50% chance in Sept, economist at 80%.....Guess the question is one or two before end of year, latest Fed was one.

My only question is how far and how fast? I don't think very far.....But when the rest of the world is in crisis mode/qe/printing/easing/negative, guess we are big fish in small pond.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,663
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:32am Jul 28, 2015 7:32am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey Squawk, Don't know about smart, but quite simply, they will raise rates due to one word: fear. They fear the affects of ZIRP for too long and fear being stuck at 0 with possibility(probability) of crisis/recession. They fear their models(none of which work but...) when UE is low.(We can argue about validity of numbers and workforce part, but...) Irony is they also fear raising rates(are markets/economy addicted to qe?), but they won't so publicly promote this one for obvious reasons. Got to love it, create the problem, and then raise...
Thanks Scott, great Synopsis. Thoughts along the same lines. Interest rates at zero for to long can never be good with the cause and effect with the relation to the huge amount of leverage out there at the moment. I think the fear of that unwinding is valid.

I think they have to raise shortly or they will miss the boat causing bigger problems down the road (even though it doesn't make sense to). Interesting to see how the markets will react to any verbiage around Sept rise now being that maybe not so many basis points to the upside when they move. Probably needs to be confirmation of 2 possible again before end of year.

Thanks Scott value your opinion a lot.
  • #2,664
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:41am Jul 28, 2015 7:41am
how long has jpy been struggling with interest rate cuts?

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has all these govt intervention made economy netter or have they just created more control over the people
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,665
  • Jul 28, 2015 10:24pm Jul 28, 2015 10:24pm
Hey guys,

Going to throw down a couple of charts. Let's say this, EU hay mucho, so stick with some others.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,666
  • Jul 28, 2015 10:34pm Jul 28, 2015 10:34pm
little Nu Big day tomorrow, let's see....
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  • #2,667
  • Jul 28, 2015 10:39pm Jul 28, 2015 10:39pm
Some areas of interest, see if any present...Figured I would share a few...
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  • #2,668
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:38am Jul 29, 2015 12:38am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Some areas of interest, see if any present...Figured I would share a few... {image}
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Morning Sir, 4 hour support just under 5600 , could see 5679/5770/5814 support goes 5540
  • #2,669
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:51am Jul 29, 2015 12:51am
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  • #2,670
  • Edited 4:25am Jul 30, 2015 4:11am | Edited 4:25am
morning all,
nice harmonic themed thread, i get the charts but the fundi talk is so over my head it's embarrassing

NZD/USD 1HR

if price can find support above 15m highs im in simples.

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Eur/usd 4hr

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  • #2,671
  • Jul 30, 2015 8:17am Jul 30, 2015 8:17am
Quoting Asr1
morning all, nice harmonic themed thread, i get the charts but the fundi talk is so over my head it's embarrassing NZD/USD 1HR if price can find support above 15m highs im in simples. {image} Eur/usd 4hr {image}
Thanks for charts, one more....
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  • #2,672
  • Jul 30, 2015 8:23am Jul 30, 2015 8:23am
So GDP day, headline miss, prior revision up, although not due to anything to get excited about......Fed still wants to hike rates, I think they really want Sept if possible. Allows test and room for more. They need room. But weakest ever, leads to.... On relative basis, how tight? But how far and how fast?......

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/...r/?mod=WSJBlog
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  • #2,673
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:02am Jul 30, 2015 11:02am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Thanks for charts, one more.... {image}
I think your right there mr scott, i saw it after price shot through the zone i had posted, its reacting to the 88.6 zone now but as its moved 100pips already today may wait until tomorrow to take a trade.
  • #2,674
  • Edited 11:33am Jul 30, 2015 11:12am | Edited 11:33am
GBP/CAD 1HR

Reacted nicely to the 1.13 level, price is moving faster than i can type but the 61.8 target is still a good 80+ pips away.

Shorting these GBP crosses is like trying to catch a moving train at times far too stressful

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gbp/nzd 1hr

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  • #2,675
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:10am Jul 31, 2015 8:10am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Thanks for charts, one more.... {image}

Update, alt, monthly, I did not catch this one....Maybe someone did or it is helpful in future....

Poor Janet.....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,676
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:15am Jul 31, 2015 9:15am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Update, alt, monthly, I did not catch this one....Maybe someone did or it is helpful in future.... Poor Janet..... {image} {image}
Hello sir just popped in with it being friday , missed the move , board meeting ,lol just trading gbus back , i have a chart but one might think it crazzzy , have a good weekend, as ever regards B .PS i think the above chart might be in play check 5677??
  • #2,677
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:29am Jul 31, 2015 9:29am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Hello sir just popped in with it being friday , missed the move , board meeting ,lol just trading gbus back , i have a chart but one might think it crazzzy , have a good weekend, as ever regards B .PS i think the above chart might be in play check 5677??
Hey B, almost time bring on crazy, I think I know where you are going with this, this smaller
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  • #2,678
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:36pm Jul 31, 2015 8:36pm
Hi Scott
AC is in nice harmonic spot.Took few shorts at 127 but....looks like oil is tanking fast.
Cad is getting killed with cheap oil and poor GDP.
Anyway thought to share
regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,679
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:05pm Jul 31, 2015 9:05pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Scott AC is in nice harmonic spot.Took few shorts at 127 but....looks like oil is tanking fast. Cad is getting killed with cheap oil and poor GDP. Anyway thought to share regards {image}
Hi Davit,

Yes, CAD bad, oil, and talk of recession...Was looking for CAD cypher today that never offered. Don't usually follow but took a look. AU bouncy 786 monthly(cypher) deep crab close by.
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  • #2,680
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:11pm Jul 31, 2015 9:11pm
I do follow CAD, pretty sure been posted here before. Sorry, summertime so less time on screen and if posting, usually not trading.
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